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Week 6 Flex Rankings — Half-PPR

Bijan Robinson is our Flex #1 for Week 6 in Half-PPR, ahead of Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. This is the first published version of this board.

Rankings table

Week 6 FLEX · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 PM ET · Chg since the previous publish · locked players kept at actual points · bye-week teams (CIN, DET, MIA, MIN) excluded
RankPlayerStatusTeamOppTotalProjRangeChgVerdictNote
Tier 1 · Must start
1Bijan Robinson RB1
ATL vs CHI · 52.0
—ATLvs CHI52.015.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 9.4–24.7.
2Puka Nacua WR1
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.515.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 8.4–26.4.
3Kyren Williams RB2
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.515.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 8.9–23.9.
4Derrick Henry RB3
BAL @ CLE · 39.5
—BAL@ CLE39.515.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 8.5–23.8.
5Jaylen Warren RB4
PIT @ TB · 39.0
—PIT@ TB39.014.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 8.7–23.4.
6Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR2
SEA @ DEN
—SEA@ DEN (Thu)final14.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 7.3–24.6.
7Javonte Williams RB5
DAL @ GB · 53.0
—DAL@ GB53.013.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 7.5–22.0.
8Jonathan Taylor RB6
IND vs TEN · 44.5
—INDvs TEN44.513.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 7.3–21.5.
9James Cook RB7
BUF @ LV · 53.5
—BUF@ LV53.513.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 7.3–21.5.
10Christian McCaffrey RB8
SF vs WAS · 51.5
—SFvs WAS (Mon)51.513.3—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 7.1–21.5.
11Christian Watson WR3
GB vs DAL · 53.0
—GBvs DAL53.012.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 6.0–21.9.
Tier 2
12Zay Flowers WR4
BAL @ CLE · 39.5
—BAL@ CLE39.511.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 6.0–20.3.
13Bucky Irving RB9
TB vs PIT · 39.0
—TBvs PIT39.011.7—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 6.5–18.6.
14D'Andre Swift RB10
CHI @ ATL · 52.0
—CHI@ ATL52.011.7—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 6.4–18.9.
15CeeDee Lamb WR5
DAL @ GB · 53.0
—DAL@ GB53.011.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 5.9–19.8.
16Brock Bowers TE1
LV vs BUF · 53.5
—LVvs BUF53.511.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 5.2–19.6.
17Ashton Jeanty RB11
LV vs BUF · 53.5
—LVvs BUF53.511.1—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 6.1–18.3.
18Chris Olave WR6
NO @ NYG · 46.0
—NO@ NYG46.011.0—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 5.7–19.3.
19Davante Adams WR7
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.511.0—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 4.9–19.4.
20Drake London WR8
ATL vs CHI · 52.0
—ATLvs CHI52.010.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 5.6–18.9.
21Rhamondre Stevenson RB12
NE vs NYJ · 43.5
—NEvs NYJ43.510.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 5.2–17.7.
22Parker Washington WR9
JAX vs HOU · 42.5
—JAXvs HOU42.510.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 4.6–18.0.
23Nico Collins WR10
HOU @ JAX · 42.5
—HOU@ JAX42.510.1—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 4.9–17.9.
24Malik Nabers WR11
NYG vs NO · 46.0
—NYGvs NO46.09.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NO · 20–80 range 4.8–17.2.
Showing 24 of 96 · tiers 2+ below

Key changes since the previous publish

First published version of this board — no changes to show yet.

The engine's read on Week 6
Engine byline · no human author · Week 5 FLEX accuracy: MAE 6.8, top-12 hit 3/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Tiers 1–2 in depth

Bijan RobinsonRB1 · ATL vs CHI
Median 15.9 · 20–80 range 9.3–24.7 · game total 52.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 9.4–24.7.
Puka NacuaWR1 · LA vs ARI
Median 15.9 · 20–80 range 8.4–26.4 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 8.4–26.4.
Kyren WilliamsRB2 · LA vs ARI
Median 15.5 · 20–80 range 8.9–23.9 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 8.9–23.9.
Derrick HenryRB3 · BAL @ CLE
Median 15.2 · 20–80 range 8.5–23.8 · game total 39.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 8.5–23.8.
Jaylen WarrenRB4 · PIT @ TB
Median 14.9 · 20–80 range 8.7–23.4 · game total 39.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 8.7–23.4.
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR2 · SEA @ DEN
Median 14.6 · 20–80 range 7.3–24.6. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 7.3–24.6.

Common questions about Week 6 FLEX rankings

Who is the best flex to start in Week 6 Half-PPR?

Bijan Robinson, our FLEX1 with a 15.9-point median; Puka Nacua is FLEX2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09
Market2026-w06-2026-10-16-20
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 5 FLEX accuracyMAE 6.8 · top-12 hit 3/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 13, 5:32 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w6-20261013T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
VersionsRankings v0850ba1e· projections ens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09· lines 2026-w06-2026-10-16-20· injuries 2026-10-15T22:45:25Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version