Dynasty Rankings — WR, Standard

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2030, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Dynasty value

value = Σ_{t over 2026–2030} VORP(t) × survival(t) × discount^t

VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).

Stated constants

Discount: 0.85 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon: 5 years (2026–2030)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves: by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94

Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by balanced dynasty value

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the balanced values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Standard draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#	Player	Pos	Age	2026 VORP	5-yr value · 0.85	Contender	Rebuild	Years of value left
Tier 1216.5–226.1
1	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR	24.5	67.3 #10	226.1	146.9	261.5	5 yrs
2	Puka NacuaLA	WR	25.3	72.1 #9	216.5	149.0	243.1	5 yrs
Tier 2163.4–163.4
3	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR	26.5	65.7 #11	163.4	124.3	174.1	5 yrs
Tier 3137.4–137.4
4	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR	26.9	60.1 #13	137.4	109.8	145.2	5 yrs
Tier 417.3–90.6
5	George PickensDAL	WR	25.5	36.0 #27	90.6	70.6	96.2	5 yrs
6	Drake LondonATL	WR	25.1	31.7 #29	85.7	64.8	91.5	5 yrs
7	Carnell TateTENrookie	WR	21.6	3.2 #78	74.0	28.2	102.7	5 yrs
8	Malik NabersNYG	WR	23.1	12.4 #60	66.3	36.9	78.0	5 yrs
9	Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR	23.4	13.6 #56	63.2	37.5	71.8	5 yrs
10	CeeDee LambDAL	WR	27.4	30.1 #31	50.8	46.5	52.2	3 yrs
11	Nico CollinsHOU	WR	27.5	30.1 #32	50.0	45.9	51.4	3 yrs
12	Chris OlaveNO	WR	26.2	23.4 #39	43.8	39.3	45.3	3 yrs
13	Zay FlowersBAL	WR	26.0	20.0 #46	37.2	33.5	38.5	3 yrs
14	Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	27.2	21.1 #44	30.8	29.1	31.4	3 yrs
15	A.J. BrownNE	WR	29.2	19.5 #47	23.9	23.1	24.1	2 yrs
16	Jameson WilliamsDET	WR	25.4	10.1 #63	18.3	16.7	18.9	3 yrs
17	Emeka EgbukaTB	WR	23.9	3.9 #76	17.8	12.9	19.2	4 yrs
18	Tee HigginsCIN	WR	27.6	14.2 #55	17.6	17.0	17.8	2 yrs
19	Rashee RiceKC	WR	26.4	12.2 #61	17.3	16.4	17.6	2 yrs
Tier 512.7–12.7
