Brandon Aubrey is our K1 for Week 5 in Standard, ahead of Cairo Santos and Jason Myers. This is the first published version of this board.
Results table
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Proj | Range | Actual | Finish | Δ | Hit | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||||||||||
| 1 | Brandon Aubrey DAL vs TB | DAL | vs TB (Thu) | 9.0 | 5.0 | K22 | -4.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 4.0–14.0. | |
| 2 | Cairo Santos CHI @ GB | CHI | @ GB | 8.0 | 0.0 | K30 | -8.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 3 | Jason Myers SEA vs SF | SEA | vs SF | 8.0 | 23.0 | K1 | +15.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 4 | Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU @ TEN | HOU | @ TEN | 8.0 | 17.0 | K3 | +9.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 5 | Eddy Pineiro SF @ SEA | SF | @ SEA | 8.0 | 6.0 | K19 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 6 | Tyler Bass BUF @ LA | BUF | @ LA (Mon) | 8.0 | 13.0 | K6 | +5.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 7 | Evan McPherson CIN @ MIA | CIN | @ MIA | 8.0 | 7.0 | K15 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 8 | Chad Ryland ARI vs DET | ARI | vs DET | 8.0 | 2.0 | K27 | -6.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 9 | Jake Bates DET @ ARI | DET | @ ARI | 8.0 | 10.0 | K9 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 4.0–14.0. | |
| 10 | Will Reichard MIN @ NO | MIN | @ NO | 8.0 | 16.0 | K4 | +8.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 11 | Cam Little JAX vs PHI | JAX | vs PHI | 8.0 | 9.0 | K12 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 12 | Harrison Mevis LA vs BUF | LA | vs BUF (Mon) | 8.0 | 2.0 | K28 | -6.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 13 | Spencer Shrader IND @ PIT | IND | @ PIT | 8.0 | 21.0 | K2 | +13.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 14 | Tyler Loop BAL @ ATL | BAL | @ ATL | 8.0 | 14.0 | K5 | +6.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 15 | Nick Folk ATL vs BAL | ATL | vs BAL | 7.0 | 12.0 | K8 | +5.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 16 | Chris Boswell PIT vs IND | PIT | vs IND | 7.0 | 13.0 | K7 | +6.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 17 | Wil Lutz DEN @ LAC | DEN | @ LAC | 7.0 | 10.0 | K10 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 18 | Jake Elliott PHI @ JAX | PHI | @ JAX | 7.0 | 6.0 | K20 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 19 | Daniel Carlson NO vs MIN | NO | vs MIN | 7.0 | 1.0 | K29 | -6.0 | Miss | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 20 | Jason Sanders NYJ vs CLE | NYJ | vs CLE | 7.0 | 7.0 | K16 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 21 | Matt Gay LV @ NE | LV | @ NE | 7.0 | 5.0 | K23 | -2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 4.0–12.0. | |
| 22 | Chase McLaughlin TB @ DAL | TB | @ DAL (Thu) | 7.0 | 7.0 | K17 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DAL · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 23 | Riley Patterson MIA vs CIN | MIA | vs CIN | 7.0 | 4.0 | K24 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 24 | Cameron Dicker LAC vs DEN | LAC | vs DEN | 7.0 | 6.0 | K21 | -1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 25 | Andre Szmyt CLE @ NYJ | CLE | @ NYJ | 7.0 | 7.0 | K18 | 0.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 26 | Andy Borregales NE vs LV | NE | vs LV | 7.0 | 9.0 | K13 | +2.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 27 | Trey Smack GB vs CHI | GB | vs CHI | 7.0 | 3.0 | K25 | -4.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 28 | Dominic Zvada NYG @ WAS | NYG | @ WAS | 7.0 | 10.0 | K11 | +3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 29 | Drew Stevens WAS vs NYG | WAS | vs NYG | 7.0 | 8.0 | K14 | +1.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYG · 20–80 range 4.0–13.0. | |
| 30 | Joey Slye TEN vs HOU | TEN | vs HOU | 6.0 | 3.0 | K26 | -3.0 | Hit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
Showing 24 of 30 · tiers 1+ below
What the numbers say
4.7mean abs. error · Standard points, top 24 · Week 4: 4.0
0.19rank correlation · Spearman, top 24
5 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
58%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
The engine's read on Week 5
Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 K accuracy: MAE 4.0, top-12 hit 6/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Common questions about Week 5 K rankings
Who is the best kicker to start in Week 5 Standard?
Brandon Aubrey, our K1 with a 9.0-point median; Cairo Santos is K2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09
Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 4 K accuracyMAE 4.0 · top-12 hit 6/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 6, 5:31 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w5-20261006T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version