Dynasty Rankings — Overall, Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2030, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Dynasty value

value = Σ_{t over 2026–2030} VORP(t) × survival(t) × discount^t

VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).

Stated constants

Discount: 0.85 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon: 5 years (2026–2030)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves: by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94

Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by balanced dynasty value

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the balanced values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Half-PPR draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#	Player	Pos	Age	2026 VORP	5-yr value · 0.85	Contender	Rebuild	Years of value left
Tier 1307.9–368.5
1	Jahmyr GibbsDET	RB	24.5	122.2 #1	368.5	250.8	416.7	5 yrs
2	Bijan RobinsonATL	RB	24.6	119.6 #2	356.3	244.4	401.2	5 yrs
3	De'Von AchaneMIA	RB	24.9	116.3 #3	335.0	234.6	372.8	5 yrs
4	Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA	WR	24.5	93.7 #8	316.7	204.4	368.8	5 yrs
5	Puka NacuaLA	WR	25.3	101.0 #4	307.9	209.4	349.5	5 yrs
Tier 2250.0–267.4
6	Jeremiyah LoveARIrookie	RB	21.3	56.4 #16	267.4	147.4	337.0	5 yrs
7	Ja'Marr ChaseCIN	WR	26.5	96.0 #7	250.0	184.4	271.0	5 yrs
Tier 3197.3–214.4
8	Ashton JeantyLV	RB	22.7	58.7 #15	214.4	133.3	253.0	5 yrs
9	Amon-Ra St. BrownDET	WR	26.9	87.0 #9	210.7	161.9	224.1	5 yrs
10	Trey McBrideARI	TE	26.8	72.1 #11	208.9	144.2	236.8	5 yrs
11	Brock BowersLV	TE	23.7	48.9 #20	203.4	119.9	249.5	5 yrs
12	Harold Fannin Jr.CLE	TE	22.1	30.8 #35	198.4	96.3	261.2	5 yrs
13	Jonathan TaylorIND	RB	27.6	99.6 #5	197.3	167.4	206.1	5 yrs
Tier 4157.4–168.2
14	James CookBUF	RB	26.9	82.5 #10	168.2	142.5	175.9	4 yrs
15	Josh AllenBUF	QB	30.3	59.1 #14	165.6	116.3	186.6	5 yrs
16	Christian McCaffreySF	RB	30.2	97.1 #6	161.6	147.3	166.5	4 yrs
17	Drake MayeNE	QB	24.0	49.8 #19	157.4	101.8	188.3	5 yrs
Tier 5148.9–148.9
18	Kyren WilliamsLA	RB	26.0	67.4 #12	148.9	122.9	156.5	4 yrs
Tier 6137.6–137.6
19	Drake LondonATL	WR	25.1	48.3 #23	137.6	99.7	147.9	5 yrs
Tier 7108.9–127.8
20	Bucky IrvingTB	RB	24.0	45.2 #25	127.8	91.8	137.4	5 yrs
21	George PickensDAL	WR	25.5	48.8 #21	127.4	96.7	135.8	5 yrs
22	Malik NabersNYG	WR	23.1	25.4 #41	119.8	68.1	143.6	5 yrs
23	Carnell TateTENrookie	WR	21.6	10.2 #68	116.6	49.2	158.8	5 yrs
24	Chase BrownCIN	RB	26.4	56.0 #17	109.9	95.9	114.4	4 yrs
25	Quinshon JudkinsCLE	RB	22.8	30.6 #36	108.9	70.2	122.8	5 yrs
Tier 885.2–99.2
26	Colston LovelandCHI	TE	22.4	10.4 #67	99.2	44.6	131.0	5 yrs
27	Tetairoa McMillanCAR	WR	23.4	21.9 #49	97.1	57.7	112.3	5 yrs
28	Breece HallNYJ	RB	25.3	43.8 #26	97.0	80.6	101.9	4 yrs
29	George KittleSF	TE	32.9	47.6 #24	92.5	78.4	96.7	4 yrs
