Dynasty Rankings — WR, Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2030, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Dynasty value

value = Σ_{t over 2026–2030} VORP(t) × survival(t) × discount^t

VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).

Stated constants

Discount: 0.85 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon: 5 years (2026–2030)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves: by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94

Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by balanced dynasty value

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the balanced values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Half-PPR draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#	Player	Pos	Age	2026 VORP	5-yr value · 0.85	Contender	Rebuild	Years of value left
Tier 1307.9–316.7
1	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR	24.5	93.7 #8	316.7	204.4	368.8	5 yrs
2	Puka NacuaLA	WR	25.3	101.0 #4	307.9	209.4	349.5	5 yrs
Tier 2250.0–250.0
3	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR	26.5	96.0 #7	250.0	184.4	271.0	5 yrs
Tier 3210.7–210.7
4	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR	26.9	87.0 #9	210.7	161.9	224.1	5 yrs
Tier 4116.6–137.6
5	Drake LondonATL	WR	25.1	48.3 #23	137.6	99.7	147.9	5 yrs
6	George PickensDAL	WR	25.5	48.8 #21	127.4	96.7	135.8	5 yrs
7	Malik NabersNYG	WR	23.1	25.4 #41	119.8	68.1	143.6	5 yrs
8	Carnell TateTENrookie	WR	21.6	10.2 #68	116.6	49.2	158.8	5 yrs
Tier 586.6–97.1
9	Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR	23.4	21.9 #49	97.1	57.7	112.3	5 yrs
10	CeeDee LambDAL	WR	27.4	48.4 #22	90.0	80.3	93.3	4 yrs
11	Chris OlaveNO	WR	26.2	40.7 #28	86.6	73.3	90.7	4 yrs
Tier 662.7–71.3
12	Nico CollinsHOU	WR	27.5	41.0 #27	71.3	64.9	73.6	3 yrs
13	Zay FlowersBAL	WR	26.0	33.9 #31	70.4	60.8	73.5	4 yrs
14	Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	27.2	36.3 #29	62.7	57.1	64.7	3 yrs
Tier 742.7–44.9
15	Rashee RiceKC	WR	26.4	25.7 #39	44.9	40.8	46.3	3 yrs
16	A.J. BrownNE	WR	29.2	31.6 #34	42.7	40.8	43.4	2 yrs
Tier 835.0–35.1
17	Ladd McConkeyLAC	WR	24.8	14.4 #58	35.1	29.6	36.8	4 yrs
18	Emeka EgbukaTB	WR	23.9	9.0 #71	35.0	24.9	37.8	4 yrs
Tier 925.2–29.8
19	Brian Thomas Jr.JAX	WR	23.9	7.3 #76	29.8	21.2	32.1	4 yrs
