Week 4 Running Back Rankings & Results — Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · Final board published Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET (v6) · results scored Tue, Oct 6, 5:01 AM ET

Week4 5 6

Jahmyr Gibbs is our RB1 for Week 4 in Half-PPR, ahead of Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. The biggest riser since the last publish is Tyjae Spears (RB44→RB41); the biggest faller is Breece Hall (RB17→RB46).

Week 4 boardsQB RB WR TE Flex K DST OverallAlsoRest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

Results table

Week 4 RB · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range
Rank	Player	Team	Opp	Proj	Actual	Finish	Δ	Hit	Note
Tier 1 · Must start
1	Jahmyr Gibbs DET @ CAR	DET	@ CAR	19.5	15.7	RB13	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CAR · 20–80 range 11.7–29.4.
Tier 2 · Start
2	Bijan Robinson ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	17.7	27.2	RB5	+9.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 10.7–26.8.
3	Derrick Henry BAL vs TEN	BAL	vs TEN	16.9	14.9	RB16	-2.0	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 9.4–26.1.
Tier 3
4	Kenneth Walker III KC @ LV	KC	@ LV	15.2	30.4	RB2	+15.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 8.8–23.5.
5	Jonathan Taylor IND @ WAS	IND	@ WAS	14.7	22.2	RB9	+7.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ WAS · 20–80 range 8.0–23.0.
6	Christian McCaffrey SF vs DEN	SF	vs DEN	13.7	14.5	RB18	+0.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DEN · 20–80 range 7.5–22.2.
7	James Cook BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	12.8	15.3	RB15	+2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 6.9–20.6.
8	Kyren Williams LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	12.5	31.7	RB1	+19.2	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 7.0–19.8.
9	Jaylen Warren PIT @ CLE · locked	PIT	@ CLE (Thu)	12.4	14.1	RB20	+1.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 7.3–19.7.
10	D'Andre Swift CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	12.1	6.4	RB31	-5.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 6.4–19.7.
11	Chase Brown CIN vs JAX	CIN	vs JAX	11.9	13.6	RB21	+1.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs JAX · 20–80 range 6.6–19.0.
12	Ashton Jeanty LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	11.7	15.6	RB14	+3.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 6.8–18.3.
13	Javonte Williams DAL @ HOU	DAL	@ HOU	11.0	28.8	RB3	+17.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ HOU · 20–80 range 5.8–17.8.
14	Cam Skattebo NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	10.9	7.1	RB30	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 5.4–18.6.
15	Aaron Jones MIN vs MIA	MIN	vs MIA	10.5	14.8	RB17	+4.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIA · 20–80 range 5.8–17.0.
16	Jeremiyah Love ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	10.2	6.0	RB34	-4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 5.2–17.1.
17	Chuba Hubbard CAR vs DET	CAR	vs DET	9.6	25.4	RB7	+15.8	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 4.8–16.2.
18	Bucky Irving TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	9.6	6.1	RB33	-3.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 5.1–16.3.
19	Omarion Hampton LAC @ SEA	LAC	@ SEA	9.4	12.3	RB22	+2.9	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 4.3–16.6.
20	Rhamondre Stevenson NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	9.2	16.9	RB12	+7.7	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 4.4–15.9.
21	De'Von Achane MIA @ MIN	MIA	@ MIN	8.5	0.0	RB43	-8.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIN · 20–80 range 4.5–14.6.
22	TreVeyon Henderson NE @ BUF	NE	@ BUF	8.4	4.2	RB37	-4.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BUF · 20–80 range 3.6–15.2.
23	Tony Pollard TEN @ BAL	TEN	@ BAL	8.3	12.0	RB23	+3.7	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ BAL · 20–80 range 4.8–13.7.
24	Bhayshul Tuten JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	8.3	10.1	RB25	+1.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 3.5–14.7.
25	David Montgomery HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	8.1	4.3	RB36	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 3.5–14.3.
26	Saquon Barkley PHI vs LA	PHI	vs LA	8.1	1.5	RB41	-6.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LA · 20–80 range 4.5–13.8.