30	CeeDee LambDAL	WR	27.4	48.4 #22	90.0	80.3	93.3	4 yrs
31	Chris OlaveNO	WR	26.2	40.7 #28	86.6	73.3	90.7	4 yrs
32	Tyler WarrenIND	TE	24.3	22.9 #45	85.3	54.6	98.3	5 yrs
33	Omarion HamptonLAC	RB	23.5	29.1 #37	85.2	61.2	91.6	5 yrs
Tier 981.2–81.2
34	Saquon BarkleyPHI	RB	29.6	55.4 #18	81.2	76.1	82.9	3 yrs
Tier 1066.6–73.1
35	Derrick HenryBAL	RB	32.7	59.9 #13	73.1	70.8	73.9	2 yrs
36	Nico CollinsHOU	WR	27.5	41.0 #27	71.3	64.9	73.6	3 yrs
37	Zay FlowersBAL	WR	26.0	33.9 #31	70.4	60.8	73.5	4 yrs
38	Jalen HurtsPHI	QB	28.1	26.0 #38	68.8	50.1	73.8	5 yrs
39	Brock PurdySF	QB	26.7	24.7 #43	66.6	47.2	73.6	5 yrs
Tier 1162.7–62.7
40	Justin JeffersonMIN	WR	27.2	36.3 #29	62.7	57.1	64.7	3 yrs
Tier 1254.8–59.5
41	Bo NixDEN	QB	26.5	22.6 #48	59.5	42.8	65.1	5 yrs
42	Kyle PittsATL	TE	25.9	24.4 #44	58.6	45.8	62.1	5 yrs
43	Sam LaPortaDET	TE	25.6	22.8 #47	57.6	44.1	61.3	5 yrs
44	Javonte WilliamsDAL	RB	26.4	34.4 #30	57.5	52.8	59.2	3 yrs
45	TreVeyon HendersonNE	RB	23.9	22.9 #46	56.7	45.1	60.0	4 yrs
46	Cam SkatteboNYG	RB	24.6	25.4 #40	54.8	46.7	57.3	4 yrs
Tier 1352.5–52.5
47	Caleb WilliamsCHI	QB	24.8	20.5 #50	52.5	38.5	57.6	5 yrs
Tier 1442.7–46.0
48	Travis EtienneNO	RB	27.6	33.5 #32	46.0	43.8	46.7	2 yrs
49	D'Andre SwiftCHI	RB	27.6	33.5 #33	45.9	43.7	46.6	2 yrs
50	Rashee RiceKC	WR	26.4	25.7 #39	44.9	40.8	46.3	3 yrs
51	Tucker KraftGB	TE	25.8	19.0 #54	42.8	34.9	45.0	4 yrs
52	A.J. BrownNE	WR	29.2	31.6 #34	42.7	40.8	43.4	2 yrs
Tier 1535.0–35.8
53	Jadarian PriceSEArookie	RB	22.9	11.1 #65	35.8	26.4	38.4	5 yrs
54	Ladd McConkeyLAC	WR	24.8	14.4 #58	35.1	29.6	36.8	4 yrs
55	Emeka EgbukaTB	WR	23.9	9.0 #71	35.0	24.9	37.8	4 yrs
Tier 1625.2–31.3
56	Trevor LawrenceJAX	QB	26.9	14.6 #57	31.3	25.8	32.9	4 yrs
57	Brian Thomas Jr.JAX	WR	23.9	7.3 #76	29.8	21.2	32.1	4 yrs
58	Matthew StaffordLA	QB	38.6	24.7 #42	28.9	28.1	29.1	2 yrs
59	Garrett WilsonNYJ	WR	26.1	17.1 #55	26.9	25.1	27.6	3 yrs
60	Jameson WilliamsDET	WR	25.4	13.9 #60	26.3	23.7	27.3	3 yrs
61	Tee HigginsCIN	WR	27.6	19.4 #52	25.2	24.2	25.6	2 yrs
Tier 1716.5–21.4
62	Jaylen WarrenPIT	RB	27.8	19.5 #51	21.4	21.1	21.5	2 yrs
63	Kenneth Walker IIIKC	RB	25.9	14.8 #56	20.4	19.4	20.8	2 yrs
64	Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN	WR	25.7	12.4 #62	19.7	18.4	20.1	3 yrs
65	Davante AdamsLA	WR	33.7	19.3 #53	19.3	19.3	19.3	1 yr
66	Kenyon SadiqNYJrookie	TE	21.5	-14.7 #127	17.6	-9.2	36.0	3 yrs
67	Patrick MahomesKC	QB	31.0	11.9 #63	16.5	15.7	16.8	2 yrs
Tier 182.1–14.2
68	Travis KelceKC	TE	36.9	14.2 #59	14.2	14.2	14.2	1 yr
69	Rico DowdlePIT	RB	28.2	12.4 #61	12.4	12.4	12.4	1 yr
70	RJ HarveyDEN	RB	25.6	9.3 #69	11.6	11.2	11.8	2 yrs
71	DeVonta SmithPHI	WR	27.8	11.5 #64	11.5	11.5	11.5	1 yr
72	J.K. DobbinsDEN	RB	27.7	10.5 #66	10.5	10.5	10.5	1 yr
73	Jayden DanielsWAS	QB	25.7	7.2 #77	10.4	9.8	10.6	3 yrs
