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Week 5 Overall Rankings & Results — PPR

Josh Allen is our #1 overall for Week 5 in PPR, ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs and Brock Purdy. The biggest riser since the last publish is Gunnar Helm (#265→#264); the biggest faller is Josh Palmer (#264→#291).

Results table

Week 5 OVERALL · PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range · bye-week teams (CAR, KC) excluded
RankPlayerTeamOppProjRangeActualFinishΔHitNote
Tier 1
1Josh Allen QB1
BUF @ LA
BUF@ LA (Mon)20.530.5OVERALL8+10.0MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 12.3–29.0.
2Jahmyr Gibbs RB1
DET @ ARI
DET@ ARI20.137.7OVERALL2+17.6HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 11.9–30.2.
3Brock Purdy QB2
SF @ SEA
SF@ SEA18.716.2OVERALL53-2.6HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 11.3–26.8.
4Bijan Robinson RB2
ATL vs BAL
ATLvs BAL18.515.8OVERALL56-2.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 11.2–27.9.
5Joe Burrow QB3
CIN @ MIA
CIN@ MIA18.424.6OVERALL18+6.2HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 11.1–25.8.
6CeeDee Lamb WR1
DAL vs TB · locked
DALvs TB (Thu)18.32.9OVERALL207-15.4MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 9.8–29.4.
7Jared Goff QB4
DET @ ARI
DET@ ARI18.128.9OVERALL11+10.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 11.3–25.3.
8Kyren Williams RB3
LA vs BUF
LAvs BUF (Mon)17.919.6OVERALL38+1.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 10.7–26.9.
9Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR2
SEA vs SF
SEAvs SF17.822.8OVERALL22+5.0HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 9.3–29.1.
10Dak Prescott QB5
DAL vs TB · locked
DALvs TB (Thu)17.412.6OVERALL81-4.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 10.8–24.4.
11Matthew Stafford QB6
LA vs BUF
LAvs BUF (Mon)16.827.3OVERALL13+10.5HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 10.0–23.9.
12Puka Nacua WR3
LA vs BUF
LAvs BUF (Mon)16.837.7OVERALL3+20.9MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 9.2–27.5.
13Chris Olave WR4
NO vs MIN
NOvs MIN16.58.6OVERALL126-7.9MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 9.1–27.3.
14Derrick Henry RB4
BAL @ ATL
BAL@ ATL16.321.0OVERALL31+4.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 9.1–25.3.
15Jacoby Brissett QB7
ARI vs DET
ARIvs DET15.925.3OVERALL16+9.4HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 9.0–23.0.
16Jonathan Taylor RB5
IND @ PIT
IND@ PIT15.811.2OVERALL95-4.6HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 8.9–24.4.
17Trevor Lawrence QB8
JAX vs PHI · locked
JAXvs PHI15.821.7OVERALL27+6.0HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 8.9–22.7.
18Deshaun Watson QB9
CLE @ NYJ
CLE@ NYJ15.612.2OVERALL84-3.4HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 9.2–22.4.
19C.J. Stroud QB10
HOU @ TEN
HOU@ TEN15.620.9OVERALL33+5.4HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 9.4–22.4.
20Tyler Shough QB11
NO vs MIN
NOvs MIN15.6-0.2OVERALL298-15.7MissP(active) 85% from the injury report; median 15.6 if he plays.
21Drake Maye QB12
NE vs LV
NEvs LV15.339.5OVERALL1+24.1MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 8.8–22.2.
22Zay Flowers WR5
BAL @ ATL · Questionable
BAL@ ATL15.314.6OVERALL64-0.7HitQuestionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 15.3 if he plays.
23Bo Nix QB13
DEN @ LAC
DEN@ LAC15.27.9OVERALL131-7.3MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 8.6–22.2.
24Amon-Ra St. Brown WR6
DET @ ARI
DET@ ARI15.212.9OVERALL80-2.3HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 7.9–24.9.
Showing 24 of 300 · tiers 1+ below

What the numbers say

7.2mean abs. error · PPR points, top 36 · Week 4: 5.2
0.41rank correlation · Spearman, top 36
4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
58%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 5
Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 OVERALL accuracy: MAE 5.2, top-12 hit 1/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 5 OVERALL rankings

Who is the best overall to start in Week 5 PPR?

Josh Allen, our OVERALL1 with a 20.5-point median; Jahmyr Gibbs is OVERALL2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

Why is DAL D/ST still ranked after playing?

Locked players stay on the board at their actual points so ranks and flex comparisons stay complete.

How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09
Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 4 OVERALL accuracyMAE 5.2 · top-12 hit 1/12
Rankings versionv3 · Sun, Oct 11, 11:35 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-1135
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version