MIN D/ST is our DST1 for Week 3 in PPR, ahead of JAX D/ST and LAC D/ST. The biggest riser since the last publish is LA D/ST (DST11→DST8); the biggest faller is CHI D/ST (DST14→DST16).
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||||||||||
| 1 | MIN D/ST MIN @ TB · locked | MIN | @ TB | 7.0 | 17.0 | DST1 | +10.0 | Hit | Played: 17.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 2 | JAX D/ST JAX vs NE · locked | JAX | vs NE | 8.0 | 16.0 | DST2 | +8.0 | Hit | Played: 16.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 2 | ||||||||||
| 3 | LAC D/ST LAC @ BUF · locked | LAC | @ BUF | 1.0 | 14.0 | DST3 | +13.0 | Hit | Played: 14.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 3 | ||||||||||
| 4 | LV D/ST LV @ NO · locked | LV | @ NO | 5.0 | 12.0 | DST5 | +7.0 | Hit | Played: 12.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 5 | HOU D/ST HOU @ IND · locked | HOU | @ IND | 5.0 | 11.0 | DST7 | +6.0 | Hit | Played: 11.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 6 | WAS D/ST WAS vs SEA · locked | WAS | vs SEA | 5.0 | 11.0 | DST8 | +6.0 | Hit | Played: 11.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 4 | ||||||||||
| 7 | KC D/ST KC @ MIA · locked | KC | @ MIA | 8.0 | 8.0 | DST9 | 0.0 | Hit | Played: 8.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 8 | LA D/ST LA @ DEN · locked | LA | @ DEN | 8.0 | 2.0 | DST23 | -6.0 | Miss | In progress — locked at his projection (8.0, 20–80 3.0–13.0); actual lands when the game is final. | |
| 9 | NYG D/ST NYG vs TEN · locked | NYG | vs TEN | 7.0 | 8.0 | DST10 | +1.0 | Hit | Played: 8.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 10 | DEN D/ST DEN vs LA · locked | DEN | vs LA | 7.0 | 14.0 | DST4 | +7.0 | Hit | In progress — locked at his projection (7.0, 20–80 3.0–12.0); actual lands when the game is final. | |
| 11 | DET D/ST DET vs NYJ · locked | DET | vs NYJ | 6.0 | 7.0 | DST11 | +1.0 | Hit | Played: 7.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 12 | TEN D/ST TEN @ NYG · locked | TEN | @ NYG | 6.0 | 7.0 | DST12 | +1.0 | Hit | Played: 7.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 13 | ATL D/ST ATL @ GB · locked | ATL | @ GB (Thu) | 6.0 | 6.0 | DST13 | 0.0 | Hit | Played: 6.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 14 | CLE D/ST CLE vs CAR · locked | CLE | vs CAR | 2.0 | 6.0 | DST14 | +4.0 | Hit | Played: 6.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 15 | BUF D/ST BUF vs LAC · locked | BUF | vs LAC | 8.0 | 5.0 | DST15 | -3.0 | Hit | Played: 5.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 16 | CHI D/ST CHI vs PHI | CHI | vs PHI (Mon) | 5.0 | 12.0 | DST6 | +7.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 17 | CIN D/ST CIN @ PIT · locked | CIN | @ PIT | 10.0 | 5.0 | DST16 | -5.0 | Hit | Played: 5.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 18 | PHI D/ST PHI @ CHI | PHI | @ CHI (Mon) | 5.0 | 0.0 | DST28 | -5.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 19 | TB D/ST TB vs MIN · locked | TB | vs MIN | 4.0 | 5.0 | DST17 | +1.0 | Hit | Played: 5.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 20 | BAL D/ST BAL @ DAL · locked | BAL | @ DAL | 4.0 | 4.0 | DST18 | 0.0 | Hit | Played: 4.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 21 | CAR D/ST CAR @ CLE · locked | CAR | @ CLE | 8.0 | 4.0 | DST19 | -4.0 | Hit | Played: 4.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 22 | IND D/ST IND vs HOU · locked | IND | vs HOU | 5.0 | 4.0 | DST20 | -1.0 | Hit | Played: 4.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 23 | PIT D/ST PIT vs CIN · locked | PIT | vs CIN | 6.0 | 3.0 | DST21 | -3.0 | Hit | Played: 3.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 24 | SF D/ST SF vs ARI · locked | SF | vs ARI | 6.0 | 3.0 | DST22 | -3.0 | Hit | Played: 3.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 25 | MIA D/ST MIA vs KC · locked | MIA | vs KC | 2.0 | 2.0 | DST24 | 0.0 | Hit | Played: 2.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 26 | NO D/ST NO vs LV · locked | NO | vs LV | 5.0 | 1.0 | DST25 | -4.0 | Hit | Played: 1.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 27 | NYJ D/ST NYJ @ DET · locked | NYJ | @ DET | 2.0 | 1.0 | DST26 | -1.0 | Hit | Played: 1.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 28 | SEA D/ST SEA @ WAS · locked | SEA | @ WAS | 6.0 | 1.0 | DST27 | -5.0 | Hit | Played: 1.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 5 | ||||||||||
| 29 | DAL D/ST DAL vs BAL · locked | DAL | vs BAL | 3.0 | -1.0 | DST29 | -4.0 | Hit | Played: -1.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 30 | NE D/ST NE @ JAX · locked | NE | @ JAX | 5.0 | -1.0 | DST30 | -6.0 | Hit | Played: -1.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 31 | GB D/ST GB vs ATL · locked | GB | vs ATL (Thu) | 10.0 | -2.0 | DST31 | -12.0 | Hit | Played: -2.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 6 | ||||||||||
| 32 | ARI D/ST ARI @ SF · locked | ARI | @ SF | 3.0 | -4.0 | DST32 | -7.0 | Hit | Played: -4.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 4+ below
What the numbers say
4.6mean abs. error · PPR points, top 24 · Week 2: 4.7
0.20rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
7 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
50%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 3
Engine byline · no human author · Week 2 DST accuracy: MAE 4.7, top-12 hit 10/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 3 DST rankings
Who is the best defense to start in Week 3 PPR?
MIN D/ST, our DST1 with a 7.0-point median; JAX D/ST is DST2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
Why is MIN D/ST still ranked after playing?
Locked players stay on the board at their actual points so ranks and flex comparisons stay complete.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w3-2026-09-28+mkt-2026-w03-2026-09-28-15
Market2026-w03-2026-09-29-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 2 DST accuracyMAE 4.7 · top-12 hit 10/12
Rankings versionv3 · Mon, Sep 28, 11:20 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w3-20260928T1520
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
DST · other formatsOnly PPR is published for week 3.
VersionsRankings vdfb072cf· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w3-2026-09-28+mkt-2026-w03-2026-09-28-15· lines 2026-w03-2026-09-29-08· injuries 2026-09-28T22:45:40Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version