20	Davante AdamsLA	WR	33.7	12.7 #58	12.7	12.7	12.7	1 yr
Tier 610.2–10.6
21	Ladd McConkeyLAC	WR	24.8	4.9 #73	10.6	9.4	11.0	3 yrs
22	Brian Thomas Jr.JAX	WR	23.9	1.5 #85	10.2	7.6	11.0	4 yrs
Tier 7-0.9–4.6
23	DK MetcalfPIT	WR	28.7	4.6 #74	4.6	4.6	4.6	1 yr
24	Garrett WilsonNYJ	WR	26.1	3.8 #77	3.8	3.8	3.8	1 yr
25	Courtland SuttonDEN	WR	30.9	2.4 #79	2.4	2.4	2.4	1 yr
26	DeVonta SmithPHI	WR	27.8	2.2 #82	2.2	2.2	2.2	1 yr
27	Alec PierceIND	WR	26.3	1.6 #84	1.6	1.6	1.6	1 yr
28	Jaylen WaddleDEN	WR	27.8	0.5 #87	0.5	0.5	0.5	1 yr
29	Quentin JohnstonLAC	WR	25.0	0.0 #89	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
30	Michael WilsonARI	WR	26.5	-0.9 #93	-0.9	-0.9	-0.9	0 yrs
Tier 8-8.7–-3.0
31	Rome OdunzeCHI	WR	24.2	-3.0 #98	-3.0	-3.0	-3.0	0 yrs
32	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	WR	25.7	-3.8 #99	-3.8	-3.8	-3.8	0 yrs
33	Deebo Samuel Sr.SF	WR	30.6	-4.3 #100	-4.3	-4.3	-4.3	0 yrs
34	Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI	WR	24.1	-5.6 #104	-5.6	-5.6	-5.6	0 yrs
35	Jordan AddisonMIN	WR	24.6	-7.0 #110	-7.0	-7.0	-7.0	0 yrs
36	Christian WatsonGB	WR	27.3	-7.2 #111	-7.2	-7.2	-7.2	0 yrs
37	Mike EvansSF	WR	33.0	-8.7 #113	-8.7	-8.7	-8.7	0 yrs
Tier 9-21.0–-12.6
38	Jakobi MeyersJAX	WR	29.8	-12.6 #123	-12.6	-12.6	-12.6	0 yrs
39	Terry McLaurinWAS	WR	31.0	-14.0 #128	-14.0	-14.0	-14.0	0 yrs
40	Michael PittmanPIT	WR	28.9	-14.9 #131	-14.9	-14.9	-14.9	0 yrs
41	KC ConcepcionCLErookie	WR	21.9	-17.8 #138	-15.8	-17.8	-15.4	2 yrs
42	Parker WashingtonJAX	WR	24.4	-16.1 #132	-16.1	-16.1	-16.1	0 yrs
43	DJ MooreBUF	WR	29.4	-17.3 #135	-17.3	-17.3	-17.3	0 yrs
44	Makai LemonPHIrookie	WR	22.2	-17.3 #136	-17.3	-17.3	-17.3	0 yrs
45	Omar Cooper Jr.NYJrookie	WR	22.7	-17.6 #137	-17.6	-17.6	-17.6	0 yrs
46	Khalil ShakirBUF	WR	26.6	-18.9 #141	-18.9	-18.9	-18.9	0 yrs
47	Jayden ReedGB	WR	26.3	-19.9 #143	-19.9	-19.9	-19.9	0 yrs
48	Romeo DoubsNE	WR	26.4	-19.9 #144	-19.9	-19.9	-19.9	0 yrs
49	Jauan JenningsMIN	WR	29.1	-20.1 #145	-20.1	-20.1	-20.1	0 yrs
50	Tre TuckerLV	WR	25.5	-21.0 #148	-21.0	-21.0	-21.0	0 yrs
Tier 10-25.9–-24.3
51	Stefon DiggsWAS	WR	32.8	-24.3 #160	-24.3	-24.3	-24.3	0 yrs
52	Keenan AllenIND	WR	34.3	-24.7 #161	-24.7	-24.7	-24.7	0 yrs
53	Luther Burden IIICHI	WR	22.7	-25.5 #164	-25.5	-25.5	-25.5	0 yrs
