Rookie-pick values — what a slot has been worth

NFL classes 2012–2022: each class ranked by its draft-time expectation, the k-th rookie’s first 3 NFL seasons scored by the engine, value over replacement discounted 0.85 a year · 12-team PPR · the history behind a rookie pick in a dynasty draft

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Teams10 12 14

The 1.01 has been worth 144.2 points over replacement in a rookie’s first three seasons, 20–80 45.7–254.4 over 11 classes; from the 1.03 on, at least a fifth of the picks returned nothing over replacement. Top-12 RBs are the best bet over replacement (14.9 points a game as rookies, +4.7 over the position’s replacement).

Slot values · 12-team, 1QB, 48 picks

Smoothed = the value to quote: the slot means made non-increasing in the pick (weighted isotonic) — 11 classes a slot make single slots noisy. Mean and the 20–80 band (bar; tick = mean) are the raw classes. Who was there = the positions taken at the slot.
Slot	Smoothed	Mean	20–80	n	Who was there
Round 1
1.01	144.2	144.2	45.7–254.4	11	RB 55% · WR 46%
1.02	104.6	104.6	8.0–171.2	11	RB 55% · WR 46%
1.03	88.2	83.5	0.0–131.5	11	WR 64% · RB 36%
1.04	88.2	92.8	0.0–172.2	11	RB 64% · WR 27% · TE 9%
1.05	44.6	28.2	0.0–82.9	11	RB 73% · WR 18% · TE 9%
1.06	44.6	49.0	0.0–90.5	11	RB 82% · WR 9% · QB 9%
1.07	44.6	36.5	0.0–104.5	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · QB 18%
1.08	44.6	39.0	0.0–61.4	11	WR 73% · TE 18% · QB 9%
1.09	44.6	46.8	0.0–43.0	11	WR 46% · TE 18% · QB 18%
1.10	44.6	22.2	0.0–15.0	11	RB 36% · TE 27% · QB 18%
1.11	44.6	50.9	0.0–69.0	11	QB 46% · WR 27% · RB 27%
1.12	44.6	49.3	0.0–50.9	11	QB 46% · WR 27% · RB 27%
Round 2
2.01	44.6	43.8	0.0–94.8	11	RB 46% · QB 27% · WR 18%
2.02	44.6	52.2	0.0–45.1	11	RB 46% · TE 18% · QB 18%
2.03	44.6	72.8	0.0–174.7	11	RB 46% · WR 27% · TE 18%
2.04	31.0	31.0	0.0–26.5	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · TE 18%
2.05	24.6	17.6	0.0–44.6	11	WR 64% · TE 18% · RB 18%
2.06	24.6	25.1	0.0–35.9	11	WR 73% · TE 9% · QB 9%
2.07	24.6	6.8	0.0–1.2	11	WR 82% · QB 9% · RB 9%
2.08	24.6	39.5	0.0–105.0	11	WR 82% · TE 18%
2.09	24.6	33.8	0.0–80.1	11	TE 64% · WR 36%
2.10	16.9	16.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · WR 36%
2.11	14.8	1.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
2.12	14.8	25.5	0.0–33.8	11	TE 46% · WR 36% · QB 18%
Round 3
3.01	14.8	8.4	0.0–0.0	11	WR 55% · TE 36% · QB 9%
3.02	14.8	0.7	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 36%
3.03	14.8	0.5	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · WR 46%
3.04	14.8	42.6	0.0–98.9	11	WR 46% · TE 36% · QB 18%
3.05	14.8	24.0	0.0–36.3	11	WR 55% · TE 46%
3.06	6.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 46% · WR 36% · QB 9%
3.07	6.7	8.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 46% · WR 36% · QB 9%
3.08	6.7	2.3	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · WR 27% · RB 9%
3.09	6.7	0.1	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 18% · RB 9%
3.10	6.7	19.4	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 18% · RB 9%
3.11	6.7	10.6	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 18% · RB 9%
3.12	3.0	0.1	0.0–0.0	11	TE 91% · RB 9%
Round 4
4.01	3.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.02	3.0	1.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.03	3.0	5.8	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.04	3.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 55% · TE 46%
4.05	3.0	5.5	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
4.06	3.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
4.07	3.0	2.2	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
4.08	3.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
4.09	3.0	2.8	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
4.10	3.0	14.9	0.0–0.0	11	RB 82% · TE 9% · QB 9%
4.11	2.4	2.4	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · QB 9%
4.12	0.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · QB 9%

Showing 24 of 48 · rounds 3–4 are in the page

The classes, with namesThis page is the history a pick buys into; the class pages rank the real rookies in the same unit: the 2026 rookie class.

What the value isEach class is ranked the way a rookie draft ranks it — by the per-game points rookies of that position and NFL draft capital have scored, over the position’s replacement — and slot k takes the k-th. His value = Σ over his first 3 seasons of 0.85^t × (season points − that season’s replacement level), a season under replacement counting 0. A bust is worth 0, never less.

Read the small cells with care11 classes behind every slot (2,105 rookies in all), so neighbours can swap by luck — quote the smoothed column. Ranking by capital alone is blind to college production, landing spot and development: tight ends and receivers who grow into years 2–3 are under-ranked.

Rookie points per game · by NFL draft capital × position, PPR

the order above ranks these cells

Big number = points per game played in the rookie season (engine-scored, rookie seasons 2012–2025) · second line = over the position’s replacement per game in a 12-team league (what orders the class) · n = rookies and games behind the cell; “small” = fewer than 12 rookies.
NFL draft capital	QB	RB	WR	TE
Picks 1–12first round, top 12	14.7−1.3 over replacementn 33 · 418 games	14.9+4.7 over replacementn 9 · 137 games · small	11.5+1.0 over replacementn 21 · 295 games	6.8−1.9 over replacementn 4 · 57 games · small
Picks 13–32rest of round 1	12.0−3.9 over replacementn 10 · 114 games · small	10.7+0.5 over replacementn 10 · 140 games · small	9.8−0.6 over replacementn 35 · 455 games	7.9−0.8 over replacementn 10 · 141 games · small
Round 2	10.9−5.0 over replacementn 9 · 96 games · small	10.3+0.1 over replacementn 33 · 417 games	7.8−2.6 over replacementn 66 · 861 games	5.9−2.9 over replacementn 29 · 347 games
Round 3	10.7−5.3 over replacementn 18 · 105 games	7.7−2.5 over replacementn 45 · 524 games	5.9−4.6 over replacementn 70 · 830 games	4.9−3.9 over replacementn 30 · 284 games
Rounds 4–7	9.4−6.6 over replacementn 31 · 144 games	5.2−5.0 over replacementn 168 · 1,644 games	4.0−6.5 over replacementn 174 · 1,471 games	3.9−4.8 over replacementn 90 · 662 games
Undrafted	8.6−7.3 over replacementn 16 · 66 games	4.2−6.0 over replacementn 153 · 875 games	3.2−7.3 over replacementn 198 · 1,185 games	2.5−6.2 over replacementn 98 · 403 games
All rookies	12.0n 117 · 943 games	6.6n 418 · 3,737 games	5.8n 564 · 5,097 games	4.6n 261 · 1,894 games

Versionsrookie picks ppr · 12· classes 2012–2022· fitted 2026-09-29T08:40:32Z· rookie means season_params.json rookie [2012, 2025]· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version