74	Oronde Gadsden IILAC	TE	23.2	-5.2 #102	9.7	1.4	11.9	4 yrs
75	DK MetcalfPIT	WR	28.7	9.1 #70	9.1	9.1	9.1	1 yr
76	Jaylen WaddleDEN	WR	27.8	8.4 #72	8.4	8.4	8.4	1 yr
77	Courtland SuttonDEN	WR	30.9	8.2 #73	8.2	8.2	8.2	1 yr
78	Dallas GoedertPHI	TE	31.7	8.1 #74	8.1	8.1	8.1	1 yr
79	Michael WilsonARI	WR	26.5	6.9 #78	6.9	6.9	6.9	1 yr
80	Quentin JohnstonLAC	WR	25.0	3.6 #81	6.2	5.7	6.3	2 yrs
81	Justin HerbertLAC	QB	28.5	4.6 #80	5.5	5.3	5.5	2 yrs
82	Tony PollardTEN	RB	29.3	5.4 #79	5.4	5.4	5.4	1 yr
83	Rome OdunzeCHI	WR	24.2	0.6 #87	5.2	4.1	5.5	3 yrs
84	Juwan JohnsonNO	TE	30.0	3.5 #82	3.5	3.5	3.5	1 yr
85	Deebo Samuel Sr.SF	WR	30.6	2.5 #83	2.5	2.5	2.5	1 yr
86	Jared GoffDET	QB	31.9	2.1 #86	2.1	2.1	2.1	1 yr
Tier 19-9.3–0.0
87	Hunter HenryNE	TE	31.7	0.0 #88	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
88	Alec PierceIND	WR	26.3	0.0 #89	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
89	Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG	RB	26.8	0.0 #90	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
90	Jaxson DartNYG	QB	23.3	0.0 #91	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
91	Jake FergusonDAL	TE	27.6	-0.1 #92	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	0 yrs
92	Rhamondre StevensonNE	RB	28.5	-0.7 #93	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	0 yrs
93	KC ConcepcionCLErookie	WR	21.9	-15.3 #130	-0.9	-12.8	4.6	3 yrs
94	Mark AndrewsBAL	TE	31.0	-1.1 #94	-1.1	-1.1	-1.1	0 yrs
95	Dak PrescottDAL	QB	33.1	-1.7 #95	-1.7	-1.7	-1.7	0 yrs
96	Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI	WR	24.1	-2.8 #97	-2.3	-2.4	-2.2	1 yr
97	Lamar JacksonBAL	QB	29.6	-2.8 #96	-2.8	-2.8	-2.8	0 yrs
98	Dalton SchultzHOU	TE	30.1	-3.4 #98	-3.4	-3.4	-3.4	0 yrs
99	Kenny GainwellTB	RB	27.5	-4.0 #99	-4.0	-4.0	-4.0	0 yrs
100	Jakobi MeyersJAX	WR	29.8	-4.6 #100	-4.6	-4.6	-4.6	0 yrs
101	Baker MayfieldTB	QB	31.4	-4.9 #101	-4.9	-4.9	-4.9	0 yrs
102	Jordan AddisonMIN	WR	24.6	-5.3 #103	-5.3	-5.3	-5.3	0 yrs
103	David MontgomeryHOU	RB	29.2	-5.7 #105	-5.7	-5.7	-5.7	0 yrs
104	Michael PittmanPIT	WR	28.9	-6.0 #106	-6.0	-6.0	-6.0	0 yrs
105	Kyle MonangaiCHI	RB	24.2	-7.0 #107	-7.0	-7.0	-7.0	0 yrs
106	Mike EvansSF	WR	33.0	-7.1 #108	-7.1	-7.1	-7.1	0 yrs
107	Aaron JonesMIN	RB	31.7	-7.1 #109	-7.1	-7.1	-7.1	0 yrs
108	Makai LemonPHIrookie	WR	22.2	-15.0 #128	-7.5	-13.7	-6.0	3 yrs
109	AJ BarnerSEA	TE	24.3	-8.6 #110	-8.6	-8.6	-8.6	0 yrs
110	Christian WatsonGB	WR	27.3	-9.3 #112	-9.3	-9.3	-9.3	0 yrs
Tier 20-20.5–-11.5
111	Khalil ShakirBUF	WR	26.6	-11.5 #116	-11.5	-11.5	-11.5	0 yrs
112	Dalton KincaidBUF	TE	26.9	-11.6 #117	-11.6	-11.6	-11.6	0 yrs
113	Terry McLaurinWAS	WR	31.0	-11.7 #118	-11.7	-11.7	-11.7	0 yrs
114	Brenton StrangeJAX	TE	25.7	-12.2 #119	-12.2	-12.2	-12.2	0 yrs
115	C.J. StroudHOU	QB	24.9	-12.4 #120	-12.4	-12.4	-12.4	0 yrs