20	Garrett WilsonNYJ	WR	26.1	17.1 #55	26.9	25.1	27.6	3 yrs
21	Jameson WilliamsDET	WR	25.4	13.9 #60	26.3	23.7	27.3	3 yrs
22	Tee HigginsCIN	WR	27.6	19.4 #52	25.2	24.2	25.6	2 yrs
Tier 1019.3–19.7
23	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	WR	25.7	12.4 #62	19.7	18.4	20.1	3 yrs
24	Davante AdamsLA	WR	33.7	19.3 #53	19.3	19.3	19.3	1 yr
Tier 1111.5–11.5
25	DeVonta SmithPHI	WR	27.8	11.5 #64	11.5	11.5	11.5	1 yr
Tier 125.2–9.1
26	DK MetcalfPIT	WR	28.7	9.1 #70	9.1	9.1	9.1	1 yr
27	Jaylen WaddleDEN	WR	27.8	8.4 #72	8.4	8.4	8.4	1 yr
28	Courtland SuttonDEN	WR	30.9	8.2 #73	8.2	8.2	8.2	1 yr
29	Michael WilsonARI	WR	26.5	6.9 #78	6.9	6.9	6.9	1 yr
30	Quentin JohnstonLAC	WR	25.0	3.6 #81	6.2	5.7	6.3	2 yrs
31	Rome OdunzeCHI	WR	24.2	0.6 #87	5.2	4.1	5.5	3 yrs
Tier 132.5–2.5
32	Deebo Samuel Sr.SF	WR	30.6	2.5 #83	2.5	2.5	2.5	1 yr
Tier 14-2.3–0.0
33	Alec PierceIND	WR	26.3	0.0 #89	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
34	KC ConcepcionCLErookie	WR	21.9	-15.3 #130	-0.9	-12.8	4.6	3 yrs
35	Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI	WR	24.1	-2.8 #97	-2.3	-2.4	-2.2	1 yr
Tier 15-9.3–-4.6
36	Jakobi MeyersJAX	WR	29.8	-4.6 #100	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	0 yrs
37	Jordan AddisonMIN	WR	24.6	-5.3 #103	-5.3	-5.3	-5.3	0 yrs
38	Michael PittmanPIT	WR	28.9	-6.0 #106	-6.0	-6.0	-6.0	0 yrs
39	Mike EvansSF	WR	33.0	-7.1 #108	-7.1	-7.1	-7.1	0 yrs
40	Makai LemonPHIrookie	WR	22.2	-15.0 #128	-7.5	-13.7	-6.0	3 yrs
41	Christian WatsonGB	WR	27.3	-9.3 #112	-9.3	-9.3	-9.3	0 yrs
Tier 16-11.7–-11.5
42	Khalil ShakirBUF	WR	26.6	-11.5 #116	-11.5	-11.5	-11.5	0 yrs
43	Terry McLaurinWAS	WR	31.0	-11.7 #118	-11.7	-11.7	-11.7	0 yrs
Tier 17-20.5–-13.9
44	Parker WashingtonJAX	WR	24.4	-13.9 #126	-13.9	-13.9	-13.9	0 yrs
45	Omar Cooper Jr.NYJrookie	WR	22.7	-15.7 #132	-15.7	-15.7	-15.7	0 yrs
46	DJ MooreBUF	WR	29.4	-16.5 #133	-16.5	-16.5	-16.5	0 yrs
47	Keenan AllenIND	WR	34.3	-18.2 #137	-18.2	-18.2	-18.2	0 yrs
48	Romeo DoubsNE	WR	26.4	-19.3 #140	-19.3	-19.3	-19.3	0 yrs
49	Stefon DiggsWAS	WR	32.8	-19.4 #142	-19.4	-19.4	-19.4	0 yrs
50	Jauan JenningsMIN	WR	29.1	-19.8 #143	-19.8	-19.8	-19.8	0 yrs
51	Jayden ReedGB	WR	26.3	-19.8 #144	-19.8	-19.8	-19.8	0 yrs
52	Tre TuckerLV	WR	25.5	-20.5 #145	-20.5	-20.5	-20.5	0 yrs
Tier 18-25.9–-23.7
