Jaxon Smith-Njigba is our WR1 for Week 4 in Standard, ahead of Chris Olave and Zay Flowers. The biggest riser since the last publish is Denzel Boston (WR19→WR17); the biggest faller is DeVonta Smith (WR14→WR47).
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Must start | ||||||||||
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs LAC | SEA | vs LAC | 13.3 | 7.6 | WR19 | -5.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 6.0–23.4. | |
| Tier 2 · Start | ||||||||||
| 2 | Chris Olave NO vs ATL | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 10.7 | 11.6 | WR9 | +0.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 4.9–19.4. | |
| Tier 3 · Start | ||||||||||
| 3 | Zay Flowers BAL vs TEN · Questionable | BAL | vs TEN | 9.4 | 17.8 | WR3 | +8.4 | Hit | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 9.4 if he plays. | |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ CAR | DET | @ CAR | 9.4 | 7.5 | WR21 | -1.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 3.7–17.0. | |
| 5 | Christian Watson GB @ TB | GB | @ TB | 9.0 | 4.7 | WR27 | -4.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 3.6–16.7. | |
| 6 | Davante Adams LA @ PHI | LA | @ PHI | 8.9 | 3.2 | WR33 | -5.7 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 3.9–16.6. | |
| 7 | Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs JAX | CIN | vs JAX | 8.6 | 2.7 | WR34 | -5.9 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 3.4–15.8. | |
| 8 | CeeDee Lamb DAL @ HOU | DAL | @ HOU | 8.3 | 24.3 | WR2 | +16.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 3.6–15.7. | |
| 9 | Parker Washington JAX @ CIN | JAX | @ CIN | 7.9 | 1.0 | WR40 | -6.9 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 3.4–14.8. | |
| 10 | Tee Higgins CIN vs JAX | CIN | vs JAX | 7.3 | 15.7 | WR6 | +8.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 3.2–13.7. | |
| 11 | Garrett Wilson NYJ @ CHI | NYJ | @ CHI | 7.0 | 2.7 | WR35 | -4.3 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 3.0–13.6. | |
| 12 | Drake London ATL @ NO | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 6.9 | 9.6 | WR13 | +2.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 3.4–13.5. | |
| 13 | Michael Wilson ARI @ NYG | ARI | @ NYG | 6.9 | 9.5 | WR14 | +2.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 2.9–13.3. | |
| 14 | Stefon Diggs WAS vs IND | WAS | vs IND | 6.0 | 3.5 | WR31 | -2.5 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 2.1–12.9. | |
| 15 | Rashee Rice KC @ LV | KC | @ LV | 5.7 | 0.0 | WR42 | -5.7 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 2.2–12.2. | |
| 16 | Luther Burden III CHI vs NYJ | CHI | vs NYJ | 5.5 | 7.4 | WR23 | +1.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 2.1–12.1. | |
| 17 | Denzel Boston CLE vs PIT · locked | CLE | vs PIT (Thu) | 5.4 | 8.9 | WR16 | +3.5 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 2.1–11.9. | |
| 18 | Jalen Coker CAR vs DET · Questionable | CAR | vs DET | 5.1 | 0.0 | WR43 | -5.1 | Miss | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 5.1 if he plays. | |
| 19 | Kalif Raymond CHI vs NYJ | CHI | vs NYJ | 5.0 | 0.6 | WR41 | -4.4 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 2.0–11.1. | |
| 20 | Terry McLaurin WAS vs IND · Questionable | WAS | vs IND | 4.8 | 0.0 | WR44 | -4.8 | Miss | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 4.8 if he plays. | |
| 21 | Josh Downs IND @ WAS | IND | @ WAS | 4.8 | 1.6 | WR38 | -3.2 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 2.1–10.4. | |
| 22 | George Pickens DAL @ HOU | DAL | @ HOU | 4.8 | 7.5 | WR22 | +2.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 2.0–10.6. | |
| 23 | Matthew Golden GB @ TB | GB | @ TB | 4.8 | 8.7 | WR17 | +3.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.0–10.7. | |
| 24 | Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs DEN | SF | vs DEN | 4.6 | 13.0 | WR7 | +8.4 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 1.8–10.5. | |
| 25 | Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs DET | CAR | vs DET | 4.6 | 31.2 | WR1 | +26.6 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 2.0–10.3. | |
