Brock Purdy is our QB1 for Week 3 in PPR, ahead of Sam Darnold and Geno Smith. No rank moved since the last publish.
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||||||||||
| 1 | Brock Purdy SF vs ARI · locked | SF | vs ARI | 20.2 | 31.3 | QB1 | +11.1 | Hit | Played: 31.3 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 2 | ||||||||||
| 2 | Sam Darnold SEA @ WAS · locked | SEA | @ WAS | 4.4 | 27.7 | QB2 | +23.3 | Hit | Played: 27.7 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 3 | Geno Smith NYJ @ DET · locked | NYJ | @ DET | 12.1 | 26.0 | QB3 | +13.9 | Hit | Played: 26.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 4 | Jacoby Brissett ARI @ SF · locked | ARI | @ SF | 13.1 | 25.6 | QB4 | +12.5 | Hit | Played: 25.6 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 5 | Tyler Shough NO vs LV · locked | NO | vs LV | 17.8 | 23.8 | QB6 | +6.0 | Hit | Played: 23.8 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers PIT vs CIN · locked | PIT | vs CIN | 11.8 | 22.7 | QB7 | +10.9 | Hit | Played: 22.7 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 7 | Joe Burrow CIN @ PIT · locked | CIN | @ PIT | 16.1 | 22.6 | QB8 | +6.5 | Hit | Played: 22.6 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 8 | Kirk Cousins LV @ NO · locked | LV | @ NO | 13.6 | 22.2 | QB9 | +8.6 | Hit | Played: 22.2 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 3 | ||||||||||
| 9 | Lamar Jackson BAL @ DAL · locked | BAL | @ DAL | 16.0 | 20.4 | QB11 | +4.5 | Hit | Played: 20.4 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 10 | Marcus Mariota WAS vs SEA · locked | WAS | vs SEA | 0.0 | 20.4 | QB12 | +20.4 | Hit | Played: 20.4 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 11 | Deshaun Watson CLE vs CAR · locked | CLE | vs CAR | 15.0 | 20.3 | QB13 | +5.3 | Hit | Played: 20.3 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 12 | Trevor Lawrence JAX vs NE · locked | JAX | vs NE | 17.1 | 19.8 | QB14 | +2.7 | Hit | Played: 19.8 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 13 | Jared Goff DET vs NYJ · locked | DET | vs NYJ | 19.2 | 19.4 | QB15 | +0.2 | Hit | Played: 19.4 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 14 | Dak Prescott DAL vs BAL · locked | DAL | vs BAL | 16.4 | 18.9 | QB16 | +2.6 | Hit | Played: 18.9 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 15 | Jordan Love GB vs ATL · locked | GB | vs ATL (Thu) | 14.7 | 18.5 | QB17 | +3.8 | Hit | Played: 18.5 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 16 | Matthew Stafford LA @ DEN · locked | LA | @ DEN | 17.9 | 20.9 | QB10 | +3.0 | Hit | In progress — locked at his projection (17.9, 20–80 10.6–25.7); actual lands when the game is final. | |
| 17 | Josh Allen BUF vs LAC · locked | BUF | vs LAC | 23.8 | 17.5 | QB18 | -6.3 | Hit | Played: 17.5 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 18 | Jalen Hurts PHI @ CHI | PHI | @ CHI (Mon) | 16.2 | 12.6 | QB23 | -3.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 9.4–23.6. | |
| 19 | Patrick Mahomes KC @ MIA · locked | KC | @ MIA | 19.0 | 15.9 | QB19 | -3.1 | Hit | Played: 15.9 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 4 | ||||||||||
| 20 | Michael Penix Jr. ATL @ GB · locked | ATL | @ GB (Thu) | 6.8 | 14.0 | QB20 | +7.2 | Hit | Played: 14.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 21 | Bo Nix DEN vs LA · locked | DEN | vs LA | 13.9 | 24.1 | QB5 | +10.2 | Miss | In progress — locked at his projection (13.9, 20–80 8.0–20.3); actual lands when the game is final. | |
| 22 | Bryce Young CAR @ CLE · locked | CAR | @ CLE | 17.8 | 13.6 | QB21 | -4.2 | Hit | Played: 13.6 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 23 | Justin Herbert LAC @ BUF · locked | LAC | @ BUF | 13.7 | 12.7 | QB22 | -1.0 | Hit | Played: 12.7 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 5 | ||||||||||
| 24 | C.J. Stroud HOU @ IND · locked | HOU | @ IND | 16.1 | 11.7 | QB24 | -4.4 | Hit | Played: 11.7 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 25 | Baker Mayfield TB vs MIN · locked | TB | vs MIN | 13.0 | 11.3 | QB25 | -1.7 | Hit | Played: 11.3 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 26 | Kyler Murray MIN @ TB · locked | MIN | @ TB | 0.0 | 10.4 | QB26 | +10.4 | Hit | Played: 10.4 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 27 | Malik Willis MIA vs KC · locked | MIA | vs KC | 12.8 | 10.0 | QB27 | -2.8 | Hit | Played: 10.0 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| 28 | Cam Ward TEN @ NYG · locked | TEN | @ NYG | 12.5 | 9.4 | QB28 | -3.0 | Hit | Played: 9.4 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 6 | ||||||||||
| 29 | Daniel Jones IND vs HOU · locked | IND | vs HOU | 12.2 | 7.9 | QB29 | -4.3 | Hit | Played: 7.9 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 7 | ||||||||||
| 30 | Jameis Winston NYG vs TEN · locked | NYG | vs TEN | 8.9 | 6.1 | QB30 | -2.8 | Hit | Played: 6.1 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 8 | ||||||||||
| 31 | Drake Maye NE @ JAX · locked | NE | @ JAX | 14.3 | 3.8 | QB31 | -10.6 | Hit | Played: 3.8 actual — kept on the board at his score. | |
| Tier 9 · Start if active | ||||||||||
| 32 | Tyson Bagent CHI vs PHI · Questionable | CHI | vs PHI (Mon) | 2.6 | 0.0 | QB32 | -2.6 | Hit | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sun 23:19 ET): P(active) 87% — median 2.6 if he plays. | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 5+ below
What the numbers say
5.1mean abs. error · PPR points, top 24 · Week 2: 7.2
0.37rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
79%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 3
Engine byline · no human author · Week 2 QB accuracy: MAE 7.2, top-12 hit 6/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 3 QB rankings
Who is the best quarterback to start in Week 3 PPR?
Brock Purdy, our QB1 with a 20.2-point median; Sam Darnold is QB2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
Why is Brock Purdy still ranked after playing?
Locked players stay on the board at their actual points so ranks and flex comparisons stay complete.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w3-2026-09-28+mkt-2026-w03-2026-09-28-15
Market2026-w03-2026-09-29-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 2 QB accuracyMAE 7.2 · top-12 hit 6/12
Rankings versionv4 · Mon, Sep 28, 6:45 PM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w3-1845
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
QB · other formatsOnly PPR is published for week 3.
VersionsRankings vdfb072cf· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w3-2026-09-28+mkt-2026-w03-2026-09-28-15· lines 2026-w03-2026-09-29-08· injuries 2026-09-28T22:45:40Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version