Week 4 Wide Receiver Rankings & Results — Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET (v6) · results scored Tue, Oct 6, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is our WR1 for Week 4 in Half-PPR, ahead of Chris Olave and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The biggest riser since the last publish is Jalen Coker (WR19→WR17); the biggest faller is DeVonta Smith (WR14→WR47).

Week 4 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Wide Receiver 2026 draft WR

Results table

Week 4 WR · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs LAC	SEA	vs LAC	17.0	10.1	WR19	-6.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 8.7–28.5.
Tier 2 · Start
2	Chris Olave NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	14.2	15.6	WR8	+1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 7.3–24.2.
Tier 3 · Start
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	12.4	11.5	WR16	-0.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 5.9–21.1.
4	Zay Flowers BAL vs TEN · Questionable	BAL	vs TEN	11.6	21.8	WR3	+10.2	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 11.6 if he plays.
5	Ja'Marr Chase CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	11.5	4.2	WR34	-7.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 5.5–19.7.
6	Davante Adams LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	11.3	5.2	WR31	-6.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 5.4–19.7.
7	Christian Watson GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	11.1	6.2	WR28	-4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 5.1–19.7.
8	CeeDee Lamb DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	10.8	32.8	WR2	+22.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 5.2–19.1.
9	Parker Washington JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	10.1	1.5	WR41	-8.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 4.8–17.9.
10	Garrett Wilson NYJ @ CHI	NYJ	@ CHI	9.7	4.2	WR35	-5.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 4.6–17.0.
11	Michael Wilson ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	9.4	13.0	WR13	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 4.5–16.7.
12	Tee Higgins CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	9.4	21.2	WR4	+11.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 4.5–16.7.
13	Drake London ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	9.2	12.1	WR14	+2.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 4.7–16.6.
14	Stefon Diggs WAS vs IND	WAS	vs IND	8.4	6.0	WR30	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.4–15.9.
15	Rashee Rice KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	8.2	0.0	WR42	-8.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 3.6–15.4.
16	Luther Burden III CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	7.9	9.4	WR23	+1.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.5–15.1.
17	Jalen Coker CAR vs DET · Questionable	CAR	vs DET	7.5	0.0	WR43	-7.5	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 7.5 if he plays.
18	Kalif Raymond CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	7.4	1.6	WR40	-5.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.2–14.1.
19	George Pickens DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	7.2	8.5	WR24	+1.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 3.3–13.7.
20	Wan'Dale Robinson TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	7.0	9.5	WR21	+2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 3.1–13.3.
21	Josh Downs IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	7.0	3.1	WR37	-3.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 3.2–13.4.
22	Denzel Boston CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	6.9	10.9	WR17	+4.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 2.8–13.9.
23	Terry McLaurin WAS vs IND · Questionable	WAS	vs IND	6.8	0.0	WR44	-6.8	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 6.8 if he plays.
24	Devaughn Vele NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	6.7	14.4	WR10	+7.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 3.0–13.1.
25	Matthew Golden GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	6.6	10.2	WR18	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.9–13.1.
26	Tetairoa McMillan CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	6.5	38.2	WR1	+31.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 2.9–12.8.
27	Jakobi Meyers JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	6.2	4.8	WR32	-1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 2.7–12.5.
28	DK Metcalf PIT @ CLE · locked	PIT	@ CLE (Thu)	6.1	14.0	WR11	+7.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 2.5–12.3.
29	Deebo Samuel Sr. SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	6.0	15.5	WR9	+9.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 2.5–12.3.
30	Keenan Allen IND @ WAS · Questionable	IND	@ WAS	5.9	0.0	WR45	-5.9	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 64% — median 5.9 if he plays.
31	Tre Tucker LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	5.9	6.4	WR27	+0.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 2.6–12.1.
32	Mack Hollins NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	5.9	6.8	WR26	+0.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 2.7–11.4.
33	Ladd McConkey LAC @ SEA · Questionable	LAC	@ SEA	5.8	0.0	WR46	-5.8	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 5.8 if he plays.
34	Mike Evans SF vs DEN · Questionable	SF	vs DEN	5.8	10.1	WR20	+4.3	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 5.8 if he plays.
35	Malik Nabers NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	5.7	20.2	WR6	+14.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 2.6–11.7.
36	DJ Moore BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	5.7	2.2	WR39	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.4–11.6.
37	Jameson Williams DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	5.6	13.2	WR12	+7.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 2.5–11.1.
38	Jaylen Waddle DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	5.5	12.0	WR15	+6.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 2.5–10.8.
39	Carnell Tate TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	5.4	17.0	WR7	+11.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 2.5–10.7.
40	Romeo Doubs NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	5.2	20.8	WR5	+15.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 2.3–10.8.
41	Malik Washington MIA @ MIN	MIA	@ MIN	5.0	9.5	WR22	+4.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 2.0–10.6.
42	Emeka Egbuka TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	4.9	2.3	WR38	-2.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 1.8–11.0.
43	Xavier Hutchinson HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	4.8	6.1	WR29	+1.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.2–9.5.
44	Jordan Addison MIN vs MIA	MIN	vs MIA	4.7	7.1	WR25	+2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 1.6–10.8.
45	Quentin Johnston LAC @ SEA	LAC	@ SEA	4.6	4.5	WR33	-0.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 1.6–10.3.
46	Dontayvion Wicks PHI vs LA	PHI	vs LA	4.4	3.3	WR36	-1.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 1.5–10.4.
47	DeVonta Smith PHI vs LA · Out	PHI	vs LA	0.0	0.0	WR47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Justin Jefferson MIN vs MIA · Out	MIN	vs MIA	0.0	0.0	WR48	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 3+ below

What the numbers say

6.5mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 36

0.14rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

44%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 4

Engine byline · no human author

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 4 WR rankings

Who is the best wide receiver to start in Week 4 Half-PPR?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, our WR1 with a 17.0-point median; Chris Olave is WR2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18

Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Accuracyscored after the week flips

Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 4 · other positionsQuarterback Running Back Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

WR · other formatsWeek 4 WR — PPR Week 4 WR — Standard

WR · other weeksWeek 5 WR Week 6 WR Rest-of-season Wide Receiver 2026 draft WR

This weekWeek 4 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version