Rookie-pick values — what a slot has been worth

NFL classes 2012–2022: each class ranked by its draft-time expectation, the k-th rookie’s first 3 NFL seasons scored by the engine, value over replacement discounted 0.85 a year · 14-team Half-PPR · the history behind a rookie pick in a dynasty draft

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Teams10 12 14

The 1.01 has been worth 155.3 points over replacement in a rookie’s first three seasons, 20–80 23.4–273.6 over 11 classes; from the 1.04 on, at least a fifth of the picks returned nothing over replacement. Top-12 RBs are the best bet over replacement (13.4 points a game as rookies, +5.5 over the position’s replacement).

Slot values · 14-team, 1QB, 56 picks

Smoothed = the value to quote: the slot means made non-increasing in the pick (weighted isotonic) — 11 classes a slot make single slots noisy. Mean and the 20–80 band (bar; tick = mean) are the raw classes. Who was there = the positions taken at the slot.
Slot	Smoothed	Mean	20–80	n	Who was there
Round 1
1.01	155.3	155.3	23.4–273.6	11	RB 100%
1.02	137.1	137.1	78.8–164.0	11	RB 100%
1.03	87.5	87.5	9.0–151.9	11	RB 82% · WR 18%
1.04	69.7	63.4	0.0–132.4	11	RB 55% · WR 36% · TE 9%
1.05	69.7	75.8	0.0–153.1	11	WR 55% · RB 36% · TE 9%
1.06	69.7	69.9	0.0–121.4	11	WR 64% · RB 27% · QB 9%
1.07	51.2	24.9	0.0–36.1	11	WR 73% · QB 18% · RB 9%
1.08	51.2	40.9	8.3–70.0	11	WR 73% · QB 9% · TE 9%
1.09	51.2	62.9	0.0–143.5	11	WR 46% · TE 18% · QB 18%
1.10	51.2	20.2	0.0–21.8	11	RB 46% · QB 18% · WR 18%
1.11	51.2	55.3	0.0–84.6	11	QB 46% · WR 27% · RB 27%
1.12	51.2	49.4	0.0–60.5	11	QB 46% · WR 27% · RB 27%
1.13	51.2	52.4	0.0–113.3	11	RB 46% · QB 27% · WR 18%
1.14	51.2	55.3	0.0–43.0	11	RB 36% · TE 27% · QB 18%
Round 2
2.01	51.2	99.4	0.0–217.0	11	RB 46% · WR 27% · TE 18%
2.02	22.4	15.1	0.0–19.6	11	WR 36% · RB 36% · TE 27%
2.03	22.4	19.9	0.0–44.4	11	WR 64% · TE 18% · RB 18%
2.04	22.4	24.6	0.0–38.9	11	WR 73% · RB 18% · TE 9%
2.05	22.4	7.3	0.0–7.6	11	WR 73% · RB 27%
2.06	22.4	39.7	0.0–113.8	11	WR 64% · RB 18% · TE 18%
2.07	22.4	28.0	0.0–65.3	11	TE 55% · WR 27% · RB 18%
2.08	18.9	15.2	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · WR 27% · RB 18%
2.09	18.9	18.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 18% · WR 9%
2.10	18.9	21.4	0.0–19.2	11	RB 55% · TE 36% · WR 9%
2.11	18.9	21.0	0.0–42.3	11	RB 64% · TE 27% · WR 9%
2.12	17.8	11.5	0.0–16.7	11	RB 64% · TE 27% · WR 9%
2.13	17.8	24.0	0.0–18.9	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
2.14	8.5	2.5	0.0–0.0	11	RB 82% · TE 18%
Round 3
3.01	8.5	9.5	0.0–0.0	11	RB 82% · TE 18%
3.02	8.5	10.3	0.0–15.5	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.03	8.5	1.9	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.04	8.5	4.8	0.0–0.0	11	RB 100%
3.05	8.5	18.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 100%
3.06	8.5	12.6	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · QB 9%
3.07	7.9	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 82% · QB 9% · WR 9%
3.08	7.9	1.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · WR 27%
3.09	7.9	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · WR 18% · QB 9%
3.10	7.9	1.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · WR 27% · TE 9%
3.11	7.9	17.9	0.0–0.0	11	RB 55% · WR 27% · QB 9%
3.12	7.9	5.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 36% · WR 27% · QB 27%
3.13	7.9	30.0	0.0–21.0	11	WR 55% · RB 27% · TE 9%
3.14	7.9	4.9	0.0–0.0	11	WR 55% · TE 18% · RB 18%
Round 4
4.01	7.9	11.1	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 27% · RB 9%
4.02	7.4	3.6	0.0–0.0	11	WR 55% · TE 36% · RB 9%
4.03	7.4	2.3	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · WR 36% · RB 9%
4.04	7.4	0.8	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 9% · WR 9%
4.05	7.4	18.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 18% · RB 9%
4.06	7.4	8.8	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 18% · RB 9%
4.07	7.4	10.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 18% · WR 18%
4.08	7.2	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 18% · WR 18%
4.09	7.2	3.8	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.10	7.2	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.11	7.2	15.1	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · RB 46%
4.12	7.2	14.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 55% · TE 46%
4.13	7.2	10.5	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
4.14	0.8	0.8	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%

