Week 4 Running Back Rankings & Results — Standard

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET (v6) · results scored Tue, Oct 6, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jahmyr Gibbs is our RB1 for Week 4 in Standard, ahead of Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson. The biggest riser since the last publish is Alvin Kamara (RB43→RB40); the biggest faller is Breece Hall (RB17→RB46).

Week 4 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

Results table

Week 4 RB · Standard · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	17.3	13.7	RB15	-3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 9.9–26.7.
2	Derrick Henry BAL vs TEN	BAL	vs TEN	16.2	13.9	RB14	-2.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 8.8–25.5.
3	Bijan Robinson ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	15.8	26.7	RB3	+10.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 9.2–24.5.
Tier 2 · Start
4	Kenneth Walker III KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	13.6	29.9	RB1	+16.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 7.6–21.6.
5	Jonathan Taylor IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	13.5	21.7	RB9	+8.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 7.0–21.5.
Tier 3
6	James Cook BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	12.1	14.3	RB13	+2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 6.4–19.7.
7	Christian McCaffrey SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	11.6	13.0	RB16	+1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 5.8–19.5.
8	Jaylen Warren PIT @ CLE · locked	PIT	@ CLE (Thu)	11.1	12.6	RB18	+1.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 6.2–18.0.
9	Kyren Williams LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	11.0	26.7	RB4	+15.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 5.9–18.0.
10	D'Andre Swift CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	11.0	5.4	RB32	-5.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 5.6–18.4.
11	Chase Brown CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	10.5	8.1	RB27	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 5.4–17.2.
12	Ashton Jeanty LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	10.1	12.6	RB19	+2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 5.7–16.3.
13	Javonte Williams DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	10.0	26.3	RB5	+16.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 4.9–16.5.
14	Cam Skattebo NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	9.9	6.6	RB28	-3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 4.5–17.1.
15	Aaron Jones MIN vs MIA	MIN	vs MIA	9.3	12.8	RB17	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 5.0–15.6.
16	Jeremiyah Love ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	8.9	5.5	RB30	-3.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 4.1–15.4.
17	Omarion Hampton LAC @ SEA	LAC	@ SEA	8.5	11.3	RB20	+2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 3.6–15.4.
18	Chuba Hubbard CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	8.3	24.9	RB6	+16.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 3.9–14.7.
19	Bucky Irving TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	8.0	6.1	RB29	-1.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 4.0–14.4.
20	TreVeyon Henderson NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	7.9	4.2	RB37	-3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 3.2–14.6.
21	Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	7.8	15.4	RB12	+7.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 3.5–14.2.
22	Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	7.6	9.1	RB24	+1.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 3.1–13.9.
23	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS vs IND	WAS	vs IND	7.4	5.0	RB34	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 2.9–13.7.
24	Saquon Barkley PHI vs LA	PHI	vs LA	7.4	1.0	RB41	-6.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 4.1–13.0.
25	Tony Pollard TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	7.3	11.0	RB21	+3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 4.2–12.5.
26	David Montgomery HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	7.3	4.3	RB36	-3.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.9–13.1.
27	De'Von Achane MIA @ MIN	MIA	@ MIN	7.1	0.0	RB42	-7.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 3.6–13.1.
28	Travis Etienne NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	6.3	0.0	RB43	-6.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 3.1–11.7.
29	Kyle Monangai CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	6.1	27.0	RB2	+20.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 2.9–11.8.
30	RJ Harvey DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	6.1	9.3	RB23	+3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 2.4–12.0.
31	J.K. Dobbins DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	6.0	5.2	RB33	-0.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 3.0–11.5.
32	Quinshon Judkins CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	5.8	15.6	RB11	+9.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 2.9–11.1.
33	Blake Corum LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	5.2	2.1	RB38	-3.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.5–10.9.
34	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	4.8	9.5	RB22	+4.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 1.5–11.0.
35	Woody Marks HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	4.8	8.2	RB26	+3.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 1.7–10.6.
36	Ty Johnson BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	4.5	1.2	RB40	-3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 1.4–10.2.
37	Mike Washington Jr. LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	4.3	1.7	RB39	-2.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 1.3–10.6.
38	Brian Robinson ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	4.2	24.7	RB7	+20.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 1.4–10.0.
39	Emanuel Wilson SEA vs LAC	SEA	vs LAC	4.2	24.0	RB8	+19.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 2.0–9.0.
40	Alvin Kamara NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	3.7	17.8	RB10	+14.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 1.4–8.6.
41	Kenny Gainwell TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	3.6	8.7	RB25	+5.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 1.2–8.9.
42	MarShawn Lloyd GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	3.4	4.9	RB35	+1.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 1.2–8.6.
43	Tank Bigsby PHI vs LA	PHI	vs LA	3.4	5.5	RB31	+2.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 1.0–8.9.
44	Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	3.4	-0.1	RB47	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 1.2–8.5.
45	Kendre Miller NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	3.4	-0.1	RB48	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 1.1–9.0.
46	Breece Hall NYJ @ CHI · Out	NYJ	@ CHI	0.0	0.0	RB44	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
47	Rachaad White WAS vs IND · Out	WAS	vs IND	0.0	0.0	RB45	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Jadarian Price SEA vs LAC · Out	SEA	vs LAC	0.0	0.0	RB46	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 3+ below

What the numbers say

5.9mean abs. error · Standard points, top 36

0.53rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

58%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 4

Engine byline · no human author

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 4 RB rankings

Who is the best running back to start in Week 4 Standard?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our RB1 with a 17.3-point median; Derrick Henry is RB2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18

Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Accuracyscored after the week flips

Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 4 · other positionsQuarterback Wide Receiver Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

RB · other formatsWeek 4 RB — PPR Week 4 RB — Half-PPR

RB · other weeksWeek 5 RB Week 6 RB Rest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

This weekWeek 4 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version