53	Troy FranklinDEN	WR	23.6	-23.7 #152	-23.7	-23.7	-23.7	0 yrs
54	Luther Burden IIICHI	WR	22.7	-25.0 #155	-25.0	-25.0	-25.0	0 yrs
55	Josh DownsIND	WR	25.1	-25.9 #157	-25.9	-25.9	-25.9	0 yrs
Tier 19-30.9–-28.4
56	Xavier WorthyKC	WR	23.3	-28.4 #166	-28.4	-28.4	-28.4	0 yrs
57	Jerry JeudyCLE	WR	27.4	-29.6 #170	-29.6	-29.6	-29.6	0 yrs
58	Keon ColemanBUF	WR	23.3	-30.9 #174	-30.9	-30.9	-30.9	0 yrs
Tier 20-34.2–-34.2
59	Kayshon BoutteHOU	WR	24.3	-34.2 #184	-34.2	-34.2	-34.2	0 yrs
Tier 21-40.3–-37.9
60	Elic AyomanorTEN	WR	23.2	-37.9 #191	-37.9	-37.9	-37.9	0 yrs
61	De'Zhaun StriblingSFrookie	WR	23.7	-38.6 #195	-38.6	-38.6	-38.6	0 yrs
62	Denzel BostonCLErookie	WR	22.7	-38.9 #196	-38.9	-38.9	-38.9	0 yrs
63	Germie BernardPITrookie	WR	22.7	-39.5 #199	-39.5	-39.5	-39.5	0 yrs
64	Jalen CokerCAR	WR	24.8	-40.3 #203	-40.3	-40.3	-40.3	0 yrs
Tier 22-43.3–-42.5
65	Chris Godwin Jr.TB	WR	30.5	-42.5 #207	-42.5	-42.5	-42.5	0 yrs
66	Rashid ShaheedSEA	WR	28.0	-43.0 #209	-43.0	-43.0	-43.0	0 yrs
67	Travis HunterJAX	WR	23.3	-43.3 #210	-43.3	-43.3	-43.3	0 yrs
Tier 23-49.2–-47.2
68	Jalen McMillanTB	WR	24.7	-47.2 #223	-47.2	-47.2	-47.2	0 yrs
69	Chimere DikeTEN	WR	24.7	-47.9 #225	-47.9	-47.9	-47.9	0 yrs
70	Calvin RidleyTEN	WR	31.7	-49.0 #231	-49.0	-49.0	-49.0	0 yrs
71	Cooper KuppSEA	WR	33.2	-49.2 #232	-49.2	-49.2	-49.2	0 yrs
Tier 24-59.9–-54.9
72	Mack HollinsNE	WR	33.0	-54.9 #255	-54.9	-54.9	-54.9	0 yrs
73	Darnell MooneyNYG	WR	28.8	-56.5 #262	-56.5	-56.5	-56.5	0 yrs
74	Xavier LegetteCAR	WR	25.6	-56.7 #264	-56.7	-56.7	-56.7	0 yrs
75	Tez JohnsonTB	WR	24.3	-56.8 #265	-56.8	-56.8	-56.8	0 yrs
76	Dontayvion WicksPHI	WR	25.2	-57.4 #268	-57.4	-57.4	-57.4	0 yrs
77	Marvin Mims Jr.DEN	WR	24.5	-58.1 #269	-58.1	-58.1	-58.1	0 yrs
78	Tory HortonSEA	WR	23.8	-59.1 #273	-59.1	-59.1	-59.1	0 yrs
79	DeMario DouglasNE	WR	25.7	-59.1 #274	-59.1	-59.1	-59.1	0 yrs
80	Marquise BrownPHI	WR	29.2	-59.3 #276	-59.3	-59.3	-59.3	0 yrs
81	Jalen NailorLV	WR	27.5	-59.6 #277	-59.6	-59.6	-59.6	0 yrs
82	Devaughn VeleNO	WR	28.7	-59.6 #279	-59.6	-59.6	-59.6	0 yrs
83	Ryan FlournoyDAL	WR	26.8	-59.8 #281	-59.8	-59.8	-59.8	0 yrs
84	Andrei IosivasCIN	WR	26.9	-59.9 #283	-59.9	-59.9	-59.9	0 yrs
Tier 25-66.6–-62.1
85	Ted Hurst IIITBrookie	WR	22.2	-62.1 #296	-62.1	-62.1	-62.1	0 yrs
86	Kendrick BourneARI	WR	31.1	-62.3 #297	-62.3	-62.3	-62.3	0 yrs
