George Kittle is our TE1 for Week 4 in Standard, ahead of Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. No rank moved since the last publish.
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||||||||||
| 1 | George Kittle SF vs DEN | SF | vs DEN | 7.6 | 13.0 | TE3 | +5.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 2.6–14.2. | |
| 2 | Brock Bowers LV vs KC | LV | vs KC | 7.3 | 14.6 | TE1 | +7.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 2.6–13.6. | |
| 3 | Trey McBride ARI @ NYG | ARI | @ NYG | 7.0 | 3.1 | TE22 | -3.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 2.6–13.5. | |
| 4 | Juwan Johnson NO vs ATL | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 6.5 | 5.9 | TE16 | -0.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 2.3–12.9. | |
| 5 | Harold Fannin Jr. CLE vs PIT · locked | CLE | vs PIT (Thu) | 6.0 | 8.7 | TE8 | +2.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 1.9–11.7. | |
| 6 | Travis Kelce KC @ LV | KC | @ LV | 5.5 | 1.5 | TE23 | -4.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 2.1–11.3. | |
| 7 | Dalton Kincaid BUF vs NE | BUF | vs NE | 5.1 | 0.7 | TE28 | -4.4 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.0–10.8. | |
| 8 | Dalton Schultz HOU vs DAL | HOU | vs DAL | 4.7 | 0.9 | TE27 | -3.8 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.0–10.1. | |
| 9 | Kenyon Sadiq NYJ @ CHI · Questionable | NYJ | @ CHI | 4.7 | 0.0 | TE29 | -4.7 | Miss | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 86% — median 4.7 if he plays. | |
| 10 | Darren Waller CAR vs DET | CAR | vs DET | 4.5 | 3.6 | TE20 | -0.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 1.2–10.2. | |
| 11 | Tucker Kraft GB @ TB | GB | @ TB | 4.4 | 10.5 | TE5 | +6.1 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 1.8–9.9. | |
| 12 | Sam LaPorta DET @ CAR | DET | @ CAR | 4.4 | 14.4 | TE2 | +10.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 1.8–9.9. | |
| 13 | Tyler Warren IND @ WAS · locked | IND | @ WAS | 4.0 | 4.1 | TE18 | +0.1 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 1.2–9.8. | |
| 14 | Tyler Higbee LA @ PHI | LA | @ PHI | 3.5 | 6.7 | TE13 | +3.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 1.0–9.1. | |
| 15 | Isaiah Likely NYG vs ARI | NYG | vs ARI | 3.5 | 6.6 | TE14 | +3.1 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 16 | Mike Gesicki CIN vs JAX | CIN | vs JAX | 3.5 | 10.0 | TE6 | +6.5 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 1.0–9.1. | |
| 17 | Jake Ferguson DAL @ HOU | DAL | @ HOU | 3.3 | 1.1 | TE26 | -2.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 0.7–8.8. | |
| 18 | Cade Otton TB vs GB | TB | vs GB | 3.3 | 3.7 | TE19 | +0.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 1.5–7.9. | |
| 19 | Brenton Strange JAX @ CIN | JAX | @ CIN | 3.0 | 9.5 | TE7 | +6.5 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 0.9–8.5. | |
| 20 | AJ Barner SEA vs LAC | SEA | vs LAC | 2.9 | 1.2 | TE25 | -1.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 0.9–8.2. | |
| 21 | Pat Freiermuth PIT @ CLE · locked | PIT | @ CLE (Thu) | 2.8 | 7.7 | TE12 | +4.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 1.0–8.1. | |
| 22 | Colston Loveland CHI vs NYJ | CHI | vs NYJ | 2.8 | 5.7 | TE17 | +2.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 0.9–8.0. | |
| 23 | Noah Fant NO vs ATL · Questionable | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 2.7 | 0.0 | TE30 | -2.7 | Miss | Questionable (game-day report, seen 11:30 ET): P(active) 86% — median 2.7 if he plays. | |
| 24 | Michael Mayer LV vs KC | LV | vs KC | 2.6 | 8.2 | TE11 | +5.5 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 0.8–7.8. | |
| 25 | Greg Dulcich MIA @ MIN | MIA | @ MIN | 2.6 | 0.0 | TE31 | -2.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 0.9–7.4. | |
| 26 | Zach Ertz PHI vs LA | PHI | vs LA | 2.5 | 1.3 | TE24 | -1.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 0.9–7.3. | |
| 27 | Hunter Henry NE @ BUF | NE | @ BUF | 2.4 | 6.2 | TE15 | +3.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 0.8–7.7. | |
| 28 | T.J. Hockenson MIN vs MIA | MIN | vs MIA | 2.4 | 11.9 | TE4 | +9.5 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 0.8–7.6. | |
| 29 | Mark Andrews BAL vs TEN | BAL | vs TEN | 2.4 | 8.7 | TE9 | +6.3 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 0.8–7.0. | |
| 30 | Darnell Washington PIT @ CLE · locked | PIT | @ CLE (Thu) | 2.1 | 8.7 | TE10 | +6.6 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 0.7–6.2. | |
| 31 | Matthew Hibner BAL vs TEN | BAL | vs TEN | 2.0 | 3.4 | TE21 | +1.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 0.5–7.4. | |
| 32 | Terrance Ferguson LA @ PHI · Out | LA | @ PHI | 0.0 | 0.0 | TE32 | 0.0 | Hit | Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 1+ below
What the numbers say
3.9mean abs. error · Standard points, top 24
0.13rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
5 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
54%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 4
Engine byline · no human author
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 4 TE rankings
Who is the best tight end to start in Week 4 Standard?
George Kittle, our TE1 with a 7.6-point median; Brock Bowers is TE2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18
Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Accuracyscored after the week flips
Rankings versionv7 · Sun, Oct 4, 11:35 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-1135
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version