Week 5 Wide Receiver Rankings & Results — Standard

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET (v2) · results scored Tue, Oct 13, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is our WR1 for Week 5 in Standard, ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Zay Flowers. The biggest riser since the last publish is Jaylin Noel (WR48→WR45); the biggest faller is Stefon Diggs (WR18→WR46).

Week 5 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Wide Receiver 2026 draft WR

Results table

Week 5 WR · Standard · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range · bye-week teams (CAR, KC) excluded
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA vs SF	SEA	vs SF	11.2	17.8	WR7	+6.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 4.9–20.0.
2	CeeDee Lamb DAL vs TB · locked	DAL	vs TB (Thu)	10.9	0.9	WR38	-10.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 4.9–19.5.
3	Zay Flowers BAL @ ATL · Questionable	BAL	@ ATL	10.2	6.6	WR19	-3.6	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 10.2 if he plays.
4	Puka Nacua LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	10.1	20.7	WR3	+10.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 4.7–18.2.
5	Chris Olave NO vs MIN	NO	vs MIN	9.5	4.6	WR27	-4.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 4.5–17.7.
6	Nico Collins HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	9.4	5.6	WR23	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 3.8–17.1.
7	Amon-Ra St. Brown DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	9.0	6.9	WR17	-2.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 3.6–16.5.
8	Tee Higgins CIN @ MIA · Questionable	CIN	@ MIA	8.4	2.2	WR34	-6.2	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 97% — median 8.4 if he plays.
9	Michael Wilson ARI vs DET	ARI	vs DET	7.7	3.3	WR30	-4.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 3.5–14.5.
10	Christian Watson GB vs CHI	GB	vs CHI	7.6	26.3	WR1	+18.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 3.2–14.6.
11	Davante Adams LA vs BUF	LA	vs BUF (Mon)	7.5	17.1	WR8	+9.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 3.3–14.8.
12	Drake London ATL vs BAL	ATL	vs BAL	7.4	11.8	WR13	+4.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 3.6–14.2.
Tier 2 · Start
13	Ja'Marr Chase CIN @ MIA · Questionable	CIN	@ MIA	6.2	13.7	WR12	+7.5	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 79% — median 6.2 if he plays.
14	Carnell Tate TEN vs HOU · Questionable	TEN	vs HOU	5.9	0.6	WR39	-5.3	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 5.9 if he plays.
15	Garrett Wilson NYJ vs CLE	NYJ	vs CLE	5.8	16.4	WR10	+10.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CLE · 20–80 range 2.1–12.4.
16	Denzel Boston CLE @ NYJ	CLE	@ NYJ	5.6	10.6	WR14	+5.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYJ · 20–80 range 2.2–12.4.
17	Luther Burden III CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	5.5	4.9	WR25	-0.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 2.2–12.0.
18	Parker Washington JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	5.3	24.4	WR2	+19.1	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 2.1–11.7.
19	Romeo Doubs NE vs LV	NE	vs LV	5.3	1.6	WR36	-3.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LV · 20–80 range 1.9–11.9.
20	Deebo Samuel Sr. SF @ SEA	SF	@ SEA	5.1	0.5	WR40	-4.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 1.9–11.2.
21	DK Metcalf PIT vs IND	PIT	vs IND	5.1	2.3	WR33	-2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 2.0–11.3.
22	Matthew Golden GB vs CHI	GB	vs CHI	4.8	14.3	WR11	+9.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 1.9–11.0.
23	Malik Nabers NYG @ WAS	NYG	@ WAS	4.7	18.1	WR6	+13.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 1.9–10.8.
24	Devaughn Vele NO vs MIN	NO	vs MIN	4.6	2.6	WR32	-2.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 1.8–10.7.
25	Jameson Williams DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	4.5	16.7	WR9	+12.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 2.0–9.9.
26	George Pickens DAL vs TB · locked	DAL	vs TB (Thu)	4.5	19.0	WR5	+14.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 1.9–10.0.
27	Jaylen Waddle DEN @ LAC	DEN	@ LAC	4.5	2.8	WR31	-1.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LAC · 20–80 range 1.8–10.4.
28	Malik Washington MIA vs CIN	MIA	vs CIN	4.5	6.1	WR22	+1.6	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CIN · 20–80 range 1.9–10.1.
29	Keon Coleman BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	4.4	6.7	WR18	+2.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 1.8–10.2.
30	Mike Evans SF @ SEA	SF	@ SEA	4.4	19.3	WR4	+14.9	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 1.7–10.3.
31	Rome Odunze CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	4.2	2.0	WR35	-2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 1.8–9.6.
32	Jordan Addison MIN @ NO · Questionable	MIN	@ NO	4.1	0.0	WR42	-4.1	Miss	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 4.1 if he plays.
33	Roman Wilson PIT vs IND	PIT	vs IND	4.0	0.0	WR43	-4.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 1.5–9.9.
34	Tre Tucker LV @ NE	LV	@ NE	3.9	3.5	WR29	-0.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 1.7–9.2.
35	Wan'Dale Robinson TEN vs HOU	TEN	vs HOU	3.9	5.3	WR24	+1.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 1.1–10.2.
36	Josh Downs IND @ PIT	IND	@ PIT	3.9	4.7	WR26	+0.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 1.7–8.9.
37	Jakobi Meyers JAX vs PHI	JAX	vs PHI	3.8	3.7	WR28	-0.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PHI · 20–80 range 1.5–9.2.
38	Kalif Raymond CHI @ GB	CHI	@ GB	3.8	0.4	WR41	-3.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 1.5–9.2.
39	Isaac TeSlaa DET @ ARI	DET	@ ARI	3.7	0.0	WR44	-3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 1.5–8.8.
40	Tre Harris LAC vs DEN	LAC	vs DEN	3.6	1.6	WR37	-2.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 1.6–8.0.
41	Dontayvion Wicks PHI @ JAX	PHI	@ JAX	3.5	6.3	WR21	+2.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 1.4–8.4.
42	Khalil Shakir BUF @ LA	BUF	@ LA (Mon)	3.4	8.0	WR16	+4.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 1.4–7.9.
43	Xavier Hutchinson HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	3.4	6.5	WR20	+3.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 1.4–7.8.
44	Ladd McConkey LAC vs DEN · Questionable	LAC	vs DEN	3.2	0.0	WR45	-3.2	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 41% — median 3.2 if he plays.
45	Jaylin Noel HOU @ TEN	HOU	@ TEN	3.1	10.2	WR15	+7.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 1.0–7.9.
46	Stefon Diggs WAS vs NYG · Out	WAS	vs NYG	0.0	0.0	WR46	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
47	Mack Hollins NE vs LV · Out	NE	vs LV	0.0	0.0	WR47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Quentin Johnston LAC vs DEN · Out	LAC	vs DEN	0.0	0.0	WR48	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 2+ below

What the numbers say

6.4mean abs. error · Standard points, top 36 · Week 4: 5.5

0.21rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

47%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 5

Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 WR accuracy: MAE 5.5, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 5 WR rankings

Who is the best wide receiver to start in Week 5 Standard?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, our WR1 with a 11.2-point median; CeeDee Lamb is WR2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09

Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Week 4 WR accuracyMAE 5.5 · top-12 hit 4/12

Rankings versionv2 · Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-0803

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 5 · other positionsQuarterback Running Back Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

WR · other formatsWeek 5 WR — PPR Week 5 WR — Half-PPR

WR · other weeksWeek 4 WR Week 6 WR Rest-of-season Wide Receiver 2026 draft WR

This weekWeek 5 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version