Week 5 Wide Receiver Rankings & Results — Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET (v2) · results scored Tue, Oct 13, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

CeeDee Lamb is our WR1 for Week 5 in Half-PPR, ahead of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. The biggest riser since the last publish is Kalif Raymond (WR36→WR34); the biggest faller is Stefon Diggs (WR17→WR47).

Week 5 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Wide Receiver 2026 draft WR

Results table

Week 5 WR · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range · bye-week teams (CAR, KC) excluded
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	CeeDee Lamb DAL vs TB · locked	DAL	vs TB (Thu)	14.6	1.9	WR39	-12.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 7.5–24.4.
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs SF	SEA	vs SF	14.5	20.3	WR7	+5.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 7.1–24.6.
3	Puka Nacua LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	13.4	29.2	WR2	+15.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 7.1–22.8.
4	Chris Olave NO vs MIN	NO	vs MIN	13.0	6.6	WR26	-6.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 6.8–22.4.
5	Zay Flowers BAL @ ATL · Questionable	BAL	@ ATL	12.7	10.6	WR16	-2.1	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 12.7 if he plays.
6	Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	12.1	9.9	WR17	-2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 5.8–20.7.
7	Nico Collins HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	11.6	8.1	WR23	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 5.4–20.2.
8	Tee Higgins CIN @ MIA · Questionable	CIN	@ MIA	11.1	3.2	WR36	-7.9	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 97% — median 11.1 if he plays.
9	Michael Wilson ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	10.5	5.3	WR30	-5.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 5.3–18.3.
10	Davante Adams LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	9.9	19.6	WR9	+9.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 4.7–18.0.
11	Drake London ATL vs BAL	ATL	vs BAL	9.8	15.3	WR13	+5.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 5.0–17.5.
12	Christian Watson GB vs CHI	GB	vs CHI	9.6	29.3	WR1	+19.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 4.4–17.3.
13	Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ MIA · Questionable	CIN	@ MIA	8.8	16.7	WR12	+7.9	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 79% — median 8.8 if he plays.
14	Carnell Tate TEN vs HOU · Questionable	TEN	vs HOU	8.4	1.1	WR42	-7.3	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 8.4 if he plays.
15	Garrett Wilson NYJ vs CLE	NYJ	vs CLE	8.3	19.9	WR8	+11.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 3.6–15.8.
16	Luther Burden III CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	7.8	6.9	WR25	-0.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 3.5–14.9.
17	Parker Washington JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	7.3	27.4	WR3	+20.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 3.1–14.3.
18	DK Metcalf PIT vs IND	PIT	vs IND	7.2	3.8	WR33	-3.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.1–13.9.
19	Denzel Boston CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	7.2	12.1	WR15	+4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 3.0–14.6.
20	Romeo Doubs NE vs LV	NE	vs LV	7.1	2.1	WR38	-5.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 2.8–14.3.
21	Malik Nabers NYG @ WAS	NYG	@ WAS	6.9	23.6	WR4	+16.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 3.0–13.5.
22	Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ SEA	SF	@ SEA	6.8	1.5	WR41	-5.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 2.8–13.4.
23	Devaughn Vele NO vs MIN	NO	vs MIN	6.8	4.6	WR32	-2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 3.0–13.5.
24	Matthew Golden GB vs CHI	GB	vs CHI	6.7	17.3	WR11	+10.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 2.8–13.3.
25	Malik Washington MIA vs CIN	MIA	vs CIN	6.7	9.1	WR19	+2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 3.1–13.0.
26	Jaylen Waddle DEN @ LAC	DEN	@ LAC	6.5	3.8	WR34	-2.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 2.8–12.8.
27	Mike Evans SF @ SEA	SF	@ SEA	6.4	22.8	WR6	+16.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 2.7–12.9.
28	George Pickens DAL vs TB · locked	DAL	vs TB (Thu)	6.4	23.5	WR5	+17.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 2.9–12.6.
29	Jameson Williams DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	6.4	17.7	WR10	+11.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 3.0–12.5.
30	Wan'Dale Robinson TEN vs HOU	TEN	vs HOU	6.3	8.3	WR22	+2.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 2.3–13.0.
31	Keon Coleman BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	6.1	7.2	WR24	+1.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 2.6–12.4.
32	Rome Odunze CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	5.9	3.5	WR35	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 2.6–11.9.
33	Jakobi Meyers JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	5.8	4.7	WR31	-1.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 2.5–11.5.
34	Kalif Raymond CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	5.8	1.9	WR40	-3.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 2.5–11.7.
35	Josh Downs IND @ PIT	IND	@ PIT	5.7	6.2	WR27	+0.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 2.7–11.5.
36	Tre Tucker LV @ NE	LV	@ NE	5.7	5.5	WR28	-0.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 2.6–11.5.
37	Jordan Addison MIN @ NO · Questionable	MIN	@ NO	5.7	0.0	WR44	-5.7	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 5.7 if he plays.
38	Roman Wilson PIT vs IND	PIT	vs IND	5.6	0.0	WR45	-5.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 2.2–11.8.
39	Khalil Shakir BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	5.3	9.5	WR18	+4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 2.4–10.5.
40	Tre Harris LAC vs DEN	LAC	vs DEN	5.0	2.6	WR37	-2.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 2.3–10.1.
41	Dontayvion Wicks PHI @ JAX	PHI	@ JAX	5.0	8.8	WR20	+3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 2.1–10.3.
42	Chris Godwin Jr. TB @ DAL · locked	TB	@ DAL (Thu)	4.9	5.5	WR29	+0.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 1.9–10.5.
43	Isaac TeSlaa DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	4.8	0.0	WR46	-4.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 2.0–10.3.
44	Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	4.8	8.5	WR21	+3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 2.1–9.9.
45	KC Concepcion CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	4.8	1.0	WR43	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 1.9–10.1.
46	Emeka Egbuka TB @ DAL · locked	TB	@ DAL (Thu)	4.7	14.2	WR14	+9.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 1.7–10.5.
47	Stefon Diggs WAS vs NYG · Out	WAS	vs NYG	0.0	0.0	WR47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Mack Hollins NE vs LV · Out	NE	vs LV	0.0	0.0	WR48	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 1+ below

What the numbers say

7.0mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 36 · Week 4: 6.5

0.19rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

47%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 5

Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 WR accuracy: MAE 6.5, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 5 WR rankings

Who is the best wide receiver to start in Week 5 Half-PPR?

CeeDee Lamb, our WR1 with a 14.6-point median; Jaxon Smith-Njigba is WR2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09

Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Week 4 WR accuracyMAE 6.5 · top-12 hit 4/12

Rankings versionv2 · Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-0803

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 5 · other positionsQuarterback Running Back Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

WR · other formatsWeek 5 WR — PPR Week 5 WR — Standard

WR · other weeksWeek 4 WR Week 6 WR Rest-of-season Wide Receiver 2026 draft WR

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VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version