Week 4 Running Back Rankings & Results — PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET (v6) · results scored Tue, Oct 6, 5:01 AM ET

Week2 3 4 5 6

Jahmyr Gibbs is our RB1 for Week 4 in PPR, ahead of Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. The biggest riser since the last publish is MarShawn Lloyd (RB44→RB41); the biggest faller is Breece Hall (RB17→RB46).

Week 4 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

Results table

Week 4 RB · PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	21.8	17.7	RB15	-4.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 13.3–32.1.
Tier 2 · Start
2	Bijan Robinson ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	19.6	27.7	RB5	+8.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 12.0–29.1.
Tier 3 · Start
3	Derrick Henry BAL vs TEN	BAL	vs TEN	17.5	15.9	RB19	-1.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 9.9–26.9.
4	Kenneth Walker III KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	16.8	30.9	RB3	+14.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 9.9–25.5.
5	Jonathan Taylor IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	16.0	22.7	RB9	+6.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 9.0–24.6.
6	Christian McCaffrey SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	15.8	16.0	RB18	+0.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 9.0–24.9.
Tier 4
7	Kyren Williams LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	13.9	36.7	RB1	+22.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 8.1–21.8.
8	Jaylen Warren PIT @ CLE · locked	PIT	@ CLE (Thu)	13.8	15.6	RB20	+1.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 8.1–21.6.
9	James Cook BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	13.5	16.3	RB17	+2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 7.3–21.5.
10	Chase Brown CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	13.4	19.1	RB12	+5.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 7.7–20.8.
11	Ashton Jeanty LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	13.2	18.6	RB13	+5.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 7.8–20.4.
12	D'Andre Swift CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	13.2	7.4	RB30	-5.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 7.1–21.0.
13	Javonte Williams DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	12.1	31.3	RB2	+19.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 6.6–19.3.
14	Cam Skattebo NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	12.1	7.6	RB29	-4.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 6.3–20.1.
15	Aaron Jones MIN vs MIA	MIN	vs MIA	11.7	16.8	RB16	+5.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 6.5–18.5.
16	Jeremiyah Love ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	11.6	6.5	RB33	-5.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 6.2–18.9.
17	Bucky Irving TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	11.0	6.1	RB34	-4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 6.0–18.2.
18	Chuba Hubbard CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	10.8	25.9	RB6	+15.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 5.6–17.7.
19	Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	10.5	18.4	RB14	+7.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 5.3–17.5.
20	Omarion Hampton LAC @ SEA	LAC	@ SEA	10.3	13.3	RB21	+3.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 4.9–17.8.
21	RJ Harvey DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	9.8	19.3	RB11	+9.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 4.7–16.7.
22	De'Von Achane MIA @ MIN	MIA	@ MIN	9.8	0.0	RB44	-9.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 5.2–16.2.
23	Tony Pollard TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	9.4	13.0	RB22	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 5.4–15.1.
24	David Montgomery HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	9.1	4.3	RB35	-4.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 4.1–15.5.
25	Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	8.9	11.1	RB24	+2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 3.9–15.5.
26	Travis Etienne NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	8.9	0.0	RB45	-8.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 4.6–14.9.
27	Saquon Barkley PHI vs LA	PHI	vs LA	8.8	2.0	RB41	-6.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 4.9–14.6.
28	TreVeyon Henderson NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	8.8	4.2	RB36	-4.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 3.9–15.8.
29	Quinshon Judkins CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	8.7	21.6	RB10	+12.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 4.5–14.7.
30	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS vs IND	WAS	vs IND	8.2	7.0	RB32	-1.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.6–14.7.
31	Kyle Monangai CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	7.7	28.0	RB4	+20.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.7–13.7.
32	J.K. Dobbins DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	7.1	7.2	RB31	+0.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 3.6–12.6.
33	Ty Johnson BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	7.1	3.2	RB38	-3.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.6–13.5.
34	Woody Marks HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	7.1	8.2	RB28	+1.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.9–13.2.
35	Kenny Gainwell TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	6.8	10.7	RB25	+3.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 2.8–12.6.
36	Blake Corum LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	6.5	3.1	RB39	-3.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 3.1–12.3.
37	Alvin Kamara NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	6.1	22.8	RB8	+16.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 2.6–11.5.
38	Tyjae Spears TEN @ BAL · Questionable	TEN	@ BAL	5.8	1.6	RB42	-4.2	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 5.8 if he plays.
39	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	5.6	9.5	RB27	+3.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 1.8–11.6.
40	Tyler Allgeier ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	5.5	12.9	RB23	+7.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 2.3–10.7.
41	MarShawn Lloyd GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	5.3	9.9	RB26	+4.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.1–10.6.
42	Brian Robinson ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	5.2	25.7	RB7	+20.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 1.8–11.1.
43	Raheim Sanders CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	5.2	3.6	RB37	-1.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 2.0–10.3.
44	Mike Washington Jr. LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	5.1	2.7	RB40	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 1.6–11.3.
45	Samaje Perine CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	5.1	0.7	RB43	-4.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 1.7–10.6.
46	Breece Hall NYJ @ CHI · Out	NYJ	@ CHI	0.0	0.0	RB46	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
47	Rachaad White WAS vs IND · Out	WAS	vs IND	0.0	0.0	RB47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Jadarian Price SEA vs LAC · Out	SEA	vs LAC	0.0	0.0	RB48	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 4+ below

What the numbers say

6.7mean abs. error · PPR points, top 36 · Week 3: 5.5

0.54rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

5 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

69%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 4

Engine byline · no human author · Week 3 RB accuracy: MAE 5.5, top-12 hit 6/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 4 RB rankings

Who is the best running back to start in Week 4 PPR?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our RB1 with a 21.8-point median; Bijan Robinson is RB2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18

Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Week 3 RB accuracyMAE 5.5 · top-12 hit 6/12

Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 4 · other positionsQuarterback Wide Receiver Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

RB · other formatsWeek 4 RB — Half-PPR Week 4 RB — Standard

RB · other weeksWeek 2 RB Week 3 RB Week 5 RB Week 6 RB Rest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

This weekWeek 4 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version