Josh Allen is our QB1 for Week 5 in Half-PPR, ahead of Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow. The biggest riser since the last publish is Kirk Cousins (QB15→QB14); the biggest faller is Lamar Jackson (QB14→QB32).
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Must start | ||||||||||
| 1 | Josh Allen BUF @ LA | BUF | @ LA (Mon) | 20.5 | 30.5 | QB2 | +10.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 12.3–29.0. | |
| Tier 2 | ||||||||||
| 2 | Brock Purdy SF @ SEA | SF | @ SEA | 18.7 | 16.2 | QB14 | -2.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 11.3–26.8. | |
| 3 | Joe Burrow CIN @ MIA | CIN | @ MIA | 18.4 | 24.6 | QB8 | +6.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 11.1–25.8. | |
| 4 | Jared Goff DET @ ARI | DET | @ ARI | 18.1 | 28.9 | QB3 | +10.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 11.3–25.3. | |
| 5 | Dak Prescott DAL vs TB · locked | DAL | vs TB (Thu) | 17.4 | 12.6 | QB19 | -4.7 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 10.8–24.4. | |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford LA vs BUF | LA | vs BUF (Mon) | 16.8 | 27.3 | QB4 | +10.5 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 10.0–23.9. | |
| 7 | Jacoby Brissett ARI vs DET | ARI | vs DET | 15.9 | 24.8 | QB7 | +8.9 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 9.0–23.0. | |
| 8 | Trevor Lawrence JAX vs PHI | JAX | vs PHI | 15.8 | 21.7 | QB10 | +6.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 8.9–22.7. | |
| 9 | Deshaun Watson CLE @ NYJ | CLE | @ NYJ | 15.6 | 12.2 | QB20 | -3.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 9.2–22.4. | |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud HOU @ TEN | HOU | @ TEN | 15.6 | 20.9 | QB11 | +5.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 9.4–22.4. | |
| 11 | Tyler Shough NO vs MIN | NO | vs MIN | 15.6 | -0.2 | QB32 | -15.7 | Miss | P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 15.6 if he plays. | |
| 12 | Drake Maye NE vs LV | NE | vs LV | 15.3 | 39.5 | QB1 | +24.1 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 8.8–22.2. | |
| 13 | Bo Nix DEN @ LAC | DEN | @ LAC | 15.2 | 7.9 | QB25 | -7.3 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 8.6–22.2. | |
| 14 | Kirk Cousins LV @ NE | LV | @ NE | 15.0 | 13.7 | QB17 | -1.3 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 8.5–22.1. | |
| 15 | Aaron Rodgers PIT vs IND | PIT | vs IND | 14.9 | 22.0 | QB9 | +7.1 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 8.5–21.6. | |
| 16 | Jalen Hurts PHI @ JAX | PHI | @ JAX | 14.4 | 13.0 | QB18 | -1.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 7.8–21.5. | |
| 17 | Jordan Love GB vs CHI | GB | vs CHI | 13.9 | 25.3 | QB6 | +11.4 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 7.7–20.2. | |
| 18 | Justin Herbert LAC vs DEN | LAC | vs DEN | 13.4 | 10.2 | QB22 | -3.2 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 7.4–20.0. | |
| 19 | Geno Smith NYJ vs CLE | NYJ | vs CLE | 13.4 | 10.0 | QB23 | -3.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 7.6–19.5. | |
| 20 | Sam Darnold SEA vs SF | SEA | vs SF | 13.3 | 8.3 | QB24 | -5.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 7.3–19.8. | |
| 21 | Cam Ward TEN vs HOU | TEN | vs HOU | 13.0 | 5.0 | QB26 | -8.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 7.0–19.8. | |
| 22 | Malik Willis MIA vs CIN | MIA | vs CIN | 12.5 | 18.9 | QB12 | +6.4 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 6.9–18.4. | |
| 23 | Kyler Murray MIN @ NO | MIN | @ NO | 12.2 | 18.3 | QB13 | +6.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 6.7–18.2. | |
| 24 | Daniel Jones IND @ PIT | IND | @ PIT | 11.8 | 11.1 | QB21 | -0.8 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 6.0–18.2. | |
| 25 | Jameis Winston NYG @ WAS | NYG | @ WAS | 11.4 | 25.7 | QB5 | +14.3 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 5.6–17.4. | |
| 26 | Athan Kaliakmanis WAS vs NYG | WAS | vs NYG | 11.4 | 0.0 | QB28 | -11.4 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 5.8–17.5. | |
| 27 | Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs BAL | ATL | vs BAL | 11.2 | 14.4 | QB15 | +3.2 | Hit | P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 11.2 if he plays. | |
| Tier 3 · Sit | ||||||||||
| 28 | Jalon Daniels TB @ DAL · locked | TB | @ DAL (Thu) | 9.3 | 13.9 | QB16 | +4.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 2.7–17.7. | |
| Tier 4 · Sit | ||||||||||
| 29 | Tyson Bagent CHI @ GB | CHI | @ GB | 6.8 | 1.2 | QB27 | -5.6 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 4.0–10.7. | |
| Tier 5 · Start if active | ||||||||||
| 30 | Trey Lance LAC vs DEN · Doubtful | LAC | vs DEN | 2.8 | 0.0 | QB29 | -2.8 | Hit | Doubtful (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 0% — median 2.8 if he plays. | |
| Tier 6 · Start if active | ||||||||||
| 31 | Joe Flacco CIN @ MIA | CIN | @ MIA | 0.0 | 0.0 | QB30 | 0.0 | Hit | P(active) 27% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
| 32 | Lamar Jackson BAL @ ATL · Out | BAL | @ ATL | 0.0 | 0.0 | QB31 | 0.0 | Hit | Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 2+ below
What the numbers say
7.1mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 24 · Week 4: 4.6
0.49rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
8 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
50%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 5
Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 QB accuracy: MAE 4.6, top-12 hit 7/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 5 QB rankings
Who is the best quarterback to start in Week 5 Half-PPR?
Josh Allen, our QB1 with a 20.5-point median; Brock Purdy is QB2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09
Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 4 QB accuracyMAE 4.6 · top-12 hit 7/12
Rankings versionv2 · Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-0803
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version