Week 4 Flex Rankings & Results — Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET (v6) · results scored Tue, Oct 6, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jahmyr Gibbs is our Flex #1 for Week 4 in Half-PPR, ahead of Bijan Robinson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The biggest riser since the last publish is Keenan Allen (#81→#77); the biggest faller is Breece Hall (#28→#93).

Week 4 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Flex 2026 draft Flex

Results table

Week 4 FLEX · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	19.5	15.7	FLEX18	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 11.7–29.4.
Tier 2 · Start
2	Bijan Robinson RB2 ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	17.7	27.2	FLEX7	+9.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 10.7–26.8.
3	Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1 SEA vs LAC	SEA	vs LAC	17.0	10.1	FLEX43	-6.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 8.7–28.5.
4	Derrick Henry RB3 BAL vs TEN	BAL	vs TEN	16.9	14.9	FLEX24	-2.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 9.4–26.1.
Tier 3
5	Kenneth Walker III RB4 KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	15.2	30.4	FLEX4	+15.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 8.8–23.5.
6	Jonathan Taylor RB5 IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	14.7	22.2	FLEX9	+7.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 8.0–23.0.
7	Chris Olave WR2 NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	14.2	15.6	FLEX19	+1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 7.3–24.2.
8	Christian McCaffrey RB6 SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	13.7	14.5	FLEX26	+0.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 7.5–22.2.
9	James Cook RB7 BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	12.8	15.3	FLEX22	+2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 6.9–20.6.
10	Kyren Williams RB8 LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	12.5	31.7	FLEX3	+19.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 7.0–19.8.
11	Jaylen Warren RB9 PIT @ CLE · locked	PIT	@ CLE (Thu)	12.4	14.1	FLEX29	+1.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 7.3–19.7.
12	Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	12.4	11.5	FLEX39	-0.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 5.9–21.1.
13	D'Andre Swift RB10 CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	12.1	6.4	FLEX59	-5.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 6.4–19.7.
14	Chase Brown RB11 CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	11.9	13.6	FLEX31	+1.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 6.6–19.0.
15	Ashton Jeanty RB12 LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	11.7	15.6	FLEX20	+3.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 6.8–18.3.
16	Zay Flowers WR4 BAL vs TEN · Questionable	BAL	vs TEN	11.6	21.8	FLEX10	+10.2	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 11.6 if he plays.
17	Ja'Marr Chase WR5 CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	11.5	4.2	FLEX72	-7.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 5.5–19.7.
18	Davante Adams WR6 LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	11.3	5.2	FLEX68	-6.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 5.4–19.7.
19	Christian Watson WR7 GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	11.1	6.2	FLEX61	-4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 5.1–19.7.
20	Javonte Williams RB13 DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	11.0	28.8	FLEX5	+17.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 5.8–17.8.
21	Cam Skattebo RB14 NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	10.9	7.1	FLEX55	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 5.4–18.6.
22	CeeDee Lamb WR8 DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	10.8	32.8	FLEX2	+22.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 5.2–19.1.
23	Aaron Jones RB15 MIN vs MIA	MIN	vs MIA	10.5	14.8	FLEX25	+4.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 5.8–17.0.
24	Trey McBride TE1 ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	10.3	6.6	FLEX57	-3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 5.0–17.9.
25	Jeremiyah Love RB16 ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	10.2	6.0	FLEX64	-4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 5.2–17.1.
26	Parker Washington WR9 JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	10.1	1.5	FLEX82	-8.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 4.8–17.9.
27	Brock Bowers TE2 LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	9.9	17.6	FLEX15	+7.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 4.6–17.4.
28	George Kittle TE3 SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	9.8	15.0	FLEX23	+5.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 4.2–17.2.
29	Garrett Wilson WR10 NYJ @ CHI	NYJ	@ CHI	9.7	4.2	FLEX73	-5.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 4.6–17.0.
30	Chuba Hubbard RB17 CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	9.6	25.4	FLEX8	+15.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 4.8–16.2.
31	Bucky Irving RB18 TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	9.6	6.1	FLEX63	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 5.1–16.3.
32	Michael Wilson WR11 ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	9.4	13.0	FLEX34	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 4.5–16.7.