Showing 28 of 56 · rounds 3–4 are in the page

The classes, with namesThis page is the history a pick buys into; the class pages rank the real rookies in the same unit: the 2026 rookie class.

What the value isEach class is ranked the way a rookie draft ranks it — by the per-game points rookies of that position and NFL draft capital have scored, over the position’s replacement — and slot k takes the k-th. His value = Σ over his first 3 seasons of 0.85^t × (season points − that season’s replacement level), a season under replacement counting 0. A bust is worth 0, never less.

Read the small cells with care11 classes behind every slot (2,105 rookies in all), so neighbours can swap by luck — quote the smoothed column. Ranking by capital alone is blind to college production, landing spot and development: tight ends and receivers who grow into years 2–3 are under-ranked.

Rookie points per game · by NFL draft capital × position, Half-PPR

the order above ranks these cells

Big number = points per game played in the rookie season (engine-scored, rookie seasons 2012–2025) · second line = over the position’s replacement per game in a 14-team league (what orders the class) · n = rookies and games behind the cell; “small” = fewer than 12 rookies.
NFL draft capital	QB	RB	WR	TE
Picks 1–12first round, top 12	14.7−0.7 over replacementn 33 · 418 games	13.4+5.5 over replacementn 9 · 137 games · small	9.5+1.3 over replacementn 21 · 295 games	5.5−1.0 over replacementn 4 · 57 games · small
Picks 13–32rest of round 1	12.0−3.3 over replacementn 10 · 114 games · small	9.6+1.7 over replacementn 10 · 140 games · small	8.1−0.1 over replacementn 35 · 455 games	6.4−0.1 over replacementn 10 · 141 games · small
Round 2	10.9−4.4 over replacementn 9 · 96 games · small	9.4+1.4 over replacementn 33 · 417 games	6.5−1.7 over replacementn 66 · 861 games	4.8−1.8 over replacementn 29 · 347 games
Round 3	10.7−4.7 over replacementn 18 · 105 games	6.9−1.0 over replacementn 45 · 524 games	4.8−3.3 over replacementn 70 · 830 games	3.9−2.6 over replacementn 30 · 284 games
Rounds 4–7	9.4−6.0 over replacementn 31 · 144 games	4.7−3.2 over replacementn 168 · 1,644 games	3.3−4.9 over replacementn 174 · 1,471 games	3.1−3.4 over replacementn 90 · 662 games
Undrafted	8.6−6.7 over replacementn 16 · 66 games	3.7−4.2 over replacementn 153 · 875 games	2.6−5.6 over replacementn 198 · 1,185 games	2.0−4.5 over replacementn 98 · 403 games
All rookies	12.0n 117 · 943 games	5.9n 418 · 3,737 games	4.8n 564 · 5,097 games	3.7n 261 · 1,894 games

Versionsrookie picks half_ppr · 14· classes 2012–2022· fitted 2026-09-29T08:40:32Z· rookie means season_params.json rookie [2012, 2025]· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version