54	Troy FranklinDEN	WR	23.6	-25.9 #166	-25.9	-25.9	-25.9	0 yrs
Tier 11-30.7–-28.5
55	Xavier WorthyKC	WR	23.3	-28.5 #175	-28.5	-28.5	-28.5	0 yrs
56	Kayshon BoutteHOU	WR	24.3	-28.9 #177	-28.9	-28.9	-28.9	0 yrs
57	Keon ColemanBUF	WR	23.3	-28.9 #178	-28.9	-28.9	-28.9	0 yrs
58	Josh DownsIND	WR	25.1	-29.9 #180	-29.9	-29.9	-29.9	0 yrs
59	Jerry JeudyCLE	WR	27.4	-30.7 #186	-30.7	-30.7	-30.7	0 yrs
Tier 12-43.0–-34.9
60	De'Zhaun StriblingSFrookie	WR	23.7	-34.9 #197	-34.9	-34.9	-34.9	0 yrs
61	Elic AyomanorTEN	WR	23.2	-35.0 #198	-35.0	-35.0	-35.0	0 yrs
62	Denzel BostonCLErookie	WR	22.7	-35.2 #200	-35.2	-35.2	-35.2	0 yrs
63	Germie BernardPITrookie	WR	22.7	-35.6 #203	-35.6	-35.6	-35.6	0 yrs
64	Jalen CokerCAR	WR	24.8	-37.3 #206	-37.3	-37.3	-37.3	0 yrs
65	Rashid ShaheedSEA	WR	28.0	-39.2 #211	-39.2	-39.2	-39.2	0 yrs
66	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	WR	30.5	-41.0 #222	-41.0	-41.0	-41.0	0 yrs
67	Jalen McMillanTB	WR	24.7	-41.6 #226	-41.6	-41.6	-41.6	0 yrs
68	Travis HunterJAX	WR	23.3	-42.9 #232	-42.9	-42.9	-42.9	0 yrs
69	Calvin RidleyTEN	WR	31.7	-43.0 #233	-43.0	-43.0	-43.0	0 yrs
Tier 13-45.7–-45.4
70	Cooper KuppSEA	WR	33.2	-45.4 #240	-45.4	-45.4	-45.4	0 yrs
71	Chimere DikeTEN	WR	24.7	-45.7 #245	-45.7	-45.7	-45.7	0 yrs
Tier 14-59.4–-48.1
72	Tez JohnsonTB	WR	24.3	-48.1 #259	-48.1	-48.1	-48.1	0 yrs
73	Tory HortonSEA	WR	23.8	-48.3 #261	-48.3	-48.3	-48.3	0 yrs
74	Jalen NailorLV	WR	27.5	-49.5 #266	-49.5	-49.5	-49.5	0 yrs
75	Mack HollinsNE	WR	33.0	-49.8 #269	-49.8	-49.8	-49.8	0 yrs
76	Darnell MooneyNYG	WR	28.8	-50.0 #271	-50.0	-50.0	-50.0	0 yrs
77	Dontayvion WicksPHI	WR	25.2	-50.8 #277	-50.8	-50.8	-50.8	0 yrs
78	Andrei IosivasCIN	WR	26.9	-51.5 #284	-51.5	-51.5	-51.5	0 yrs
79	Xavier LegetteCAR	WR	25.6	-51.5 #285	-51.5	-51.5	-51.5	0 yrs
80	Marvin Mims Jr.DEN	WR	24.5	-51.6 #286	-51.6	-51.6	-51.6	0 yrs
81	Marquise BrownPHI	WR	29.2	-52.4 #291	-52.4	-52.4	-52.4	0 yrs
82	Ryan FlournoyDAL	WR	26.8	-52.6 #293	-52.6	-52.6	-52.6	0 yrs
83	DeMario DouglasNE	WR	25.7	-52.8 #294	-52.8	-52.8	-52.8	0 yrs
84	Devaughn VeleNO	WR	28.7	-53.4 #298	-53.4	-53.4	-53.4	0 yrs
85	Ted Hurst IIITBrookie	WR	22.2	-53.5 #300	-53.5	-53.5	-53.5	0 yrs
86	Antonio WilliamsWASrookie	WR	22.1	-54.3 #309	-54.3	-54.3	-54.3	0 yrs
