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Week 6 Flex Rankings — Standard

Derrick Henry is our Flex #1 for Week 6 in Standard, ahead of Bijan Robinson and Kyren Williams. This is the first published version of this board.

Rankings table

Week 6 FLEX · Standard · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 1:05 PM ET · Chg since the previous publish · locked players kept at actual points · bye-week teams (CIN, DET, MIA, MIN) excluded
RankPlayerStatusTeamOppTotalProjRangeChgVerdictNote
Tier 1 · Must start
1Derrick Henry RB1
BAL @ CLE · 40.5
—BAL@ CLE40.514.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 7.8–22.9.
2Bijan Robinson RB2
ATL vs CHI · 52.0
—ATLvs CHI52.014.4—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 8.1–22.7.
3Kyren Williams RB3
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.513.3—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 7.2–21.3.
4Jaylen Warren RB4
PIT @ TB · 39.5
—PIT@ TB39.513.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 7.3–21.0.
5James Cook RB5
BUF @ LV · 53.5
—BUF@ LV53.512.7—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 6.7–20.6.
6Javonte Williams RB6
DAL @ GB · 53.0
—DAL@ GB53.012.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 6.3–20.5.
7Jonathan Taylor RB7
IND vs TEN · 44.5
—INDvs TEN44.512.4—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 6.3–20.1.
8Puka Nacua WR1
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.511.7—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 5.3–20.7.
9Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR2
SEA @ DEN
—SEA@ DEN (Thu)final11.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 5.1–20.5.
10Christian McCaffrey RB8
SF vs WAS · 51.5
—SFvs WAS (Mon)51.511.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 5.6–19.3.
11Christian Watson WR3
GB vs DAL · 53.0
—GBvs DAL53.010.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 4.4–18.9.
12D'Andre Swift RB9
CHI @ ATL · 52.0
—CHI@ ATL52.010.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 5.4–17.3.
13Bucky Irving RB10
TB vs PIT · 39.5
—TBvs PIT39.510.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 5.6–17.1.
Tier 2
14Rhamondre Stevenson RB11
NE vs NYJ · 43.5
—NEvs NYJ43.59.3—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 4.2–16.0.
15Ashton Jeanty RB12
LV vs BUF · 53.5
—LVvs BUF53.59.3—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 4.9–15.9.
16Zay Flowers WR4
BAL @ CLE · 40.5
—BAL@ CLE40.59.1—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 4.1–16.6.
17Davante Adams WR5
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.58.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 3.5–16.5.
18Bhayshul Tuten RB13
JAX vs HOU · 42.5
—JAXvs HOU42.58.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 4.5–15.1.
19CeeDee Lamb WR6
DAL @ GB · 53.0
—DAL@ GB53.08.7—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 3.8–15.6.
20Brock Bowers TE1
LV vs BUF · 53.5
—LVvs BUF53.58.4—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 3.1–15.7.
21Parker Washington WR7
JAX vs HOU · 42.5
—JAXvs HOU42.58.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 3.3–15.3.
22Drake London WR8
ATL vs CHI · 52.0
—ATLvs CHI52.08.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 4.1–15.4.
23Emanuel Wilson RB14
SEA @ DEN
—SEA@ DEN (Thu)final8.1—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 3.4–14.7.
24Chris Olave WR9
NO @ NYG · 46.0
—NO@ NYG46.07.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 3.8–15.2.
Showing 24 of 96 · tiers 2+ below

Key changes since the previous publish

First published version of this board — no changes to show yet.

The engine's read on Week 6
Engine byline · no human author · Week 5 FLEX accuracy: MAE 6.4, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Tiers 1–2 in depth

Derrick HenryRB1 · BAL @ CLE
Median 14.5 · 20–80 range 7.8–22.9 · game total 40.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 7.8–22.9.
Bijan RobinsonRB2 · ATL vs CHI
Median 14.4 · 20–80 range 8.2–22.7 · game total 52.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 8.1–22.7.
Kyren WilliamsRB3 · LA vs ARI
Median 13.3 · 20–80 range 7.2–21.3 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 7.2–21.3.
Jaylen WarrenRB4 · PIT @ TB
Median 13.2 · 20–80 range 7.3–21.0 · game total 39.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 7.3–21.0.
James CookRB5 · BUF @ LV
Median 12.7 · 20–80 range 6.7–20.6 · game total 53.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 6.7–20.6.
Javonte WilliamsRB6 · DAL @ GB
Median 12.5 · 20–80 range 6.3–20.5 · game total 53.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 6.3–20.5.

Common questions about Week 6 FLEX rankings

Who is the best flex to start in Week 6 Standard?

Derrick Henry, our FLEX1 with a 14.5-point median; Bijan Robinson is FLEX2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09
Market2026-w06-2026-10-16-17
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 5 FLEX accuracyMAE 6.4 · top-12 hit 4/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 13, 5:32 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w6-20261013T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
VersionsRankings v0850ba1e· projections ens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09· lines 2026-w06-2026-10-16-17· injuries 2026-10-15T22:45:25Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version