33	Omarion Hampton RB19 LAC @ SEA	LAC	@ SEA	9.4	12.3	FLEX35	+2.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 4.3–16.6.
34	Tee Higgins WR12 CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	9.4	21.2	FLEX11	+11.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 4.5–16.7.
35	Drake London WR13 ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	9.2	12.1	FLEX36	+2.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 4.7–16.6.
36	Rhamondre Stevenson RB20 NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	9.2	16.9	FLEX17	+7.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 4.4–15.9.
37	Juwan Johnson TE4 NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	8.7	8.9	FLEX52	+0.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 3.7–15.6.
38	De'Von Achane RB21 MIA @ MIN	MIA	@ MIN	8.5	0.0	FLEX85	-8.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 4.5–14.6.
39	TreVeyon Henderson RB22 NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	8.4	4.2	FLEX74	-4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 3.6–15.2.
40	Stefon Diggs WR14 WAS vs IND	WAS	vs IND	8.4	6.0	FLEX65	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.4–15.9.
41	Tony Pollard RB23 TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	8.3	12.0	FLEX37	+3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 4.8–13.7.
42	Bhayshul Tuten RB24 JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	8.3	10.1	FLEX44	+1.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 3.5–14.7.
43	Rashee Rice WR15 KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	8.2	0.0	FLEX86	-8.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 3.6–15.4.
44	David Montgomery RB25 HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	8.1	4.3	FLEX71	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 3.5–14.3.
45	Saquon Barkley RB26 PHI vs LA	PHI	vs LA	8.1	1.5	FLEX83	-6.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 4.5–13.8.
46	Harold Fannin Jr. TE5 CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	8.1	10.2	FLEX41	+2.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 3.3–14.6.
47	RJ Harvey RB27 DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	8.0	14.3	FLEX28	+6.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 3.6–14.4.
48	Luther Burden III WR16 CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	7.9	9.4	FLEX50	+1.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.5–15.1.
49	Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB28 WAS vs IND	WAS	vs IND	7.8	6.0	FLEX66	-1.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.3–14.2.
50	Travis Etienne RB29 NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	7.6	0.0	FLEX87	-7.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 3.9–13.3.
51	Travis Kelce TE6 KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	7.5	2.5	FLEX77	-5.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 3.2–14.1.
52	Jalen Coker WR17 CAR vs DET · Questionable	CAR	vs DET	7.5	0.0	FLEX88	-7.5	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 7.5 if he plays.
53	Kalif Raymond WR18 CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	7.4	1.6	FLEX81	-5.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.2–14.1.
54	Quinshon Judkins RB30 CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	7.3	18.6	FLEX13	+11.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 3.7–12.8.
55	George Pickens WR19 DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	7.2	8.5	FLEX53	+1.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 3.3–13.7.
56	Dalton Schultz TE7 HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	7.2	1.9	FLEX80	-5.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 3.5–13.3.
57	Wan'Dale Robinson WR20 TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	7.0	9.5	FLEX48	+2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 3.1–13.3.
58	Josh Downs WR21 IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	7.0	3.1	FLEX75	-3.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 3.2–13.4.
59	Kyle Monangai RB31 CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	6.9	27.5	FLEX6	+20.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.4–12.7.
60	Denzel Boston WR22 CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	6.9	10.9	FLEX40	+4.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 2.8–13.9.
61	Tyler Warren TE8 IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	6.9	6.6	FLEX58	-0.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 2.8–13.3.
62	Dalton Kincaid TE9 BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	6.9	1.2	FLEX84	-5.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 3.0–13.2.
63	Terry McLaurin WR23 WAS vs IND · Questionable	WAS	vs IND	6.8	0.0	FLEX89	-6.8	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 6.8 if he plays.
64	Kenyon Sadiq TE10 NYJ @ CHI · Questionable	NYJ	@ CHI	6.7	0.0	FLEX90	-6.7	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 86% — median 6.7 if he plays.
65	Devaughn Vele WR24 NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	6.7	14.4	FLEX27	+7.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 3.0–13.1.
66	Sam LaPorta TE11 DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	6.6	18.4	FLEX14	+11.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 3.0–12.6.
67	Matthew Golden WR25 GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	6.6	10.2	FLEX42	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.9–13.1.