87	Malik WashingtonMIA	WR	25.9	-62.3 #298	-62.3	-62.3	-62.3	0 yrs
88	Pat BryantDEN	WR	23.7	-62.6 #299	-62.6	-62.6	-62.6	0 yrs
89	Olamide ZaccheausATL	WR	29.1	-62.8 #301	-62.8	-62.8	-62.8	0 yrs
90	Antonio WilliamsWASrookie	WR	22.1	-63.1 #303	-63.1	-63.1	-63.1	0 yrs
91	Chris BellMIArookie	WR	22.2	-63.3 #305	-63.3	-63.3	-63.3	0 yrs
92	Ja'Kobi LaneBALrookie	WR	22.1	-63.7 #309	-63.7	-63.7	-63.7	0 yrs
93	Caleb DouglasMIArookie	WR	23.0	-65.0 #316	-65.0	-65.0	-65.0	0 yrs
94	Brenen ThompsonLACrookie	WR	23.1	-65.3 #318	-65.3	-65.3	-65.3	0 yrs
95	Matthew GoldenGB	WR	23.1	-65.7 #320	-65.7	-65.7	-65.7	0 yrs
96	Zachariah BranchATLrookie	WR	22.4	-65.8 #321	-65.8	-65.8	-65.8	0 yrs
97	Zavion ThomasCHIrookie	WR	22.5	-65.9 #322	-65.9	-65.9	-65.9	0 yrs
98	Malachi FieldsNYGrookie	WR	23.0	-66.1 #323	-66.1	-66.1	-66.1	0 yrs
99	Adonai MitchellNYJ	WR	23.9	-66.6 #324	-66.6	-66.6	-66.6	0 yrs
Tier 26-69.1–-69.1
100	Rashod BatemanBAL	WR	26.8	-69.1 #339	-69.1	-69.1	-69.1	0 yrs
Tier 27-80.5–-72.5
101	Josh PalmerBUF	WR	26.9	-72.5 #352	-72.5	-72.5	-72.5	0 yrs
102	Isaac TeSlaaDET	WR	24.5	-73.1 #356	-73.1	-73.1	-73.1	0 yrs
103	John Metchie IIICAR	WR	26.1	-74.8 #361	-74.8	-74.8	-74.8	0 yrs
104	Kevin Austin Jr.NO	WR	26.4	-75.3 #363	-75.3	-75.3	-75.3	0 yrs
105	Xavier HutchinsonHOU	WR	26.3	-75.7 #365	-75.7	-75.7	-75.7	0 yrs
106	KaVontae TurpinDAL	WR	30.1	-75.7 #366	-75.7	-75.7	-75.7	0 yrs
107	Tyquan ThorntonKC	WR	26.1	-76.4 #367	-76.4	-76.4	-76.4	0 yrs
108	Tre HarrisLAC	WR	24.5	-76.5 #368	-76.5	-76.5	-76.5	0 yrs
109	Isaiah BondCLE	WR	22.5	-76.6 #369	-76.6	-76.6	-76.6	0 yrs
110	Greg DortchBUF	WR	28.3	-78.4 #373	-78.4	-78.4	-78.4	0 yrs
111	Jaylin NoelHOU	WR	24.0	-78.6 #374	-78.6	-78.6	-78.6	0 yrs
112	Demarcus RobinsonSF	WR	31.9	-79.4 #377	-79.4	-79.4	-79.4	0 yrs
113	Jalen TolbertMIA	WR	27.5	-80.2 #382	-80.2	-80.2	-80.2	0 yrs
114	Jordyn TysonNOrookie	WR	22.1	-80.5 #384	-80.5	-80.5	-80.5	0 yrs
Tier 28-83.8–-83.3
115	Luke McCaffreyWAS	WR	25.4	-83.3 #394	-83.3	-83.3	-83.3	0 yrs
116	Dyami BrownWAS	WR	26.8	-83.6 #395	-83.6	-83.6	-83.6	0 yrs
117	Tutu AtwellLA	WR	26.9	-83.8 #396	-83.8	-83.8	-83.8	0 yrs
Tier 29-96.7–-85.8
118	Kyle WilliamsNE	WR	23.8	-85.8 #406	-85.8	-85.8	-85.8	0 yrs
119	Reggie VirgilARIrookie	WR	22.3	-86.8 #412	-86.8	-86.8	-86.8	0 yrs
