Rookie-pick values — what a slot has been worth

NFL classes 2012–2022: each class ranked by its draft-time expectation, the k-th rookie’s first 3 NFL seasons scored by the engine, value over replacement discounted 0.85 a year · 10-team Half-PPR · the history behind a rookie pick in a dynasty draft

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Teams10 12 14

The 1.01 has been worth 114.9 points over replacement in a rookie’s first three seasons, 20–80 0.0–217.2 over 11 classes; from the 1.01 on, at least a fifth of the picks returned nothing over replacement. Top-12 RBs are the best bet over replacement (13.4 points a game as rookies, +3.9 over the position’s replacement).

Slot values · 10-team, 1QB, 40 picks

Smoothed = the value to quote: the slot means made non-increasing in the pick (weighted isotonic) — 11 classes a slot make single slots noisy. Mean and the 20–80 band (bar; tick = mean) are the raw classes. Who was there = the positions taken at the slot.
Slot	Smoothed	Mean	20–80	n	Who was there
Round 1
1.01	114.9	114.9	0.0–217.2	11	RB 100%
1.02	94.5	94.5	32.2–148.5	11	RB 100%
1.03	58.2	58.2	0.0–92.3	11	RB 82% · WR 9% · TE 9%
1.04	43.2	41.6	0.0–96.2	11	RB 55% · WR 36% · TE 9%
1.05	43.2	44.9	0.0–81.1	11	WR 64% · RB 36%
1.06	33.5	33.5	0.0–18.8	11	WR 64% · RB 27% · TE 9%
1.07	30.3	19.4	0.0–18.3	11	WR 73% · QB 18% · RB 9%
1.08	30.3	9.4	0.0–17.9	11	WR 55% · TE 27% · QB 18%
1.09	30.3	31.1	0.0–36.6	11	WR 55% · TE 27% · RB 18%
1.10	30.3	27.5	0.0–74.9	11	RB 36% · QB 27% · WR 27%
Round 2
2.01	30.3	33.7	0.0–41.9	11	QB 46% · RB 27% · TE 18%
2.02	30.3	16.5	0.0–22.5	11	QB 46% · RB 27% · WR 18%
2.03	30.3	43.5	0.0–82.6	11	RB 46% · QB 36% · TE 9%
2.04	30.3	40.0	0.0–26.0	11	RB 46% · TE 27% · QB 18%
2.05	30.3	50.6	0.0–90.3	11	RB 46% · TE 27% · WR 18%
2.06	30.3	31.8	0.0–52.7	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · TE 18%
2.07	15.8	15.8	0.0–9.5	11	TE 46% · WR 36% · RB 18%
2.08	13.3	13.3	0.0–4.4	11	WR 46% · TE 46% · RB 9%
2.09	10.1	3.1	0.0–0.0	11	WR 55% · TE 36% · RB 9%
2.10	10.1	12.1	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 36%
Round 3
3.01	10.1	4.2	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 36%
3.02	10.1	19.1	0.0–21.1	11	WR 55% · TE 46%
3.03	10.1	3.1	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 27%
3.04	10.1	2.2	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 27%
3.05	10.1	17.1	0.0–25.0	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
3.06	10.1	19.9	0.0–5.4	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
3.07	3.4	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · RB 9% · WR 9%
3.08	3.4	1.3	0.0–0.0	11	TE 91% · RB 9%
3.09	3.4	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · RB 18%
3.10	3.4	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · RB 18%
Round 4
4.01	3.4	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.02	3.4	10.4	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 36%
4.03	3.4	8.3	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 36%
4.04	3.4	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · RB 46%
4.05	3.4	2.5	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
4.06	3.4	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.07	3.4	2.2	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.08	3.4	16.2	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.09	1.4	1.4	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
4.10	0.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%

Showing 20 of 40 · rounds 3–4 are in the page

The classes, with namesThis page is the history a pick buys into; the class pages rank the real rookies in the same unit: the 2026 rookie class.

What the value isEach class is ranked the way a rookie draft ranks it — by the per-game points rookies of that position and NFL draft capital have scored, over the position’s replacement — and slot k takes the k-th. His value = Σ over his first 3 seasons of 0.85^t × (season points − that season’s replacement level), a season under replacement counting 0. A bust is worth 0, never less.

Read the small cells with care11 classes behind every slot (2,105 rookies in all), so neighbours can swap by luck — quote the smoothed column. Ranking by capital alone is blind to college production, landing spot and development: tight ends and receivers who grow into years 2–3 are under-ranked.

Rookie points per game · by NFL draft capital × position, Half-PPR

the order above ranks these cells

Big number = points per game played in the rookie season (engine-scored, rookie seasons 2012–2025) · second line = over the position’s replacement per game in a 10-team league (what orders the class) · n = rookies and games behind the cell; “small” = fewer than 12 rookies.
NFL draft capital	QB	RB	WR	TE
Picks 1–12first round, top 12	14.7−2.4 over replacementn 33 · 418 games	13.4+3.9 over replacementn 9 · 137 games · small	9.5−0.2 over replacementn 21 · 295 games	5.5−2.0 over replacementn 4 · 57 games · small
Picks 13–32rest of round 1	12.0−5.0 over replacementn 10 · 114 games · small	9.6+0.2 over replacementn 10 · 140 games · small	8.1−1.6 over replacementn 35 · 455 games	6.4−1.1 over replacementn 10 · 141 games · small
Round 2	10.9−6.1 over replacementn 9 · 96 games · small	9.4−0.1 over replacementn 33 · 417 games	6.5−3.2 over replacementn 66 · 861 games	4.8−2.8 over replacementn 29 · 347 games
Round 3	10.7−6.4 over replacementn 18 · 105 games	6.9−2.6 over replacementn 45 · 524 games	4.8−4.9 over replacementn 70 · 830 games	3.9−3.6 over replacementn 30 · 284 games
Rounds 4–7	9.4−7.7 over replacementn 31 · 144 games	4.7−4.8 over replacementn 168 · 1,644 games	3.3−6.4 over replacementn 174 · 1,471 games	3.1−4.4 over replacementn 90 · 662 games
Undrafted	8.6−8.4 over replacementn 16 · 66 games	3.7−5.7 over replacementn 153 · 875 games	2.6−7.1 over replacementn 198 · 1,185 games	2.0−5.5 over replacementn 98 · 403 games
All rookies	12.0n 117 · 943 games	5.9n 418 · 3,737 games	4.8n 564 · 5,097 games	3.7n 261 · 1,894 games

Versionsrookie picks half_ppr · 10· classes 2012–2022· fitted 2026-09-29T08:40:32Z· rookie means season_params.json rookie [2012, 2025]· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version