Josh Allen is our QB1 for Week 4 in Half-PPR, ahead of Brock Purdy and Tyler Shough. The biggest riser since the last publish is Justin Herbert (QB23→QB22); the biggest faller is Baker Mayfield (QB22→QB32).
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Must start | ||||||||||
| 1 | Josh Allen BUF vs NE | BUF | vs NE | 21.8 | 18.5 | QB10 | -3.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 13.4–30.6. | |
| 2 | Brock Purdy SF vs DEN | SF | vs DEN | 20.3 | 19.6 | QB8 | -0.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 12.5–28.4. | |
| 3 | Tyler Shough NO vs ATL | NO | vs ATL (Mon) | 19.4 | 15.9 | QB14 | -3.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 11.5–27.5. | |
| Tier 2 | ||||||||||
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes KC @ LV | KC | @ LV | 17.7 | 17.0 | QB13 | -0.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 10.6–25.4. | |
| 5 | Bryce Young CAR vs DET | CAR | vs DET | 17.6 | 21.5 | QB6 | +3.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 10.5–25.0. | |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence JAX @ CIN | JAX | @ CIN | 17.5 | 13.1 | QB19 | -4.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 10.3–25.0. | |
| 7 | Case Keenum CHI vs NYJ | CHI | vs NYJ | 17.4 | 0.0 | QB31 | -17.4 | Miss | P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 17.4 if he plays. | |
| 8 | Jared Goff DET @ CAR | DET | @ CAR | 17.2 | 20.5 | QB7 | +3.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 10.3–24.4. | |
| 9 | Matthew Stafford LA @ PHI | LA | @ PHI | 17.1 | 9.7 | QB25 | -7.4 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 10.0–24.6. | |
| 10 | Joe Burrow CIN vs JAX | CIN | vs JAX | 17.0 | 23.7 | QB2 | +6.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 10.1–24.0. | |
| 11 | Lamar Jackson BAL vs TEN | BAL | vs TEN | 16.6 | 18.9 | QB9 | +2.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 10.2–23.4. | |
| 12 | Dak Prescott DAL @ HOU | DAL | @ HOU | 16.6 | 18.1 | QB11 | +1.5 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 9.9–23.4. | |
| 13 | Jacoby Brissett ARI @ NYG | ARI | @ NYG | 15.6 | 10.4 | QB24 | -5.1 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 8.7–22.7. | |
| 14 | Bo Nix DEN @ SF | DEN | @ SF | 15.4 | 13.6 | QB16 | -1.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 8.8–22.5. | |
| 15 | Deshaun Watson CLE vs PIT · locked | CLE | vs PIT (Thu) | 15.2 | 12.9 | QB21 | -2.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 8.9–21.7. | |
| 16 | C.J. Stroud HOU vs DAL | HOU | vs DAL | 14.9 | 23.1 | QB3 | +8.2 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 8.8–21.3. | |
| 17 | Jordan Love GB @ TB | GB | @ TB | 14.8 | 13.1 | QB20 | -1.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 8.6–21.5. | |
| 18 | Kirk Cousins LV vs KC | LV | vs KC | 14.4 | 22.6 | QB4 | +8.2 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 7.9–21.1. | |
| 19 | Geno Smith NYJ @ CHI | NYJ | @ CHI | 14.0 | 8.8 | QB27 | -5.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CHI · 20–80 range 7.9–20.3. | |
| 20 | Jalen Hurts PHI vs LA | PHI | vs LA | 13.9 | 13.5 | QB17 | -0.3 | Hit | P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 13.9 if he plays. | |
| 21 | Sam Darnold SEA vs LAC | SEA | vs LAC | 13.7 | 13.3 | QB18 | -0.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 7.5–20.0. | |
| 22 | Justin Herbert LAC @ SEA | LAC | @ SEA | 13.3 | 9.6 | QB26 | -3.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 7.4–19.7. | |
| 23 | Aaron Rodgers PIT @ CLE · locked | PIT | @ CLE (Thu) | 13.3 | 22.0 | QB5 | +8.7 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 7.5–19.4. | |
| 24 | Malik Willis MIA @ MIN | MIA | @ MIN | 13.2 | 2.5 | QB30 | -10.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 7.3–19.7. | |
| 25 | Drake Maye NE @ BUF | NE | @ BUF | 13.1 | 26.2 | QB1 | +13.1 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 7.2–19.4. | |
| 26 | Marcus Mariota WAS vs IND | WAS | vs IND | 13.1 | 5.3 | QB29 | -7.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 7.0–19.7. | |
| 27 | Daniel Jones IND @ WAS | IND | @ WAS | 13.0 | 7.9 | QB28 | -5.1 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 7.2–19.4. | |
| 28 | Michael Penix Jr. ATL @ NO | ATL | @ NO (Mon) | 12.9 | 12.7 | QB22 | -0.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 7.4–18.9. | |
| 29 | Cam Ward TEN @ BAL | TEN | @ BAL | 12.8 | 15.6 | QB15 | +2.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 6.7–19.8. | |
| 30 | Kyler Murray MIN vs MIA | MIN | vs MIA | 12.8 | 11.5 | QB23 | -1.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 6.7–19.2. | |
| Tier 3 · Sit | ||||||||||
| 31 | Jameis Winston NYG vs ARI | NYG | vs ARI | 10.2 | 18.0 | QB12 | +7.8 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 5.4–15.6. | |
| 32 | Baker Mayfield TB vs GB · Out | TB | vs GB | 0.0 | 0.0 | QB32 | 0.0 | Hit | Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 2+ below
What the numbers say
4.6mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 24
0.24rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
7 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
75%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 4
Engine byline · no human author
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 4 QB rankings
Who is the best quarterback to start in Week 4 Half-PPR?
Josh Allen, our QB1 with a 21.8-point median; Brock Purdy is QB2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18
Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Accuracyscored after the week flips
Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version