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Week 4 Overall Rankings & Results — PPR

Jahmyr Gibbs is our #1 overall for Week 4 in PPR, ahead of Josh Allen and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. No rank moved since the last publish.

Results table

Week 4 OVERALL · PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range
RankPlayerTeamOppProjRangeActualFinishΔHitNote
Tier 1 · Must start
1Jahmyr Gibbs RB1
DET @ CAR
DET@ CAR21.817.7OVERALL45-4.1HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 13.3–32.1.
2Josh Allen QB1
BUF vs NE
BUFvs NE21.818.5OVERALL38-3.2HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 13.4–30.6.
3Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
SEA vs LAC
SEAvs LAC20.712.6OVERALL91-8.1HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 11.2–33.7.
4Brock Purdy QB2
SF vs DEN
SFvs DEN20.319.6OVERALL31-0.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 12.5–28.4.
5Bijan Robinson RB2
ATL @ NO
ATL@ NO (Mon)19.627.7OVERALL8+8.1HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 12.0–29.1.
6Tyler Shough QB3
NO vs ATL
NOvs ATL (Mon)19.415.9OVERALL62-3.4HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 11.5–27.5.
Tier 2
7Chris Olave WR2
NO vs ATL
NOvs ATL (Mon)17.819.6OVERALL32+1.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 9.7–29.1.
8Patrick Mahomes QB4
KC @ LV
KC@ LV17.717.0OVERALL47-0.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 10.6–25.4.
9Bryce Young QB5
CAR vs DET
CARvs DET17.621.5OVERALL28+3.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 10.5–25.0.
10Trevor Lawrence QB6
JAX @ CIN
JAX@ CIN17.513.1OVERALL83-4.4HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 10.3–25.0.
11Derrick Henry RB3
BAL vs TEN
BALvs TEN17.515.9OVERALL63-1.6HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 9.9–26.9.
12Case Keenum QB7
CHI vs NYJ
CHIvs NYJ17.40.0OVERALL267-17.4MissP(active) 85% from the injury report; median 17.4 if he plays.
13Jared Goff QB8
DET @ CAR
DET@ CAR17.220.5OVERALL30+3.3HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 10.3–24.4.
14Matthew Stafford QB9
LA @ PHI
LA@ PHI17.19.7OVERALL124-7.4MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 10.0–24.6.
15Joe Burrow QB10
CIN vs JAX
CINvs JAX17.023.7OVERALL17+6.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 10.1–24.0.
16Kenneth Walker III RB4
KC @ LV
KC@ LV16.830.9OVERALL5+14.1MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 9.9–25.5.
17Lamar Jackson QB11
BAL vs TEN
BALvs TEN16.618.9OVERALL36+2.3HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 10.2–23.4.
18Dak Prescott QB12
DAL @ HOU
DAL@ HOU16.618.1OVERALL40+1.5HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 9.9–23.4.
19Jonathan Taylor RB5
IND @ WAS · locked
IND@ WAS16.022.7OVERALL22+6.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 9.0–24.6.
20Christian McCaffrey RB6
SF vs DEN
SFvs DEN15.816.0OVERALL58+0.2HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 9.0–24.9.
21Jacoby Brissett QB13
ARI @ NYG
ARI@ NYG15.610.4OVERALL116-5.1HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 8.7–22.7.
22Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3
DET @ CAR
DET@ CAR15.515.5OVERALL660.0HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 8.0–25.4.
23Bo Nix QB14
DEN @ SF
DEN@ SF15.413.6OVERALL76-1.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 8.8–22.5.
24Deshaun Watson QB15
CLE vs PIT · locked
CLEvs PIT (Thu)15.212.9OVERALL87-2.2HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 8.9–21.7.
Showing 24 of 300 · tiers 2+ below

What the numbers say

5.2mean abs. error · PPR points, top 36 · Week 3: 6.6
0.23rank correlation · Spearman, top 36
1 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
78%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 4
Engine byline · no human author · Week 3 OVERALL accuracy: MAE 6.6, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 4 OVERALL rankings

Who is the best overall to start in Week 4 PPR?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our OVERALL1 with a 21.8-point median; Josh Allen is OVERALL2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

Why is PIT D/ST still ranked after playing?

Locked players stay on the board at their actual points so ranks and flex comparisons stay complete.

How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18
Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 3 OVERALL accuracyMAE 6.6 · top-12 hit 4/12
Rankings versionv7 · Sun, Oct 4, 11:35 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-1135
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version