27	RJ Harvey DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	8.0	14.3	RB19	+6.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 3.6–14.4.
28	Jacory Croskey-Merritt WAS vs IND	WAS	vs IND	7.8	6.0	RB35	-1.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 3.3–14.2.
29	Travis Etienne NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	7.6	0.0	RB44	-7.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 3.9–13.3.
30	Quinshon Judkins CLE vs PIT · locked	CLE	vs PIT (Thu)	7.3	18.6	RB11	+11.3	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 3.7–12.8.
31	Kyle Monangai CHI vs NYJ	CHI	vs NYJ	6.9	27.5	RB4	+20.6	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.4–12.7.
32	J.K. Dobbins DEN @ SF	DEN	@ SF	6.6	6.2	RB32	-0.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 3.3–12.0.
33	Ty Johnson BUF vs NE	BUF	vs NE	6.0	2.2	RB39	-3.8	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NE · 20–80 range 2.0–11.9.
34	Woody Marks HOU vs DAL	HOU	vs DAL	6.0	8.2	RB28	+2.2	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 2.3–11.9.
35	Blake Corum LA @ PHI	LA	@ PHI	5.9	2.6	RB38	-3.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.8–11.6.
36	Kenny Gainwell TB vs GB	TB	vs GB	5.3	9.7	RB26	+4.4	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs GB · 20–80 range 2.0–10.7.
37	Chris Rodriguez Jr. JAX @ CIN	JAX	@ CIN	5.2	9.5	RB27	+4.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CIN · 20–80 range 1.7–11.3.
38	Alvin Kamara NO vs ATL	NO	vs ATL (Mon)	4.9	20.3	RB10	+15.4	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ATL · 20–80 range 2.1–10.0.
39	Brian Robinson ATL @ NO	ATL	@ NO (Mon)	4.7	25.2	RB8	+20.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 1.6–10.5.
40	Mike Washington Jr. LV vs KC	LV	vs KC	4.7	2.2	RB40	-2.5	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs KC · 20–80 range 1.5–10.9.
41	Tyjae Spears TEN @ BAL · Questionable	TEN	@ BAL	4.5	1.1	RB42	-3.4	Hit	Questionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 4.5 if he plays.
42	Emanuel Wilson SEA vs LAC	SEA	vs LAC	4.5	25.5	RB6	+21.0	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 2.2–9.4.
43	Tyler Allgeier ARI @ NYG	ARI	@ NYG	4.4	11.9	RB24	+7.5	Miss	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 1.8–9.3.
44	MarShawn Lloyd GB @ TB	GB	@ TB	4.3	7.4	RB29	+3.1	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 1.7–9.5.
45	Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG vs ARI	NYG	vs ARI	4.2	-0.1	RB48	-4.3	Hit	Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 1.6–9.3.
46	Breece Hall NYJ @ CHI · Out	NYJ	@ CHI	0.0	0.0	RB45	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
47	Rachaad White WAS vs IND · Out	WAS	vs IND	0.0	0.0	RB46	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start
48	Jadarian Price SEA vs LAC · Out	SEA	vs LAC	0.0	0.0	RB47	0.0	Hit	Out (report seen Sat 16:30 ET) — do not start

Showing 24 of 48 · tiers 3+ below

What the numbers say

6.2mean abs. error · Half-PPR points, top 36

0.55rank correlation · Spearman, top 36

4 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12

67%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%

This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.

The engine's read on Week 4

Engine byline · no human author

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 4 RB rankings

Who is the best running back to start in Week 4 Half-PPR?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our RB1 with a 19.5-point median; Bijan Robinson is RB2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built

Projectionsens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18

Market2026-w04-2026-10-06-08

Simulation10,000 outcomes per player

Accuracyscored after the week flips

Rankings versionv6 · Sun, Oct 4, 8:01 AM ET

Ranks tagsunday-2026-w4-0801

Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits

More rankings

Week 4 · other positionsQuarterback Wide Receiver Tight End Flex Kicker Defense Overall

RB · other formatsWeek 4 RB — PPR Week 4 RB — Standard

RB · other weeksWeek 5 RB Week 6 RB Rest-of-season Running Back 2026 draft RB

This weekWeek 4 hub Ask about this board Waiver wire Injury report

VersionsRankings vf6aae813· projections ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-20260929-2026-w4-2026-09-29+mkt-2026-w04-2026-09-29-18· lines 2026-w04-2026-10-06-08· injuries 2026-10-04T15:35:34Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version