SEA D/ST is our DST1 for Week 6 in Standard, ahead of BAL D/ST and CAR D/ST. This is the first published version of this board.
Rankings table
| Rank | Player | Status | Team | Opp | Total | Proj | Range | Chg | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 | ||||||||||
| 1 | SEA D/ST SEA @ DEN | — | SEA | @ DEN (Thu) | final | 7.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. | |
| 2 | BAL D/ST BAL @ CLE · 40.0 | — | BAL | @ CLE | 40.0 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 3 | CAR D/ST CAR @ PHI · 39.0 | — | CAR | @ PHI | 39.0 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 4 | CLE D/ST CLE vs BAL · 40.0 | — | CLE | vs BAL | 40.0 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 5 | DEN D/ST DEN vs SEA | — | DEN | vs SEA (Thu) | final | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SEA · 20–80 range 2.0–12.0. | |
| 6 | HOU D/ST HOU @ JAX · 42.5 | — | HOU | @ JAX | 42.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 7 | JAX D/ST JAX vs HOU · 42.5 | — | JAX | vs HOU | 42.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 8 | KC D/ST KC vs LAC · 41.5 | — | KC | vs LAC | 41.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs LAC · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 9 | LA D/ST LA vs ARI · 51.5 | — | LA | vs ARI | 51.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 10 | NE D/ST NE vs NYJ · 43.5 | — | NE | vs NYJ | 43.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 3.0–12.0. | |
| 11 | PIT D/ST PIT @ TB · 39.5 | — | PIT | @ TB | 39.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 2.0–12.0. | |
| 12 | SF D/ST SF vs WAS · 51.5 | — | SF | vs WAS (Mon) | 51.5 | 6.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0. | |
| 13 | ATL D/ST ATL vs CHI · 52.0 | — | ATL | vs CHI | 52.0 | 5.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 14 | CHI D/ST CHI @ ATL · 52.0 | — | CHI | @ ATL | 52.0 | 5.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 15 | GB D/ST GB vs DAL · 53.0 | — | GB | vs DAL | 53.0 | 5.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 16 | IND D/ST IND vs TEN · 44.5 | — | IND | vs TEN | 44.5 | 5.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 17 | LAC D/ST LAC @ KC · 41.5 | — | LAC | @ KC | 41.5 | 5.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ KC · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 18 | NO D/ST NO @ NYG · 46.0 | — | NO | @ NYG | 46.0 | 5.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 19 | NYG D/ST NYG vs NO · 46.0 | — | NYG | vs NO | 46.0 | 5.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NO · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 20 | NYJ D/ST NYJ @ NE · 43.5 | — | NYJ | @ NE | 43.5 | 5.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 21 | PHI D/ST PHI vs CAR · 39.0 | — | PHI | vs CAR | 39.0 | 5.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CAR · 20–80 range 2.0–10.0. | |
| 22 | TB D/ST TB vs PIT · 39.5 | — | TB | vs PIT | 39.5 | 5.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 1.0–10.0. | |
| 23 | BUF D/ST BUF @ LV · 53.5 | — | BUF | @ LV | 53.5 | 4.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 1.0–9.0. | |
| 24 | LV D/ST LV vs BUF · 53.5 | — | LV | vs BUF | 53.5 | 4.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 0.0–9.0. | |
| 25 | TEN D/ST TEN @ IND · 44.5 | — | TEN | @ IND | 44.5 | 4.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ IND · 20–80 range 1.0–8.0. | |
| 26 | WAS D/ST WAS @ SF · 51.5 | — | WAS | @ SF (Mon) | 51.5 | 4.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 0.0–8.0. | |
| 27 | ARI D/ST ARI @ LA · 51.5 | — | ARI | @ LA | 51.5 | 3.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range -1.0–7.0. | |
| 28 | DAL D/ST DAL @ GB · 53.0 | — | DAL | @ GB | 53.0 | 3.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 0.0–7.0. | |
Showing 24 of 28 · tiers 1+ below
Key changes since the previous publish
First published version of this board — no changes to show yet.
The engine's read on Week 6
Engine byline · no human author · Week 5 DST accuracy: MAE 4.1, top-12 hit 5/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Tiers 1–2 in depth
SEA D/STDST1 · SEA @ DEN
Median 7.0 · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 3.0–13.0.
BAL D/STDST2 · BAL @ CLE
Median 6.0 · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0 · game total 40.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0.
CAR D/STDST3 · CAR @ PHI
Median 6.0 · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0 · game total 39.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ PHI · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0.
CLE D/STDST4 · CLE vs BAL
Median 6.0 · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0 · game total 40.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0.
DEN D/STDST5 · DEN vs SEA
Median 6.0 · 20–80 range 2.0–12.0. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SEA · 20–80 range 2.0–12.0.
HOU D/STDST6 · HOU @ JAX
Median 6.0 · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0 · game total 42.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 2.0–11.0.
Common questions about Week 6 DST rankings
Who is the best defense to start in Week 6 Standard?
SEA D/ST, our DST1 with a 7.0-point median; BAL D/ST is DST2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09
Market2026-w06-2026-10-16-19
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 5 DST accuracyMAE 4.1 · top-12 hit 5/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 13, 5:32 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w6-20261013T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings v0850ba1e· projections ens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09· lines 2026-w06-2026-10-16-19· injuries 2026-10-15T22:45:25Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version