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Dynasty Rankings — Rookies, Standard

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2030, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPRHalfStandard
Dynasty value
value = Σt over 2026–2030 VORP(t) × survival(t) × discountt
VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).
Stated constants
Discount
0.85 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon
5 years (2026–2030)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves
by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94
Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by balanced dynasty value, rookies only

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the balanced values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Standard draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#PlayerPosAge2026 VORP5-yr value · 0.85ContenderRebuildYears of value left
Tier 1261.1–261.1
1Jeremiyah LoveARIrookieRB21.356.6 #16261.1145.0328.95 yrs
Tier 261.1–74.0
2Carnell TateTENrookieWR21.63.2 #7874.028.2102.75 yrs
3Jadarian PriceSEArookieRB22.918.0 #5061.141.166.45 yrs
Tier 39.6–9.6
4Kenyon SadiqNYJrookieTE21.5-12.4 #1229.6-8.922.33 yrs
Tier 4-17.6–-15.8
5KC ConcepcionCLErookieWR21.9-17.8 #138-15.8-17.8-15.42 yrs
6Makai LemonPHIrookieWR22.2-17.3 #136-17.3-17.3-17.30 yrs
7Omar Cooper Jr.NYJrookieWR22.7-17.6 #137-17.6-17.6-17.60 yrs
Tier 5-20.9–-20.9
8Kaelon BlackSFrookieRB24.9-20.9 #147-20.9-20.9-20.90 yrs
Tier 6-35.6–-33.2
9Marlin KleinHOUrookieTE24.0-33.2 #193-33.2-33.2-33.20 yrs
10Max KlareLArookieTE23.2-34.4 #194-34.4-34.4-34.40 yrs
11Nate BoerkircherJAXrookieTE25.0-34.8 #196-34.8-34.8-34.80 yrs
12De'Zhaun StriblingSFrookieWR23.7-34.9 #197-34.9-34.9-34.90 yrs
13Denzel BostonCLErookieWR22.7-35.2 #200-35.2-35.2-35.20 yrs
14Germie BernardPITrookieWR22.7-35.6 #203-35.6-35.6-35.60 yrs
Tier 7-40.0–-40.0
15Fernando MendozaLVrookieQB22.9-40.0 #218-40.0-40.0-40.00 yrs
Tier 8-47.8–-42.0
16Eli RaridonNErookieTE22.6-42.0 #228-42.0-42.0-42.00 yrs
17Oscar DelpNOrookieTE23.1-42.3 #229-42.3-42.3-42.30 yrs
18Will KacmarekMIArookieTE23.6-42.7 #231-42.7-42.7-42.70 yrs
19Sam RoushCHIrookieTE23.0-43.1 #235-43.1-43.1-43.10 yrs
20Mike Washington Jr.LVrookieRB23.2-44.9 #239-44.9-44.9-44.90 yrs
21Nicholas SingletonTENrookieRB22.7-45.6 #242-45.6-45.6-45.60 yrs
22Emmett JohnsonKCrookieRB22.9-46.5 #246-46.5-46.5-46.50 yrs
23Eli HeidenreichPITrookieRB23.1-46.9 #250-46.9-46.9-46.90 yrs
24Jonah ColemanDENrookieRB23.0-46.9 #251-46.9-46.9-46.90 yrs
Showing 24 of 99 · the top 99 of 99 with a value are in the page

Read itThe 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · standard · 12 · balanced 0.85×5· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version