Josh Allen is our QB1 for Week 6 in Standard, ahead of Brock Purdy and Drake Maye. This is the first published version of this board.
Rankings table
| Rank | Player | Status | Team | Opp | Total | Proj | Range | Chg | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Start if active | ||||||||||
| 1 | Josh Allen BUF @ LV · 53.5 | — | BUF | @ LV | 53.5 | 21.4 | — | Start if active | P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 21.4 if he plays. | |
| Tier 2 · Start | ||||||||||
| 2 | Brock Purdy SF vs WAS · 51.5 | — | SF | vs WAS (Mon) | 51.5 | 19.4 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 12.0–27.2. | |
| 3 | Drake Maye NE vs NYJ · 43.5 | — | NE | vs NYJ | 43.5 | 18.6 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 11.1–26.3. | |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford LA vs ARI · 51.5 | — | LA | vs ARI | 51.5 | 17.9 | — | Start if active | P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 17.9 if he plays. | |
| 5 | Jayden Daniels WAS @ SF · 51.5 | — | WAS | @ SF (Mon) | 51.5 | 16.5 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 9.7–24.1. | |
| 6 | Trevor Lawrence JAX vs HOU · 42.5 | — | JAX | vs HOU | 42.5 | 16.5 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 9.8–23.8. | |
| 7 | C.J. Stroud HOU @ JAX · 42.5 | — | HOU | @ JAX | 42.5 | 16.0 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ JAX · 20–80 range 9.6–23.0. | |
| 8 | Jacoby Brissett ARI @ LA · 51.5 | — | ARI | @ LA | 51.5 | 15.8 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ LA · 20–80 range 8.9–23.0. | |
| 9 | Dak Prescott DAL @ GB · 53.0 | — | DAL | @ GB | 53.0 | 15.6 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ GB · 20–80 range 9.3–22.6. | |
| 10 | Jordan Love GB vs DAL · 53.0 | — | GB | vs DAL | 53.0 | 15.6 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs DAL · 20–80 range 9.2–22.4. | |
| 11 | Kirk Cousins LV vs BUF · 53.5 | — | LV | vs BUF | 53.5 | 15.4 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BUF · 20–80 range 8.8–22.3. | |
| 12 | Aaron Rodgers PIT @ TB · 39.0 | — | PIT | @ TB | 39.0 | 15.2 | — | Start | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ TB · 20–80 range 8.8–22.0. | |
| 13 | Jalen Hurts PHI vs CAR · 39.0 | — | PHI | vs CAR | 39.0 | 15.0 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CAR · 20–80 range 8.4–22.3. | |
| 14 | Deshaun Watson CLE vs BAL · 39.5 | — | CLE | vs BAL | 39.5 | 14.8 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs BAL · 20–80 range 8.8–21.2. | |
| 15 | Tyler Shough NO @ NYG · 46.0 | — | NO | @ NYG | 46.0 | 14.8 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NYG · 20–80 range 8.3–21.7. | |
| Tier 3 · Sit | ||||||||||
| 16 | Bo Nix DEN vs SEA | — | DEN | vs SEA (Thu) | final | 13.1 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs SEA · 20–80 range 6.9–19.9. | |
| 17 | Jameis Winston NYG vs NO · 46.0 | — | NYG | vs NO | 46.0 | 12.7 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NO · 20–80 range 6.7–19.3. | |
| 18 | Tyler Huntley BAL @ CLE · 39.5 | — | BAL | @ CLE | 39.5 | 12.5 | — | Flex | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ CLE · 20–80 range 6.9–18.6. | |
| 19 | Daniel Jones IND vs TEN · 44.5 | — | IND | vs TEN | 44.5 | 12.5 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs TEN · 20–80 range 6.9–18.9. | |
| 20 | Geno Smith NYJ @ NE · 43.5 | — | NYJ | @ NE | 43.5 | 12.3 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ NE · 20–80 range 6.8–18.1. | |
| 21 | Cam Ward TEN @ IND · 44.5 | — | TEN | @ IND | 44.5 | 12.3 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ IND · 20–80 range 6.3–18.8. | |
| 22 | Sam Darnold SEA @ DEN | — | SEA | @ DEN (Thu) | final | 12.1 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ DEN · 20–80 range 6.4–18.4. | |
| 23 | Justin Herbert LAC @ KC · 41.5 | — | LAC | @ KC | 41.5 | 12.0 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ KC · 20–80 range 6.3–18.4. | |
| 24 | Michael Penix Jr. ATL vs CHI · 52.0 | — | ATL | vs CHI | 52.0 | 11.9 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs CHI · 20–80 range 7.0–17.4. | |
