Week 5 Running Back Rankings & Results — Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET (v2) · results scored Tue, Oct 13, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jahmyr Gibbs is our RB1 for Week 5 in Half-PPR, ahead of Bijan Robinson and Kyren Williams. The biggest riser since the last publish is Tyler Allgeier (RB35→RB33); the biggest faller is Kyle Monangai (RB14→RB47).

Week 5 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

Results table

Week 5 RB · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range · bye-week teams (CAR, KC) excluded
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	18.2	35.2	RB1	+17.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 10.5–27.5.
2	Bijan Robinson ATL vs BAL	ATL	vs BAL	16.9	13.8	RB17	-3.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 10.0–26.0.
3	Kyren Williams LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	15.6	16.6	RB8	+1.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 9.1–24.1.
4	Derrick Henry BAL @ ATL	BAL	@ ATL	15.6	20.5	RB5	+4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 8.5–24.4.
5	Jonathan Taylor IND @ PIT	IND	@ PIT	14.6	9.7	RB22	-4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 7.9–22.9.
Tier 2
6	Javonte Williams DAL vs TB · locked	DAL	vs TB (Thu)	13.4	13.2	RB18	-0.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 7.2–20.9.
7	Christian McCaffrey SF @ SEA	SF	@ SEA	13.0	15.8	RB11	+2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 6.9–21.1.
8	Chase Brown CIN @ MIA	CIN	@ MIA	12.4	5.5	RB28	-6.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 7.3–19.3.
9	James Cook BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	12.1	22.3	RB4	+10.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 6.5–19.6.
10	Jaylen Warren PIT vs IND	PIT	vs IND	11.9	33.8	RB2	+21.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 7.2–18.6.
11	Ashton Jeanty LV @ NE · Questionable	LV	@ NE	11.6	9.2	RB23	-2.4	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 57% — median 11.6 if he plays.
12	Aaron Jones MIN @ NO	MIN	@ NO	11.3	17.2	RB7	+5.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 6.5–17.9.
13	D'Andre Swift CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	11.1	15.3	RB12	+4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 5.9–18.2.
14	Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs LV · Questionable	NE	vs LV	10.0	16.0	RB10	+6.0	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 90% — median 10.0 if he plays.
15	Omarion Hampton LAC vs DEN	LAC	vs DEN	9.7	4.4	RB30	-5.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 4.2–16.8.
16	Cam Skattebo NYG @ WAS	NYG	@ WAS	9.4	6.1	RB27	-3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 4.6–16.0.
17	Bhayshul Tuten JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	9.2	10.6	RB20	+1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 4.2–15.9.
18	Quinshon Judkins CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	9.1	6.5	RB26	-2.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 4.6–15.6.
19	Jeremiyah Love ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	8.9	2.2	RB36	-6.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 4.4–15.4.
20	RJ Harvey DEN @ LAC	DEN	@ LAC	8.8	0.7	RB45	-8.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 4.1–15.2.
21	Bucky Irving TB @ DAL · locked	TB	@ DAL (Thu)	8.6	30.5	RB3	+21.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 4.5–14.9.
22	Emanuel Wilson SEA vs SF	SEA	vs SF	8.5	12.2	RB19	+3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 3.9–14.9.
23	Tony Pollard TEN vs HOU	TEN	vs HOU	8.4	5.2	RB29	-3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 4.2–14.8.
24	Brian Robinson ATL vs BAL	ATL	vs BAL	8.0	1.6	RB39	-6.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 2.9–14.2.
25	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS vs NYG	WAS	vs NYG	7.5	14.2	RB16	+6.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 3.2–13.7.
26	Alvin Kamara NO vs MIN · Questionable	NO	vs MIN	7.4	1.6	RB40	-5.8	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 79% — median 7.4 if he plays.
27	TreVeyon Henderson NE vs LV	NE	vs LV	7.3	4.3	RB32	-3.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 3.1–13.2.
28	David Montgomery HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	6.8	1.1	RB43	-5.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 2.5–13.0.
29	Ollie Gordon II MIA vs CIN	MIA	vs CIN	6.7	14.8	RB13	+8.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 2.8–12.5.
30	J.K. Dobbins DEN @ LAC	DEN	@ LAC	6.2	14.4	RB15	+8.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 3.1–11.5.
31	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	6.2	1.6	RB41	-4.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 1.7–12.4.
32	Woody Marks HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	6.1	10.5	RB21	+4.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 2.1–12.0.
33	Tyler Allgeier ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	5.7	2.6	RB35	-3.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 2.2–11.6.
34	Braelon Allen NYJ vs CLE	NYJ	vs CLE	5.6	18.1	RB6	+12.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 2.1–11.7.
35	Keaton Mitchell LAC vs DEN	LAC	vs DEN	5.2	4.4	RB31	-0.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 2.1–10.5.
36	MarShawn Lloyd GB vs CHI	GB	vs CHI	5.1	16.2	RB9	+11.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 2.2–10.3.
37	Blake Corum LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	5.1	14.7	RB14	+9.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 2.4–10.1.
38	Ty Johnson BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	5.0	9.2	RB24	+4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 1.8–10.4.
39	Kenny Gainwell TB @ DAL · locked	TB	@ DAL (Thu)	4.9	4.3	RB33	-0.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 1.8–10.3.
40	Austin Ekeler WAS vs NYG	WAS	vs NYG	4.7	1.9	RB37	-2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 2.1–9.6.
41	Mike Washington Jr. LV @ NE	LV	@ NE	4.7	1.5	RB42	-3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 1.5–10.5.
42	Tank Bigsby PHI @ JAX	PHI	@ JAX	4.3	0.0	RB46	-4.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 1.5–9.9.
43	Bam Knight ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	4.0	0.8	RB44	-3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 1.0–9.6.
44	Raheim Sanders CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	3.6	1.8	RB38	-1.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 1.4–8.2.
45	George Holani SEA vs SF · Questionable	SEA	vs SF	3.6	3.1	RB34	-0.5	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 66% — median 3.6 if he plays.
46	Kendre Miller NO vs MIN	NO	vs MIN	3.6	9.0	RB25	+5.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 1.3–8.8.
47	Kyle Monangai CHI @ GB · Out	CHI	@ GB	0.0	0.0	RB47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Saquon Barkley PHI @ JAX · Out	PHI	@ JAX	0.0	0.0	RB48	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 2+ below

What the numbers say

6.3mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 36 · Week 4: 6.2

0.40rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

7 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

56%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 5

Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 RB accuracy: MAE 6.2, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 5 RB rankings

Who is the best running back to start in Week 5 Half-PPR?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our RB1 with a 18.2-point median; Bijan Robinson is RB2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09

Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Week 4 RB accuracyMAE 6.2 · top-12 hit 4/12

Rankings versionv2 · Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-0803

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 5 · other positionsQuarterback Wide Receiver Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

RB · other formatsWeek 5 RB — PPR Week 5 RB — Standard

RB · other weeksWeek 4 RB Week 6 RB Rest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

This weekWeek 5 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version