116	Woody MarksHOU	RB	25.7	-13.0 #122	-13.0	-13.0	-13.0	0 yrs
117	Alvin KamaraNO	RB	31.1	-13.1 #123	-13.1	-13.1	-13.1	0 yrs
118	Chuba HubbardCAR	RB	27.2	-13.6 #124	-13.6	-13.6	-13.6	0 yrs
119	Parker WashingtonJAX	WR	24.4	-13.9 #126	-13.9	-13.9	-13.9	0 yrs
120	Cade OttonTB	TE	27.4	-15.1 #129	-15.1	-15.1	-15.1	0 yrs
121	Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS	RB	25.4	-15.4 #131	-15.4	-15.4	-15.4	0 yrs
122	Omar Cooper Jr.NYJrookie	WR	22.7	-15.7 #132	-15.7	-15.7	-15.7	0 yrs
123	DJ MooreBUF	WR	29.4	-16.5 #133	-16.5	-16.5	-16.5	0 yrs
124	Theo JohnsonNYG	TE	25.5	-17.7 #135	-17.7	-17.7	-17.7	0 yrs
125	Josh JacobsGB	RB	28.6	-17.9 #136	-17.9	-17.9	-17.9	0 yrs
126	Keenan AllenIND	WR	34.3	-18.2 #137	-18.2	-18.2	-18.2	0 yrs
127	Rachaad WhiteWAS	RB	27.6	-18.4 #138	-18.4	-18.4	-18.4	0 yrs
128	Romeo DoubsNE	WR	26.4	-19.3 #140	-19.3	-19.3	-19.3	0 yrs
129	Stefon DiggsWAS	WR	32.8	-19.4 #142	-19.4	-19.4	-19.4	0 yrs
130	Jauan JenningsMIN	WR	29.1	-19.8 #143	-19.8	-19.8	-19.8	0 yrs
131	Jayden ReedGB	WR	26.3	-19.8 #144	-19.8	-19.8	-19.8	0 yrs
132	Tre TuckerLV	WR	25.5	-20.5 #145	-20.5	-20.5	-20.5	0 yrs
Tier 21-31.1–-23.5
133	Pat FreiermuthPIT	TE	27.9	-23.5 #151	-23.5	-23.5	-23.5	0 yrs
134	Troy FranklinDEN	WR	23.6	-23.7 #152	-23.7	-23.7	-23.7	0 yrs
135	Luther Burden IIICHI	WR	22.7	-25.0 #155	-25.0	-25.0	-25.0	0 yrs
136	Josh DownsIND	WR	25.1	-25.9 #157	-25.9	-25.9	-25.9	0 yrs
137	Kimani VidalLAC	RB	25.0	-25.9 #158	-25.9	-25.9	-25.9	0 yrs
138	Jordan LoveGB	QB	27.8	-25.9 #159	-25.9	-25.9	-25.9	0 yrs
139	T.J. HockensonMIN	TE	29.2	-26.3 #160	-26.3	-26.3	-26.3	0 yrs
140	David NjokuLAC	TE	30.1	-27.8 #163	-27.8	-27.8	-27.8	0 yrs
141	Mason TaylorNYJ	TE	22.3	-27.8 #164	-27.8	-27.8	-27.8	0 yrs
142	Colby ParkinsonLA	TE	27.6	-28.1 #165	-28.1	-28.1	-28.1	0 yrs
143	Xavier WorthyKC	WR	23.3	-28.4 #166	-28.4	-28.4	-28.4	0 yrs
144	Tyjae SpearsTEN	RB	25.2	-28.6 #167	-28.6	-28.6	-28.6	0 yrs
145	Aaron RodgersPIT	QB	42.7	-29.0 #168	-29.0	-29.0	-29.0	0 yrs
146	Jordan MasonMIN	RB	27.3	-29.3 #169	-29.3	-29.3	-29.3	0 yrs
147	Jerry JeudyCLE	WR	27.4	-29.6 #170	-29.6	-29.6	-29.6	0 yrs
148	Joe BurrowCIN	QB	29.7	-30.3 #172	-30.3	-30.3	-30.3	0 yrs
149	Keon ColemanBUF	WR	23.3	-30.9 #174	-30.9	-30.9	-30.9	0 yrs
150	Kaelon BlackSFrookie	RB	24.9	-31.1 #175	-31.1	-31.1	-31.1	0 yrs

Showing 24 of 150 · the top 150 of 599 with a value are in the page

Read itDerrick Henry (RB, 32.7) is #13 on this season’s board and #35 here; Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, 22.1) goes the other way, #35 → #12. The same 2026 VORP buys different futures, and the dynasty column is where they part. The 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · half_ppr · 12 · balanced 0.85×5· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version