68	J.K. Dobbins RB32 DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	6.6	6.2	FLEX62	-0.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 3.3–12.0.
69	Darren Waller TE12 CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	6.5	5.1	FLEX69	-1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 2.2–12.6.
70	Tucker Kraft TE13 GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	6.5	13.5	FLEX32	+7.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.7–12.3.
71	Tetairoa McMillan WR26 CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	6.5	38.2	FLEX1	+31.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 2.9–12.8.
72	Jakobi Meyers WR27 JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	6.2	4.8	FLEX70	-1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 2.7–12.5.
73	DK Metcalf WR28 PIT @ CLE · locked	PIT	@ CLE (Thu)	6.1	14.0	FLEX30	+7.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 2.5–12.3.
74	Deebo Samuel Sr. WR29 SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	6.0	15.5	FLEX21	+9.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 2.5–12.3.
75	Ty Johnson RB33 BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	6.0	2.2	FLEX78	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.0–11.9.
76	Woody Marks RB34 HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	6.0	8.2	FLEX54	+2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.3–11.9.
77	Keenan Allen WR30 IND @ WAS · Questionable	IND	@ WAS	5.9	0.0	FLEX91	-5.9	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 64% — median 5.9 if he plays.
78	Tre Tucker WR31 LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	5.9	6.4	FLEX60	+0.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 2.6–12.1.
79	Blake Corum RB35 LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	5.9	2.6	FLEX76	-3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.8–11.6.
80	Mack Hollins WR32 NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	5.9	6.8	FLEX56	+0.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 2.7–11.4.
81	Ladd McConkey WR33 LAC @ SEA · Questionable	LAC	@ SEA	5.8	0.0	FLEX92	-5.8	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 5.8 if he plays.
82	Mike Evans WR34 SF vs DEN · Questionable	SF	vs DEN	5.8	10.1	FLEX45	+4.3	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 70% — median 5.8 if he plays.
83	Malik Nabers WR35 NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	5.7	20.2	FLEX12	+14.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 2.6–11.7.
84	DJ Moore WR36 BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	5.7	2.2	FLEX79	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.4–11.6.
85	Jameson Williams WR37 DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	5.6	13.2	FLEX33	+7.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 2.5–11.1.
86	Isaiah Likely TE14 NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	5.6	10.1	FLEX46	+4.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 2.1–11.5.
87	Tyler Higbee TE15 LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	5.6	9.2	FLEX51	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.0–11.7.
88	Jaylen Waddle WR38 DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	5.5	12.0	FLEX38	+6.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 2.5–10.8.
89	Carnell Tate WR39 TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	5.4	17.0	FLEX16	+11.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 2.5–10.7.
90	Kenny Gainwell RB36 TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	5.3	9.7	FLEX47	+4.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 2.0–10.7.
91	Cade Otton TE16 TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	5.2	5.7	FLEX67	+0.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 2.4–10.2.
92	Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB37 JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	5.2	9.5	FLEX49	+4.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 1.7–11.3.
93	Breece Hall RB38 NYJ @ CHI · Out	NYJ	@ CHI	0.0	0.0	FLEX93	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
94	DeVonta Smith WR40 PHI vs LA · Out	PHI	vs LA	0.0	0.0	FLEX94	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
95	Justin Jefferson WR41 MIN vs MIA · Out	MIN	vs MIA	0.0	0.0	FLEX95	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
96	Rachaad White RB39 WAS vs IND · Out	WAS	vs IND	0.0	0.0	FLEX96	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 96 · tiers 3+ below

What the numbers say

6.7mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 36

0.24rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

61%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 4

Engine byline · no human author

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 4 FLEX rankings

Who is the best flex to start in Week 4 Half-PPR?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our FLEX1 with a 19.5-point median; Bijan Robinson is FLEX2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18

Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Accuracyscored after the week flips

Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 4 · other positionsQuarterback Running Back Wide Receiver Tight End Kicker Defense Overall

FLEX · other formatsWeek 4 FLEX — PPR Week 4 FLEX — Standard

FLEX · other weeksWeek 5 FLEX Week 6 FLEX Rest-of-season Flex 2026 draft Flex

This weekWeek 4 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version