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Dynasty Rankings — QB, Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2030, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPRHalfStandard
Dynasty value
value = Σt over 2026–2030 VORP(t) × survival(t) × discountt
VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).
Stated constants
Discount
0.85 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon
5 years (2026–2030)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves
by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94
Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by balanced dynasty value

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the balanced values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Half-PPR draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#PlayerPosAge2026 VORP5-yr value · 0.85ContenderRebuildYears of value left
Tier 1157.4–165.6
1Josh AllenBUFQB30.359.1 #14165.6116.3186.65 yrs
2Drake MayeNEQB24.049.8 #19157.4101.8188.35 yrs
Tier 252.5–68.8
3Jalen HurtsPHIQB28.126.0 #3868.850.173.85 yrs
4Brock PurdySFQB26.724.7 #4366.647.273.65 yrs
5Bo NixDENQB26.522.6 #4859.542.865.15 yrs
6Caleb WilliamsCHIQB24.820.5 #5052.538.557.65 yrs
Tier 328.9–31.3
7Trevor LawrenceJAXQB26.914.6 #5731.325.832.94 yrs
8Matthew StaffordLAQB38.624.7 #4228.928.129.12 yrs
Tier 4-4.9–16.5
9Patrick MahomesKCQB31.011.9 #6316.515.716.82 yrs
10Jayden DanielsWASQB25.77.2 #7710.49.810.63 yrs
11Justin HerbertLACQB28.54.6 #805.55.35.52 yrs
12Jared GoffDETQB31.92.1 #862.12.12.11 yr
13Jaxson DartNYGQB23.30.0 #910.00.00.00 yrs
14Dak PrescottDALQB33.1-1.7 #95-1.7-1.7-1.70 yrs
15Lamar JacksonBALQB29.6-2.8 #96-2.8-2.8-2.80 yrs
16Baker MayfieldTBQB31.4-4.9 #101-4.9-4.9-4.90 yrs
Tier 5-12.4–-12.4
17C.J. StroudHOUQB24.9-12.4 #120-12.4-12.4-12.40 yrs
Tier 6-30.3–-25.9
18Jordan LoveGBQB27.8-25.9 #159-25.9-25.9-25.90 yrs
19Aaron RodgersPITQB42.7-29.0 #168-29.0-29.0-29.00 yrs
20Joe BurrowCINQB29.7-30.3 #172-30.3-30.3-30.30 yrs
Tier 7-40.0–-38.5
21Kyler MurrayMINQB29.1-38.5 #194-38.5-38.5-38.50 yrs
22Fernando MendozaLVrookieQB22.9-40.0 #202-40.0-40.0-40.00 yrs
Tier 8-47.8–-47.8
23Sam DarnoldSEAQB29.2-47.8 #224-47.8-47.8-47.80 yrs
Tier 9-54.0–-51.8
24Bryce YoungCARQB25.1-51.8 #241-51.8-51.8-51.80 yrs
Showing 24 of 94 · the top 94 of 94 with a value are in the page

Read itThe 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · half_ppr · 12 · balanced 0.85×5· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version