MIN D/ST is our DST1 for Week 4 in PPR, ahead of BAL D/ST and PIT D/ST. The biggest riser since the last publish is LA D/ST (DST19→DST12); the biggest faller is IND D/ST (DST16→DST23).
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Must start | ||||||||||
| 1 | MIN D/ST MIN vs MIA | MIN | vs MIA | 11.0 | 8.0 | DST4 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 6.0–17.0. | |
| Tier 2 | ||||||||||
| 2 | BAL D/ST BAL vs TEN | BAL | vs TEN | 7.0 | 6.0 | DST9 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 3 | PIT D/ST PIT @ CLE | PIT | @ CLE (Thu) | 7.0 | 6.0 | DST10 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 4 | SEA D/ST SEA vs LAC | SEA | vs LAC | 7.0 | 10.0 | DST2 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 5 | CHI D/ST CHI vs NYJ | CHI | vs NYJ | 6.0 | 7.0 | DST7 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 6 | CIN D/ST CIN vs JAX | CIN | vs JAX | 6.0 | 4.0 | DST20 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 7 | CLE D/ST CLE vs PIT | CLE | vs PIT (Thu) | 6.0 | 9.0 | DST3 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 8 | DEN D/ST DEN @ SF | DEN | @ SF | 6.0 | 4.0 | DST21 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 9 | DET D/ST DET @ CAR | DET | @ CAR | 6.0 | 2.0 | DST26 | -4.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 10 | GB D/ST GB @ TB | GB | @ TB | 6.0 | 8.0 | DST5 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 11 | HOU D/ST HOU vs DAL | HOU | vs DAL | 6.0 | 4.0 | DST22 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 12 | LA D/ST LA @ PHI | LA | @ PHI | 6.0 | 5.0 | DST13 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 13 | LV D/ST LV vs KC | LV | vs KC | 6.0 | 1.0 | DST28 | -5.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 14 | NO D/ST NO vs ATL | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 6.0 | -3.0 | DST32 | -9.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 15 | ATL D/ST ATL @ NO | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 5.0 | 4.0 | DST23 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 16 | BUF D/ST BUF vs NE | BUF | vs NE | 5.0 | 4.0 | DST24 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 17 | CAR D/ST CAR vs DET | CAR | vs DET | 5.0 | 1.0 | DST29 | -4.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 18 | JAX D/ST JAX @ CIN | JAX | @ CIN | 5.0 | 7.0 | DST8 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 19 | KC D/ST KC @ LV | KC | @ LV | 5.0 | 4.0 | DST25 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 20 | LAC D/ST LAC @ SEA | LAC | @ SEA | 5.0 | 6.0 | DST11 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 21 | TB D/ST TB vs GB | TB | vs GB | 5.0 | 5.0 | DST14 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 22 | ARI D/ST ARI @ NYG | ARI | @ NYG | 4.0 | 6.0 | DST12 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 23 | IND D/ST IND @ WAS | IND | @ WAS | 4.0 | 8.0 | DST6 | +4.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 24 | NE D/ST NE @ BUF | NE | @ BUF | 4.0 | 5.0 | DST15 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 25 | NYG D/ST NYG vs ARI | NYG | vs ARI | 4.0 | 14.0 | DST1 | +10.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 26 | NYJ D/ST NYJ @ CHI | NYJ | @ CHI | 4.0 | 5.0 | DST16 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 27 | PHI D/ST PHI vs LA | PHI | vs LA | 4.0 | 5.0 | DST17 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 1.0–8.0. | |
| 28 | SF D/ST SF vs DEN | SF | vs DEN | 4.0 | 1.0 | DST30 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 29 | WAS D/ST WAS vs IND | WAS | vs IND | 4.0 | 5.0 | DST18 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 30 | DAL D/ST DAL @ HOU | DAL | @ HOU | 3.0 | 1.0 | DST31 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 0.0–7.0. | |
| 31 | MIA D/ST MIA @ MIN | MIA | @ MIN | 3.0 | 5.0 | DST19 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 0.0–8.0. | |
| 32 | TEN D/ST TEN @ BAL | TEN | @ BAL | 3.0 | 2.0 | DST27 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 0.0–8.0. | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 2+ below
What the numbers say
2.3mean abs. error · PPR points, top 24 · Week 3: 4.6
0.27rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
7 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
92%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
The engine's read on Week 4
Engine byline · no human author · Week 3 DST accuracy: MAE 4.6, top-12 hit 7/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 4 DST rankings
Who is the best defense to start in Week 4 PPR?
MIN D/ST, our DST1 with a 11.0-point median; BAL D/ST is DST2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18
Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 3 DST accuracyMAE 4.6 · top-12 hit 7/12
Rankings versionv5 · Tue, Sep 29, 2:32 PM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w4-20260929T1832
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version