Week 5 Running Back Rankings & Results — Standard

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET (v2) · results scored Tue, Oct 13, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jahmyr Gibbs is our RB1 for Week 5 in Standard, ahead of Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. The biggest riser since the last publish is Woody Marks (RB34→RB32); the biggest faller is Kyle Monangai (RB10→RB47).

Week 5 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

Results table

Week 5 RB · Standard · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range · bye-week teams (CAR, KC) excluded
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	16.1	32.7	RB1	+16.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 8.9–25.1.
2	Bijan Robinson ATL vs BAL	ATL	vs BAL	15.4	11.8	RB18	-3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 8.6–24.2.
3	Derrick Henry BAL @ ATL	BAL	@ ATL	14.8	20.0	RB5	+5.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 7.8–23.6.
Tier 2 · Start
4	Kyren Williams LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	13.5	13.6	RB13	+0.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 7.4–21.4.
5	Jonathan Taylor IND @ PIT	IND	@ PIT	13.4	8.2	RB23	-5.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 6.9–21.5.
Tier 3
6	Javonte Williams DAL vs TB · locked	DAL	vs TB (Thu)	12.0	12.2	RB17	+0.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 5.8–19.1.
7	James Cook BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	11.3	21.8	RB4	+10.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 5.9–18.7.
8	Christian McCaffrey SF @ SEA	SF	@ SEA	11.1	14.3	RB11	+3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 5.3–18.6.
9	Jaylen Warren PIT vs IND	PIT	vs IND	10.5	30.8	RB2	+20.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 6.3–16.8.
10	D'Andre Swift CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	10.2	13.3	RB15	+3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 5.1–17.0.
11	Chase Brown CIN @ MIA	CIN	@ MIA	10.1	4.0	RB29	-6.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 5.6–16.5.
12	Aaron Jones MIN @ NO	MIN	@ NO	10.0	15.7	RB7	+5.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 5.5–16.3.
13	Ashton Jeanty LV @ NE · Questionable	LV	@ NE	9.8	7.7	RB24	-2.1	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 57% — median 9.8 if he plays.
14	Omarion Hampton LAC vs DEN	LAC	vs DEN	8.8	3.9	RB30	-4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 3.5–15.7.
15	Rhamondre Stevenson NE vs LV · Questionable	NE	vs LV	8.8	14.5	RB10	+5.7	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 90% — median 8.8 if he plays.
16	Cam Skattebo NYG @ WAS	NYG	@ WAS	8.4	5.1	RB27	-3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 3.9–14.8.
17	Bhayshul Tuten JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	8.4	9.6	RB20	+1.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 3.7–14.9.
18	Emanuel Wilson SEA vs SF	SEA	vs SF	7.9	11.2	RB19	+3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 3.5–14.1.
19	Jeremiyah Love ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	7.8	2.2	RB34	-5.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 3.5–14.1.
20	Brian Robinson ATL vs BAL	ATL	vs BAL	7.7	1.6	RB35	-6.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 2.6–13.6.
21	Quinshon Judkins CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	7.5	5.0	RB28	-2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 3.5–13.6.
22	Tony Pollard TEN vs HOU	TEN	vs HOU	7.3	5.2	RB26	-2.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 3.5–13.5.
23	Bucky Irving TB @ DAL · locked	TB	@ DAL (Thu)	7.3	29.5	RB3	+22.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 3.7–13.4.
24	TreVeyon Henderson NE vs LV	NE	vs LV	6.8	3.8	RB31	-3.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 2.9–12.7.
25	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS vs NYG	WAS	vs NYG	6.8	14.2	RB12	+7.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 2.7–12.9.
26	RJ Harvey DEN @ LAC	DEN	@ LAC	6.4	0.7	RB43	-5.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 2.6–12.3.
27	Alvin Kamara NO vs MIN · Questionable	NO	vs MIN	6.0	0.6	RB44	-5.4	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 79% — median 6.0 if he plays.
28	David Montgomery HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	6.0	1.1	RB39	-4.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 2.0–12.1.
29	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	6.0	1.1	RB40	-4.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 1.6–12.1.
30	Ollie Gordon II MIA vs CIN	MIA	vs CIN	5.8	14.8	RB9	+9.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 2.3–11.5.
31	J.K. Dobbins DEN @ LAC	DEN	@ LAC	5.6	13.4	RB14	+7.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 2.8–10.8.
32	Woody Marks HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	5.1	8.5	RB22	+3.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 1.6–11.0.
33	Braelon Allen NYJ vs CLE	NYJ	vs CLE	4.7	17.6	RB6	+12.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 1.6–10.7.
34	Blake Corum LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	4.5	13.2	RB16	+8.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 2.1–9.4.
35	Tyler Allgeier ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	4.4	1.6	RB36	-2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 1.5–10.3.
36	Mike Washington Jr. LV @ NE	LV	@ NE	4.2	1.0	RB41	-3.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 1.3–10.0.
37	Keaton Mitchell LAC vs DEN	LAC	vs DEN	4.0	2.9	RB32	-1.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 1.5–9.2.
38	MarShawn Lloyd GB vs CHI	GB	vs CHI	3.8	15.7	RB8	+11.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 1.5–8.9.
39	Austin Ekeler WAS vs NYG	WAS	vs NYG	3.7	1.4	RB37	-2.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 1.6–8.4.
40	Tank Bigsby PHI @ JAX	PHI	@ JAX	3.7	0.0	RB45	-3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 1.2–9.4.
41	Ty Johnson BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	3.6	7.2	RB25	+3.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 1.2–9.0.
42	Kenny Gainwell TB @ DAL · locked	TB	@ DAL (Thu)	3.3	2.8	RB33	-0.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 1.1–8.7.
43	Bam Knight ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	3.1	0.8	RB42	-2.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 0.7–8.7.
44	Jaleel McLaughlin CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	3.0	0.0	RB46	-3.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 1.0–8.5.
45	Najee Harris NYG @ WAS	NYG	@ WAS	3.0	1.4	RB38	-1.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 1.0–7.6.
46	Kendre Miller NO vs MIN	NO	vs MIN	2.9	9.0	RB21	+6.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 0.9–8.1.
47	Kyle Monangai CHI @ GB · Out	CHI	@ GB	0.0	0.0	RB47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Saquon Barkley PHI @ JAX · Out	PHI	@ JAX	0.0	0.0	RB48	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 3+ below

What the numbers say

6.1mean abs. error · Standard points, top 36 · Week 4: 5.9

0.43rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

6 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

53%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 5

Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 RB accuracy: MAE 5.9, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 5 RB rankings

Who is the best running back to start in Week 5 Standard?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our RB1 with a 16.1-point median; Bijan Robinson is RB2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09

Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Week 4 RB accuracyMAE 5.9 · top-12 hit 4/12

Rankings versionv2 · Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-0803

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 5 · other positionsQuarterback Wide Receiver Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

RB · other formatsWeek 5 RB — PPR Week 5 RB — Half-PPR

RB · other weeksWeek 4 RB Week 6 RB Rest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

This weekWeek 5 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version