120	Jahan DotsonATL	WR	26.4	-87.0 #414	-87.0	-87.0	-87.0	0 yrs
121	Elijah MoorePHI	WR	26.4	-87.1 #415	-87.1	-87.1	-87.1	0 yrs
122	Jahdae WalkerCHI	WR	24.2	-87.4 #417	-87.4	-87.4	-87.4	0 yrs
123	Barion BrownNOrookie	WR	22.7	-87.5 #419	-87.5	-87.5	-87.5	0 yrs
124	Josh CameronJAXrookie	WR	23.5	-87.6 #420	-87.6	-87.6	-87.6	0 yrs
125	Colbie YoungCINrookie	WR	24.1	-87.6 #421	-87.6	-87.6	-87.6	0 yrs
126	Roman WilsonPIT	WR	25.2	-87.9 #423	-87.9	-87.9	-87.9	0 yrs
127	Elijah SarrattBALrookie	WR	23.3	-87.9 #424	-87.9	-87.9	-87.9	0 yrs
128	Malik BensonLVrookie	WR	23.9	-88.0 #425	-88.0	-88.0	-88.0	0 yrs
129	Kevin Coleman Jr.MIArookie	WR	23.0	-88.2 #427	-88.2	-88.2	-88.2	0 yrs
130	Bryce LanceNOrookie	WR	24.0	-88.3 #429	-88.3	-88.3	-88.3	0 yrs
131	Deion BurksINDrookie	WR	23.6	-88.6 #434	-88.6	-88.6	-88.6	0 yrs
132	Jack BechLV	WR	23.7	-88.7 #435	-88.7	-88.7	-88.7	0 yrs
133	Cyrus AllenKCrookie	WR	23.6	-88.8 #436	-88.8	-88.8	-88.8	0 yrs
134	Kaden WetjenPITrookie	WR	24.5	-88.8 #439	-88.8	-88.8	-88.8	0 yrs
135	Skyler BellBUFrookie	WR	24.2	-89.0 #441	-89.0	-89.0	-89.0	0 yrs
136	C.J. WilliamsJAXrookie	WR	23.9	-89.2 #443	-89.2	-89.2	-89.2	0 yrs
137	CJ DanielsLArookie	WR	24.7	-89.6 #448	-89.6	-89.6	-89.6	0 yrs
138	Kalif RaymondCHI	WR	32.1	-89.8 #449	-89.8	-89.8	-89.8	0 yrs
139	Devontez WalkerBAL	WR	25.2	-91.0 #458	-91.0	-91.0	-91.0	0 yrs
140	Ricky PearsallSF	WR	26.0	-91.2 #460	-91.2	-91.2	-91.2	0 yrs
141	Tank DellHOU	WR	26.8	-91.5 #461	-91.5	-91.5	-91.5	0 yrs
142	Treylon BurksWAS	WR	26.4	-91.9 #466	-91.9	-91.9	-91.9	0 yrs
143	Jaylin LaneWAS	WR	24.3	-92.4 #475	-92.4	-92.4	-92.4	0 yrs
144	Jimmy Horn Jr.CAR	WR	24.0	-93.0 #485	-93.0	-93.0	-93.0	0 yrs
145	Darius CooperPHI	WR	24.8	-93.8 #487	-93.8	-93.8	-93.8	0 yrs
146	Konata MumpfieldLA	WR	23.9	-94.5 #492	-94.5	-94.5	-94.5	0 yrs
147	Jayden HigginsHOU	WR	23.7	-94.5 #494	-94.5	-94.5	-94.5	0 yrs
148	Chris MooreBAL	WR	33.2	-95.8 #503	-95.8	-95.8	-95.8	0 yrs
149	Jordan WhittingtonLA	WR	25.9	-96.5 #504	-96.5	-96.5	-96.5	0 yrs
150	Isaiah WilliamsNYJ	WR	25.6	-96.7 #505	-96.7	-96.7	-96.7	0 yrs

Showing 24 of 150 · the top 150 of 220 with a value are in the page

Read itThe 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · half_ppr · 12 · balanced 0.85×5· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version