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Week 6 Overall Rankings — Half-PPR

Josh Allen is our #1 overall for Week 6 in Half-PPR, ahead of Brock Purdy and Drake Maye. This is the first published version of this board.

Rankings table

Week 6 OVERALL · Half-PPR · Proj = engine median · Range = 20th–80th percentile · Opp/Total from the market as of 3:05 PM ET · Chg since the previous publish · locked players kept at actual points · bye-week teams (CIN, DET, MIA, MIN) excluded
RankPlayerStatusTeamOppTotalProjRangeChgVerdictNote
Tier 1 · Start if active
1Josh Allen QB1
BUF @ LV · 53.5
—BUF@ LV53.521.4—Start if activeP(active) 85% from the injury report; median 21.4 if he plays.
Tier 2
2Brock Purdy QB2
SF vs WAS · 51.5
—SFvs WAS (Mon)51.519.4—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 12.0–27.2.
3Drake Maye QB3
NE vs NYJ · 43.5
—NEvs NYJ43.518.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 11.1–26.3.
4Matthew Stafford QB4
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.517.9—Start if activeP(active) 85% from the injury report; median 17.9 if he plays.
5Jayden Daniels QB5
WAS @ SF · 51.5
—WAS@ SF (Mon)51.516.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 9.7–24.1.
6Trevor Lawrence QB6
JAX vs HOU · 42.5
—JAXvs HOU42.516.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 9.8–23.8.
7C.J. Stroud QB7
HOU @ JAX · 42.5
—HOU@ JAX42.516.0—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 9.6–23.0.
8Bijan Robinson RB1
ATL vs CHI · 52.0
—ATLvs CHI52.015.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 9.4–24.7.
9Puka Nacua WR1
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.515.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 8.4–26.4.
10Jacoby Brissett QB8
ARI @ LA · 51.5
—ARI@ LA51.515.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 8.9–23.0.
11Dak Prescott QB9
DAL @ GB · 53.0
—DAL@ GB53.015.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 9.3–22.6.
12Jordan Love QB10
GB vs DAL · 53.0
—GBvs DAL53.015.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 9.2–22.4.
13Kyren Williams RB2
LA vs ARI · 51.5
—LAvs ARI51.515.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs ARI · 20–80 range 8.9–23.9.
14Kirk Cousins QB11
LV vs BUF · 53.5
—LVvs BUF53.515.4—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 8.8–22.3.
15Derrick Henry RB3
BAL @ CLE · 40.0
—BAL@ CLE40.015.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 8.5–23.8.
16Aaron Rodgers QB12
PIT @ TB · 39.5
—PIT@ TB39.515.2—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 8.8–22.0.
17Jalen Hurts QB13
PHI vs CAR · 39.0
—PHIvs CAR39.015.0—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CAR · 20–80 range 8.4–22.3.
18Jaylen Warren RB4
PIT @ TB · 39.5
—PIT@ TB39.514.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 8.7–23.4.
19Deshaun Watson QB14
CLE vs BAL · 40.0
—CLEvs BAL40.014.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 8.8–21.2.
20Tyler Shough QB15
NO @ NYG · 46.0
—NO@ NYG46.014.8—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 8.3–21.7.
21Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR2
SEA @ DEN
—SEA@ DEN (Thu)final14.6—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 7.3–24.6.
22Javonte Williams RB5
DAL @ GB · 53.0
—DAL@ GB53.013.9—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 7.5–22.0.
23Jonathan Taylor RB6
IND vs TEN · 44.5
—INDvs TEN44.513.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 7.3–21.5.
24James Cook RB7
BUF @ LV · 53.5
—BUF@ LV53.513.5—StartEnsemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LV · 20–80 range 7.3–21.5.
Showing 24 of 300 · tiers 2+ below

Key changes since the previous publish

First published version of this board — no changes to show yet.

The engine's read on Week 6
Engine byline · no human author · Week 5 OVERALL accuracy: MAE 7.0, top-12 hit 4/12

Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.

Tiers 1–2 in depth

Josh AllenQB1 · BUF @ LV
Median 21.4 · 20–80 range 8.5–31.0 · game total 53.5. P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 21.4 if he plays.
Brock PurdyQB2 · SF vs WAS
Median 19.4 · 20–80 range 12.0–27.2 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 12.0–27.2.
Drake MayeQB3 · NE vs NYJ
Median 18.6 · 20–80 range 11.1–26.3 · game total 43.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 11.1–26.3.
Matthew StaffordQB4 · LA vs ARI
Median 17.9 · 20–80 range 6.5–26.0 · game total 51.5. P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 17.9 if he plays.
Jayden DanielsQB5 · WAS @ SF
Median 16.5 · 20–80 range 9.7–24.1 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 9.7–24.1.
Trevor LawrenceQB6 · JAX vs HOU
Median 16.5 · 20–80 range 9.8–23.8 · game total 42.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 9.8–23.8.

Common questions about Week 6 OVERALL rankings

Who is the best overall to start in Week 6 Half-PPR?

Josh Allen, our OVERALL1 with a 21.4-point median; Brock Purdy is OVERALL2.

When do these rankings update?

Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.

How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09
Market2026-w06-2026-10-16-19
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 5 OVERALL accuracyMAE 7.0 · top-12 hit 4/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 13, 5:32 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w6-20261013T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
VersionsRankings v0850ba1e· projections ens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09· lines 2026-w06-2026-10-16-19· injuries 2026-10-15T22:45:25Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version