87	Chris BellMIArookie	WR	22.2	-54.4 #311	-54.4	-54.4	-54.4	0 yrs
88	Ja'Kobi LaneBALrookie	WR	22.1	-54.8 #317	-54.8	-54.8	-54.8	0 yrs
89	Kendrick BourneARI	WR	31.1	-55.5 #322	-55.5	-55.5	-55.5	0 yrs
90	Caleb DouglasMIArookie	WR	23.0	-55.9 #325	-55.9	-55.9	-55.9	0 yrs
91	Brenen ThompsonLACrookie	WR	23.1	-56.0 #326	-56.0	-56.0	-56.0	0 yrs
92	Pat BryantDEN	WR	23.7	-56.0 #327	-56.0	-56.0	-56.0	0 yrs
93	Zachariah BranchATLrookie	WR	22.4	-56.5 #330	-56.5	-56.5	-56.5	0 yrs
94	Zavion ThomasCHIrookie	WR	22.5	-56.7 #332	-56.7	-56.7	-56.7	0 yrs
95	Olamide ZaccheausATL	WR	29.1	-56.8 #334	-56.8	-56.8	-56.8	0 yrs
96	Malachi FieldsNYGrookie	WR	23.0	-56.8 #335	-56.8	-56.8	-56.8	0 yrs
97	Malik WashingtonMIA	WR	25.9	-57.2 #338	-57.2	-57.2	-57.2	0 yrs
98	Adonai MitchellNYJ	WR	23.9	-57.9 #342	-57.9	-57.9	-57.9	0 yrs
99	Matthew GoldenGB	WR	23.1	-57.9 #343	-57.9	-57.9	-57.9	0 yrs
100	Rashod BatemanBAL	WR	26.8	-58.2 #344	-58.2	-58.2	-58.2	0 yrs
101	Isaac TeSlaaDET	WR	24.5	-59.4 #350	-59.4	-59.4	-59.4	0 yrs
Tier 15-81.5–-62.8
102	Josh PalmerBUF	WR	26.9	-62.8 #365	-62.8	-62.8	-62.8	0 yrs
103	Tyquan ThorntonKC	WR	26.1	-63.0 #369	-63.0	-63.0	-63.0	0 yrs
104	KaVontae TurpinDAL	WR	30.1	-63.0 #370	-63.0	-63.0	-63.0	0 yrs
105	Isaiah BondCLE	WR	22.5	-64.0 #377	-64.0	-64.0	-64.0	0 yrs
106	Kevin Austin Jr.NO	WR	26.4	-65.0 #382	-65.0	-65.0	-65.0	0 yrs
107	Xavier HutchinsonHOU	WR	26.3	-65.1 #383	-65.1	-65.1	-65.1	0 yrs
108	Demarcus RobinsonSF	WR	31.9	-66.5 #391	-66.5	-66.5	-66.5	0 yrs
109	John Metchie IIICAR	WR	26.1	-66.6 #392	-66.6	-66.6	-66.6	0 yrs
110	Tre HarrisLAC	WR	24.5	-66.9 #393	-66.9	-66.9	-66.9	0 yrs
111	Jaylin NoelHOU	WR	24.0	-67.1 #396	-67.1	-67.1	-67.1	0 yrs
112	Greg DortchBUF	WR	28.3	-67.9 #402	-67.9	-67.9	-67.9	0 yrs
113	Jalen TolbertMIA	WR	27.5	-68.2 #406	-68.2	-68.2	-68.2	0 yrs
114	Jordyn TysonNOrookie	WR	22.1	-68.3 #409	-68.3	-68.3	-68.3	0 yrs
115	Luke McCaffreyWAS	WR	25.4	-69.2 #417	-69.2	-69.2	-69.2	0 yrs
116	Tutu AtwellLA	WR	26.9	-69.8 #421	-69.8	-69.8	-69.8	0 yrs
117	Kyle WilliamsNE	WR	23.8	-70.0 #423	-70.0	-70.0	-70.0	0 yrs
118	Dyami BrownWAS	WR	26.8	-71.5 #438	-71.5	-71.5	-71.5	0 yrs
119	Jahdae WalkerCHI	WR	24.2	-72.5 #443	-72.5	-72.5	-72.5	0 yrs
120	Reggie VirgilARIrookie	WR	22.3	-73.3 #454	-73.3	-73.3	-73.3	0 yrs