| 25 | Jalon Daniels TB vs PIT · 39.0 | — | TB | vs PIT | 39.0 | 11.1 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs PIT · 20–80 range 5.8–16.9. | |
| Tier 4 · Sit | ||||||||||
| 26 | Tyson Bagent CHI @ ATL · 52.0 | — | CHI | @ ATL | 52.0 | 4.8 | — | Sit | Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ ATL · 20–80 range 0.5–10.8. | |
| Tier 5 · Start if active | ||||||||||
| 27 | Tyrod Taylor GB vs DAL · 53.0 | — | GB | vs DAL | 53.0 | 0.0 | — | Start if active | P(active) 40% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
| 28 | Case Keenum CHI @ ATL · 52.0 | — | CHI | @ ATL | 52.0 | 0.0 | — | Start if active | P(active) 40% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
| 29 | Mitchell Trubisky TEN @ IND · 44.5 | — | TEN | @ IND | 44.5 | 0.0 | — | Start if active | P(active) 27% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
| 30 | Kyle Allen BUF @ LV · 53.5 | — | BUF | @ LV | 53.5 | 0.0 | — | Start if active | P(active) 27% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
| 31 | Mason Rudolph PIT @ TB · 39.0 | — | PIT | @ TB | 39.0 | 0.0 | — | Start if active | P(active) 40% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
| 32 | Jarrett Stidham DEN vs SEA | — | DEN | vs SEA (Thu) | final | 0.0 | — | Start if active | P(active) 27% from the injury report; median 0.0 if he plays. | |
Showing 24 of 32 · tiers 3+ below
Key changes since the previous publish
First published version of this board — no changes to show yet.
The engine's read on Week 6
Engine byline · no human author · Week 5 QB accuracy: MAE 7.0, top-12 hit 8/12
Engine-generated board: four projection sources (recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency, opponent) blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger, scored through 10,000 fitted-distribution outcomes under this format. No analyst has reviewed it yet.
Tiers 1–2 in depth
Josh AllenQB1 · BUF @ LV
Median 21.4 · 20–80 range 8.5–31.0 · game total 53.5. P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 21.4 if he plays.
Brock PurdyQB2 · SF vs WAS
Median 19.4 · 20–80 range 12.0–27.2 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs WAS · 20–80 range 12.0–27.2.
Drake MayeQB3 · NE vs NYJ
Median 18.6 · 20–80 range 11.1–26.3 · game total 43.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs NYJ · 20–80 range 11.1–26.3.
Matthew StaffordQB4 · LA vs ARI
Median 17.9 · 20–80 range 6.5–26.0 · game total 51.5. P(active) 85% from the injury report; median 17.9 if he plays.
Jayden DanielsQB5 · WAS @ SF
Median 16.5 · 20–80 range 9.7–24.1 · game total 51.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; @ SF · 20–80 range 9.7–24.1.
Trevor LawrenceQB6 · JAX vs HOU
Median 16.5 · 20–80 range 9.8–23.8 · game total 42.5. Ensemble: recency, season rate, opportunity × efficiency and opponent blended by fitted weights; vs HOU · 20–80 range 9.8–23.8.
Common questions about Week 6 QB rankings
Who is the best quarterback to start in Week 6 Standard?
Josh Allen, our QB1 with a 21.4-point median; Brock Purdy is QB2.
When do these rankings update?
Published Tuesday, refreshed Thursday and Saturday mornings, and again Sunday at 8 AM ET; inactives are polled from 90 minutes before each kickoff.
How this board is built
Projectionsens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09
Market2026-w06-2026-10-16-20
Simulation10,000 outcomes per player
Week 5 QB accuracyMAE 7.0 · top-12 hit 8/12
Rankings versionv1 · Tue, Oct 13, 5:32 AM ET
Ranks tagseed-2026-w6-20261013T0931
Projection sources are blended by weights fitted on the forecast ledger; ranges come from simulated outcomes with injury status priced in. Every number on this page is the engine's. Data credits
More rankings
VersionsRankings v0850ba1e· projections ens-fit-2026w05-mkt-2026-w6-2026-10-13+mkt-2026-w06-2026-10-13-09· lines 2026-w06-2026-10-16-20· injuries 2026-10-15T22:45:25Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version