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Week 5 Flex Rankings & Results — PPR

Jahmyr Gibbs is our Flex #1 for Week 5 in PPR, ahead of Bijan Robinson and CeeDee Lamb. The biggest riser since the last publish is Ollie Gordon II (#80→#77); the biggest faller is Kyle Monangai (#28→#94).

Results table

Week 5 FLEX · PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 4:05 AM ET · Actual from final stats · Finish = actual rank on this board · Δ = actual − proj · Hit = within 6 ranks or inside the range · bye-week teams (CAR, KC) excluded
RankPlayerTeamOppProjRangeActualFinishΔHitNote
Tier 1 · Must start
1Jahmyr Gibbs RB1
DET @ ARI
DET@ ARI20.137.7FLEX1+17.6HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 11.9–30.2.
Tier 2
2Bijan Robinson RB2
ATL vs BAL
ATLvs BAL18.515.8FLEX30-2.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 11.2–27.9.
3CeeDee Lamb WR1
DAL vs TB · locked
DALvs TB (Thu)18.32.9FLEX79-15.4MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 9.8–29.4.
4Kyren Williams RB3
LA vs BUF
LAvs BUF (Mon)17.919.6FLEX23+1.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 10.7–26.9.
5Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR2
SEA vs SF
SEAvs SF17.822.8FLEX13+5.0HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SF · 20–80 range 9.3–29.1.
6Puka Nacua WR3
LA vs BUF
LAvs BUF (Mon)16.837.7FLEX2+20.9HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 9.2–27.5.
7Chris Olave WR4
NO vs MIN
NOvs MIN16.58.6FLEX51-7.9MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs MIN · 20–80 range 9.1–27.3.
8Derrick Henry RB4
BAL @ ATL
BAL@ ATL16.321.0FLEX19+4.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 9.1–25.3.
9Jonathan Taylor RB5
IND @ PIT
IND@ PIT15.811.2FLEX46-4.6HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PIT · 20–80 range 8.9–24.4.
10Zay Flowers WR5
BAL @ ATL · Questionable
BAL@ ATL15.314.6FLEX33-0.7HitQuestionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 81% — median 15.3 if he plays.
11Amon-Ra St. Brown WR6
DET @ ARI
DET@ ARI15.212.9FLEX40-2.3HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ARI · 20–80 range 7.9–24.9.
12Christian McCaffrey RB6
SF @ SEA
SF@ SEA15.117.3FLEX28+2.2HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SEA · 20–80 range 8.4–23.8.
13Javonte Williams RB7
DAL vs TB · locked
DALvs TB (Thu)14.914.2FLEX34-0.7HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TB · 20–80 range 8.4–22.8.
14Chase Brown RB8
CIN @ MIA
CIN@ MIA14.77.0FLEX60-7.7MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ MIA · 20–80 range 8.9–22.2.
15Nico Collins WR7
HOU @ TEN
HOU@ TEN13.910.6FLEX49-3.3HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TEN · 20–80 range 7.0–23.5.
16Trey McBride TE1
ARI vs DET
ARIvs DET13.821.6FLEX16+7.8HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 7.5–22.9.
17Tee Higgins WR8
CIN @ MIA · Questionable
CIN@ MIA13.84.2FLEX74-9.6MissQuestionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 97% — median 13.8 if he plays.
18Ashton Jeanty RB9
LV @ NE · Questionable
LV@ NE13.410.7FLEX48-2.7HitQuestionable (game-day report, seen Sat 16:30 ET): P(active) 57% — median 13.4 if he plays.
19Jaylen Warren RB10
PIT vs IND
PITvs IND13.336.8FLEX3+23.5MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs IND · 20–80 range 8.1–20.5.
20Michael Wilson WR9
ARI vs DET
ARIvs DET13.37.3FLEX58-6.0HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DET · 20–80 range 7.1–22.2.
21James Cook RB11
BUF @ LA
BUF@ LA (Mon)12.822.8FLEX14+10.0MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 7.1–20.5.
22Aaron Jones RB12
MIN @ NO
MIN@ NO12.618.7FLEX25+6.1HitEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NO · 20–80 range 7.3–19.6.
23Brock Bowers TE2
LV @ NE
LV@ NE12.423.0FLEX12+10.6MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 6.2–21.2.
24Davante Adams WR10
LA vs BUF
LAvs BUF (Mon)12.222.1FLEX15+10.0MissEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 6.0–21.3.
Showing 24 of 96 · tiers 2+ below

What the numbers say

7.9mean abs. error · PPR points, top 36 · Week 4: 7.5
0.15rank correlation · Spearman, top 36
2 / 12ranked top 12 who finished top 12
61%actuals inside the 20–80 range · target 60%
This version was published after the week's first kickoff, so it is scored as a retrospective, not a forecast.
The engine's read on Week 5
Engine byline · no human author · Week 4 FLEX accuracy: MAE 7.5, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Common questions about Week 5 FLEX rankings

Who is the best flex to start in Week 5 PPR?

Jahmyr Gibbs, our FLEX1 with a 20.1-point median; Bijan Robinson is FLEX2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09
Market2026-w05-2026-10-13-08
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 4 FLEX accuracyMAE 7.5 · top-12 hit 4/12
Rankings versionv2 · Sun, Oct 11, 8:03 AM ET
Ranks tagsunday-2026-w5-0803
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
VersionsRankings v4d5ad6bc· projections ens-fit-2026w04-mkt-2026-w5-2026-10-06+mkt-2026-w05-2026-10-06-09· lines 2026-w05-2026-10-13-08· injuries 2026-10-11T15:35:27Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version
Week 5 Flex Rankings — PPR · Red Zone Rank