Rookie-pick values — what a slot has been worth

NFL classes 2012–2022: each class ranked by its draft-time expectation, the k-th rookie’s first 3 NFL seasons scored by the engine, value over replacement discounted 0.85 a year · 12-team Half-PPR · the history behind a rookie pick in a dynasty draft

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Teams10 12 14

The 1.01 has been worth 134.4 points over replacement in a rookie’s first three seasons, 20–80 34.5–252.5 over 11 classes; from the 1.03 on, at least a fifth of the picks returned nothing over replacement. Top-12 RBs are the best bet over replacement (13.4 points a game as rookies, +4.6 over the position’s replacement).

Slot values · 12-team, 1QB, 48 picks

Smoothed = the value to quote: the slot means made non-increasing in the pick (weighted isotonic) — 11 classes a slot make single slots noisy. Mean and the 20–80 band (bar; tick = mean) are the raw classes. Who was there = the positions taken at the slot.
Slot	Smoothed	Mean	20–80	n	Who was there
Round 1
1.01	134.4	134.4	34.5–252.5	11	RB 82% · WR 18%
1.02	109.6	109.6	23.7–171.3	11	RB 64% · WR 36%
1.03	71.8	69.5	0.0–94.8	11	WR 55% · RB 36% · TE 9%
1.04	71.8	74.1	0.0–159.9	11	WR 55% · RB 36% · TE 9%
1.05	41.7	31.4	0.0–91.9	11	RB 64% · WR 36%
1.06	41.7	52.1	0.0–85.0	11	RB 82% · WR 9% · QB 9%
1.07	41.7	37.1	0.0–99.6	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · QB 18%
1.08	41.7	17.1	0.0–27.3	11	WR 55% · TE 36% · QB 9%
1.09	41.7	46.4	0.0–59.0	11	WR 55% · QB 18% · RB 18%
1.10	41.7	32.9	0.0–105.8	11	RB 36% · WR 27% · QB 18%
1.11	41.7	44.4	0.0–69.0	11	QB 46% · RB 27% · TE 18%
1.12	41.7	26.7	0.0–41.2	11	QB 46% · RB 27% · WR 18%
Round 2
2.01	41.7	60.1	0.0–124.1	11	RB 46% · QB 27% · TE 18%
2.02	41.7	47.1	0.0–42.1	11	RB 46% · TE 27% · QB 18%
2.03	41.7	63.8	0.0–174.0	11	RB 46% · TE 27% · WR 18%
2.04	40.6	40.6	0.0–81.3	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · TE 18%
2.05	20.3	20.3	0.0–21.4	11	TE 46% · WR 36% · RB 18%
2.06	17.2	17.2	0.0–15.3	11	WR 46% · TE 46% · RB 9%
2.07	14.0	5.5	0.0–0.0	11	WR 55% · TE 36% · RB 9%
2.08	14.0	15.1	0.0–3.8	11	WR 64% · TE 36%
2.09	14.0	7.9	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 36%
2.10	14.0	27.6	0.0–47.6	11	WR 55% · TE 46%
2.11	13.1	3.8	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 27%
2.12	13.1	3.4	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 27%
Round 3
3.01	13.1	21.2	0.0–38.8	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
3.02	13.1	24.1	0.0–13.0	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
3.03	7.5	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · QB 9% · WR 9%
3.04	7.5	2.7	0.0–0.0	11	TE 91% · WR 9%
3.05	7.5	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · QB 9% · WR 9%
3.06	7.5	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · WR 9% · RB 9%
3.07	7.5	4.3	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 9% · RB 9%
3.08	7.5	6.2	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · WR 27% · RB 9%
3.09	7.5	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · WR 27% · RB 9%
3.10	7.5	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · WR 27% · QB 9%
3.11	7.5	33.6	0.0–31.5	11	TE 36% · QB 27% · WR 27%
3.12	7.5	9.8	0.0–0.0	11	WR 55% · TE 27% · RB 9%
Round 4
4.01	7.5	14.8	0.0–0.0	11	WR 46% · RB 27% · TE 27%
4.02	7.5	5.4	0.0–6.4	11	WR 46% · RB 27% · TE 27%
4.03	7.5	21.1	0.0–56.1	11	WR 46% · RB 27% · QB 18%
4.04	5.0	0.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 55% · WR 36% · TE 9%
4.05	5.0	4.9	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · WR 36%
4.06	5.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · WR 36%
4.07	5.0	5.1	0.0–12.5	11	RB 91% · WR 9%
4.08	5.0	0.6	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · WR 9%
4.09	5.0	3.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · WR 9%
4.10	5.0	21.2	0.0–10.6	11	RB 91% · WR 9%
4.11	2.0	2.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 100%
4.12	0.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 100%

Showing 24 of 48 · rounds 3–4 are in the page

The classes, with namesThis page is the history a pick buys into; the class pages rank the real rookies in the same unit: the 2026 rookie class.

What the value isEach class is ranked the way a rookie draft ranks it — by the per-game points rookies of that position and NFL draft capital have scored, over the position’s replacement — and slot k takes the k-th. His value = Σ over his first 3 seasons of 0.85^t × (season points − that season’s replacement level), a season under replacement counting 0. A bust is worth 0, never less.

Read the small cells with care11 classes behind every slot (2,105 rookies in all), so neighbours can swap by luck — quote the smoothed column. Ranking by capital alone is blind to college production, landing spot and development: tight ends and receivers who grow into years 2–3 are under-ranked.

Rookie points per game · by NFL draft capital × position, Half-PPR

the order above ranks these cells

Big number = points per game played in the rookie season (engine-scored, rookie seasons 2012–2025) · second line = over the position’s replacement per game in a 12-team league (what orders the class) · n = rookies and games behind the cell; “small” = fewer than 12 rookies.
NFL draft capital	QB	RB	WR	TE
Picks 1–12first round, top 12	14.7−1.3 over replacementn 33 · 418 games	13.4+4.6 over replacementn 9 · 137 games · small	9.5+0.7 over replacementn 21 · 295 games	5.5−1.5 over replacementn 4 · 57 games · small
Picks 13–32rest of round 1	12.0−3.9 over replacementn 10 · 114 games · small	9.6+0.9 over replacementn 10 · 140 games · small	8.1−0.7 over replacementn 35 · 455 games	6.4−0.6 over replacementn 10 · 141 games · small
Round 2	10.9−5.0 over replacementn 9 · 96 games · small	9.4+0.6 over replacementn 33 · 417 games	6.5−2.3 over replacementn 66 · 861 games	4.8−2.3 over replacementn 29 · 347 games
Round 3	10.7−5.3 over replacementn 18 · 105 games	6.9−1.8 over replacementn 45 · 524 games	4.8−4.0 over replacementn 70 · 830 games	3.9−3.1 over replacementn 30 · 284 games
Rounds 4–7	9.4−6.6 over replacementn 31 · 144 games	4.7−4.1 over replacementn 168 · 1,644 games	3.3−5.5 over replacementn 174 · 1,471 games	3.1−3.9 over replacementn 90 · 662 games
Undrafted	8.6−7.3 over replacementn 16 · 66 games	3.7−5.0 over replacementn 153 · 875 games	2.6−6.2 over replacementn 198 · 1,185 games	2.0−5.0 over replacementn 98 · 403 games
All rookies	12.0n 117 · 943 games	5.9n 418 · 3,737 games	4.8n 564 · 5,097 games	3.7n 261 · 1,894 games

Versionsrookie picks half_ppr · 12· classes 2012–2022· fitted 2026-09-29T08:40:32Z· rookie means season_params.json rookie [2012, 2025]· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version