HOU D/ST is our DST1 for Week 5 in Half-PPR, ahead of MIN D/ST and CIN D/ST. This is the first published version of this board.
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||||||||||
| 1 | HOU D/ST HOU @ TEN | HOU | @ TEN | 8.0 | 15.0 | DST4 | +7.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 2 | MIN D/ST MIN @ NO | MIN | @ NO | 8.0 | 11.0 | DST7 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 3 | CIN D/ST CIN @ MIA | CIN | @ MIA | 7.0 | 9.0 | DST9 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 4 | DEN D/ST DEN @ LAC | DEN | @ LAC | 7.0 | 12.0 | DST5 | +5.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 5 | JAX D/ST JAX vs PHI | JAX | vs PHI | 7.0 | 2.0 | DST20 | -5.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 6 | CHI D/ST CHI @ GB | CHI | @ GB | 6.0 | 1.0 | DST23 | -5.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 7 | CLE D/ST CLE @ NYJ | CLE | @ NYJ | 6.0 | 9.0 | DST10 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 8 | LAC D/ST LAC vs DEN | LAC | vs DEN | 6.0 | 3.0 | DST19 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 9 | LV D/ST LV @ NE | LV | @ NE | 6.0 | -1.0 | DST29 | -7.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 10 | PIT D/ST PIT vs IND | PIT | vs IND | 6.0 | 1.0 | DST24 | -5.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 11 | SEA D/ST SEA vs SF | SEA | vs SF | 6.0 | 6.0 | DST13 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 12 | WAS D/ST WAS vs NYG | WAS | vs NYG | 6.0 | 6.0 | DST14 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 13 | ATL D/ST ATL vs BAL | ATL | vs BAL | 5.0 | 11.0 | DST8 | +6.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 14 | BAL D/ST BAL @ ATL | BAL | @ ATL | 5.0 | 5.0 | DST16 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 15 | DET D/ST DET @ ARI | DET | @ ARI | 5.0 | 7.0 | DST11 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 16 | GB D/ST GB vs CHI | GB | vs CHI | 5.0 | 18.0 | DST2 | +13.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 17 | NE D/ST NE vs LV | NE | vs LV | 5.0 | 6.0 | DST15 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 18 | NO D/ST NO vs MIN | NO | vs MIN | 5.0 | 12.0 | DST6 | +7.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 19 | NYG D/ST NYG @ WAS | NYG | @ WAS | 5.0 | 5.0 | DST17 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 20 | NYJ D/ST NYJ vs CLE | NYJ | vs CLE | 5.0 | 16.0 | DST3 | +11.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 21 | ARI D/ST ARI vs DET | ARI | vs DET | 4.0 | -1.0 | DST30 | -5.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 0.0–8.0. | |
| 22 | BUF D/ST BUF @ LA | BUF | @ LA (Mon) | 4.0 | 2.0 | DST21 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 0.0–8.0. | |
| 23 | DAL D/ST DAL vs TB | DAL | vs TB (Thu) | 4.0 | 1.0 | DST25 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 24 | IND D/ST IND @ PIT | IND | @ PIT | 4.0 | 0.0 | DST28 | -4.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 25 | LA D/ST LA vs BUF | LA | vs BUF (Mon) | 4.0 | 1.0 | DST26 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 26 | MIA D/ST MIA vs CIN | MIA | vs CIN | 4.0 | 1.0 | DST27 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 1.0–8.0. | |
| 27 | PHI D/ST PHI @ JAX | PHI | @ JAX | 4.0 | 5.0 | DST18 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 1.0–8.0. | |
| 28 | TB D/ST TB @ DAL | TB | @ DAL (Thu) | 4.0 | 7.0 | DST12 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 0.0–8.0. | |
| 29 | TEN D/ST TEN vs HOU | TEN | vs HOU | 4.0 | 2.0 | DST22 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 30 | SF D/ST SF @ SEA | SF | @ SEA | 3.0 | 20.0 | DST1 | +17.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 0.0–7.0. | |
Showing 24 of 30 · tiers 1+ below
What the numbers say
4.1mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 24 · Week 4: 2.3
0.30rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
5 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
54%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
The engine's read on Week 5
Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 DST accuracy: MAE 2.3, top-12 hit 7/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 5 DST rankings
Who is the best defense to start in Week 5 Half-PPR?
HOU D/ST, our DST1 with a 8.0-point median; MIN D/ST is DST2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09
Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 4 DST accuracyMAE 2.3 · top-12 hit 7/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 6, 5:31 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w5-20261006T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version