121	Roman WilsonPIT	WR	25.2	-73.4 #456	-73.4	-73.4	-73.4	0 yrs
122	Jahan DotsonATL	WR	26.4	-73.8 #458	-73.8	-73.8	-73.8	0 yrs
123	Barion BrownNOrookie	WR	22.7	-73.9 #459	-73.9	-73.9	-73.9	0 yrs
124	Josh CameronJAXrookie	WR	23.5	-74.0 #461	-74.0	-74.0	-74.0	0 yrs
125	Colbie YoungCINrookie	WR	24.1	-74.0 #462	-74.0	-74.0	-74.0	0 yrs
126	Devontez WalkerBAL	WR	25.2	-74.3 #463	-74.3	-74.3	-74.3	0 yrs
127	Malik BensonLVrookie	WR	23.9	-74.3 #464	-74.3	-74.3	-74.3	0 yrs
128	Elijah SarrattBALrookie	WR	23.3	-74.3 #465	-74.3	-74.3	-74.3	0 yrs
129	Kevin Coleman Jr.MIArookie	WR	23.0	-74.4 #466	-74.4	-74.4	-74.4	0 yrs
130	Bryce LanceNOrookie	WR	24.0	-74.5 #467	-74.5	-74.5	-74.5	0 yrs
131	Deion BurksINDrookie	WR	23.6	-74.8 #470	-74.8	-74.8	-74.8	0 yrs
132	Elijah MoorePHI	WR	26.4	-74.8 #471	-74.8	-74.8	-74.8	0 yrs
133	Cyrus AllenKCrookie	WR	23.6	-75.0 #473	-75.0	-75.0	-75.0	0 yrs
134	Kaden WetjenPITrookie	WR	24.5	-75.0 #474	-75.0	-75.0	-75.0	0 yrs
135	Skyler BellBUFrookie	WR	24.2	-75.1 #475	-75.1	-75.1	-75.1	0 yrs
136	C.J. WilliamsJAXrookie	WR	23.9	-75.3 #477	-75.3	-75.3	-75.3	0 yrs
137	CJ DanielsLArookie	WR	24.7	-75.7 #480	-75.7	-75.7	-75.7	0 yrs
138	Kalif RaymondCHI	WR	32.1	-75.9 #483	-75.9	-75.9	-75.9	0 yrs
139	Jack BechLV	WR	23.7	-76.1 #484	-76.1	-76.1	-76.1	0 yrs
140	Tank DellHOU	WR	26.8	-76.9 #487	-76.9	-76.9	-76.9	0 yrs
141	Ricky PearsallSF	WR	26.0	-77.3 #488	-77.3	-77.3	-77.3	0 yrs
142	Treylon BurksWAS	WR	26.4	-77.5 #489	-77.5	-77.5	-77.5	0 yrs
143	Jaylin LaneWAS	WR	24.3	-77.9 #492	-77.9	-77.9	-77.9	0 yrs
144	Jimmy Horn Jr.CAR	WR	24.0	-78.4 #493	-78.4	-78.4	-78.4	0 yrs
145	Jayden HigginsHOU	WR	23.7	-79.1 #495	-79.1	-79.1	-79.1	0 yrs
146	Chris MooreBAL	WR	33.2	-79.5 #498	-79.5	-79.5	-79.5	0 yrs
147	Konata MumpfieldLA	WR	23.9	-79.6 #499	-79.6	-79.6	-79.6	0 yrs
148	Darius CooperPHI	WR	24.8	-79.9 #501	-79.9	-79.9	-79.9	0 yrs
149	Camden BrownDALrookie	WR	22.3	-81.4 #507	-81.4	-81.4	-81.4	0 yrs
150	Tay MartinDET	WR	28.7	-81.5 #509	-81.5	-81.5	-81.5	0 yrs

Showing 24 of 150 · the top 150 of 220 with a value are in the page

Read itThe 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · standard · 12 · balanced 0.85×5· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version