| 26 | Devaughn Vele NO vs ATL | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 4.5 | 11.4 | WR11 | +6.9 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 1.8–10.4. | |
| 27 | Wan'Dale Robinson TEN @ BAL | TEN | @ BAL | 4.4 | 8.0 | WR18 | +3.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 1.7–10.1. | |
| 28 | Tre Tucker LV vs KC | LV | vs KC | 4.2 | 4.4 | WR29 | +0.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 1.7–9.8. | |
| 29 | Jakobi Meyers JAX @ CIN | JAX | @ CIN | 4.2 | 3.3 | WR32 | -0.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 1.6–10.0. | |
| 30 | Ladd McConkey LAC @ SEA · Questionable | LAC | @ SEA | 4.0 | 0.0 | WR45 | -4.0 | Miss | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 4.0 if he plays. | |
| 31 | DK Metcalf PIT @ CLE · locked | PIT | @ CLE (Thu) | 4.0 | 11.5 | WR10 | +7.5 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 1.5–9.9. | |
| 32 | DJ Moore BUF vs NE | BUF | vs NE | 4.0 | 1.7 | WR37 | -2.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 1.6–9.6. | |
| 33 | Jameson Williams DET @ CAR | DET | @ CAR | 3.9 | 10.2 | WR12 | +6.3 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 1.7–8.9. | |
| 34 | Jaylen Waddle DEN @ SF | DEN | @ SF | 3.9 | 9.5 | WR15 | +5.6 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 1.7–8.6. | |
| 35 | Romeo Doubs NE @ BUF | NE | @ BUF | 3.9 | 17.8 | WR4 | +13.9 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 1.7–9.1. | |
| 36 | Mack Hollins NE @ BUF | NE | @ BUF | 3.8 | 5.3 | WR25 | +1.5 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 1.7–8.6. | |
| 37 | Mike Evans SF vs DEN · Questionable | SF | vs DEN | 3.8 | 7.6 | WR20 | +3.8 | Hit | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 3.8 if he plays. | |
| 38 | Malik Nabers NYG vs ARI | NYG | vs ARI | 3.7 | 17.2 | WR5 | +13.5 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 1.5–9.2. | |
| 39 | Keenan Allen IND @ WAS · Questionable | IND | @ WAS | 3.5 | 0.0 | WR46 | -3.5 | Miss | Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 64% — median 3.5 if he plays. | |
| 40 | Carnell Tate TEN @ BAL | TEN | @ BAL | 3.4 | 12.5 | WR8 | +9.1 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 1.5–7.9. | |
| 41 | Jordan Addison MIN vs MIA | MIN | vs MIA | 3.4 | 5.1 | WR26 | +1.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 1.0–9.1. | |
| 42 | Xavier Hutchinson HOU vs DAL | HOU | vs DAL | 3.3 | 4.6 | WR28 | +1.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 1.5–7.5. | |
| 43 | Malik Washington MIA @ MIN | MIA | @ MIN | 3.2 | 7.0 | WR24 | +3.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 1.0–8.4. | |
| 44 | Emeka Egbuka TB vs GB | TB | vs GB | 3.2 | 1.3 | WR39 | -1.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 1.0–8.8. | |
| 45 | Dontayvion Wicks PHI vs LA | PHI | vs LA | 3.1 | 1.8 | WR36 | -1.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 0.9–8.7. | |
| 46 | Quentin Johnston LAC @ SEA | LAC | @ SEA | 3.1 | 4.0 | WR30 | +0.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 1.0–8.4. | |
| 47 | DeVonta Smith PHI vs LA · Out | PHI | vs LA | 0.0 | 0.0 | WR47 | 0.0 | Hit | Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start | |
| 48 | Justin Jefferson MIN vs MIA · Out | MIN | vs MIA | 0.0 | 0.0 | WR48 | 0.0 | Hit | Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start | |
Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 3+ below
What the numbers say
5.5mean abs. error · Standard points, top 36
-0.01rank correlation · Spearman, top 36
4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
44%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 4
Engine byline · no human author
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 4 WR rankings
Who is the best wide receiver to start in Week 4 Standard?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, our WR1 with a 13.2-point median; Chris Olave is WR2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18
Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Accuracyscored after the week flips
Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version