Rookie-pick values — what a slot has been worth

NFL classes 2012–2022: each class ranked by its draft-time expectation, the k-th rookie’s first 3 NFL seasons scored by the engine, value over replacement discounted 0.85 a year · 14-team PPR · the history behind a rookie pick in a dynasty draft

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Teams10 12 14

The 1.01 has been worth 168.1 points over replacement in a rookie’s first three seasons, 20–80 81.4–283.9 over 11 classes; from the 1.03 on, at least a fifth of the picks returned nothing over replacement. Top-12 RBs are the best bet over replacement (14.9 points a game as rookies, +5.6 over the position’s replacement).

Slot values · 14-team, 1QB, 56 picks

Smoothed = the value to quote: the slot means made non-increasing in the pick (weighted isotonic) — 11 classes a slot make single slots noisy. Mean and the 20–80 band (bar; tick = mean) are the raw classes. Who was there = the positions taken at the slot.
Slot	Smoothed	Mean	20–80	n	Who was there
Round 1
1.01	168.1	168.1	81.4–283.9	11	RB 55% · WR 46%
1.02	124.9	124.9	12.8–200.7	11	RB 55% · WR 46%
1.03	104.2	100.5	0.0–160.9	11	WR 64% · RB 36%
1.04	104.2	108.0	0.0–209.9	11	RB 64% · WR 27% · TE 9%
1.05	54.8	37.0	0.0–113.3	11	RB 73% · WR 18% · TE 9%
1.06	54.8	59.7	0.0–101.4	11	RB 82% · WR 9% · QB 9%
1.07	54.8	48.9	0.0–130.0	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · QB 18%
1.08	54.8	50.7	0.6–78.4	11	WR 73% · TE 18% · QB 9%
1.09	54.8	58.8	0.0–54.7	11	WR 46% · TE 18% · QB 18%
1.10	54.8	28.4	0.0–20.5	11	RB 36% · TE 27% · QB 18%
1.11	54.8	62.3	0.0–84.6	11	QB 46% · WR 27% · RB 27%
1.12	54.8	59.2	0.0–76.2	11	QB 46% · WR 27% · RB 27%
1.13	54.8	52.6	0.0–113.7	11	RB 46% · QB 27% · WR 18%
1.14	54.8	61.3	0.0–67.9	11	RB 46% · TE 18% · QB 18%
Round 2
2.01	54.8	83.9	0.0–193.1	11	RB 46% · WR 27% · TE 18%
2.02	37.4	37.4	0.0–32.3	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · TE 18%
2.03	30.9	22.5	0.0–56.0	11	WR 64% · TE 18% · RB 18%
2.04	30.9	29.8	0.0–51.6	11	WR 73% · TE 9% · QB 9%
2.05	30.9	10.1	0.0–11.0	11	WR 82% · QB 9% · RB 9%
2.06	30.9	49.0	0.0–142.9	11	WR 82% · TE 18%
2.07	30.9	43.0	0.0–99.4	11	TE 55% · WR 36% · RB 9%
2.08	21.3	20.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · WR 36% · RB 9%
2.09	21.3	3.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 18% · RB 9%
2.10	21.3	34.4	0.0–53.5	11	WR 36% · TE 36% · QB 18%
2.11	21.3	11.2	0.0–7.7	11	WR 55% · TE 27% · RB 9%
2.12	21.3	15.1	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 27% · RB 9%
2.13	21.3	1.2	0.0–0.0	11	WR 46% · TE 36% · RB 18%
2.14	21.3	49.5	0.0–114.7	11	WR 46% · RB 18% · TE 18%
Round 3
3.01	21.3	35.3	0.0–55.6	11	WR 55% · RB 27% · TE 18%
3.02	11.1	0.8	0.0–0.0	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · QB 9%
3.03	11.1	11.4	0.0–0.0	11	RB 46% · WR 36% · QB 9%
3.04	11.1	8.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · WR 27% · QB 9%
3.05	11.1	13.1	0.0–16.4	11	RB 82% · WR 18%
3.06	11.1	4.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 82% · WR 18%
3.07	11.1	24.8	0.0–41.3	11	RB 82% · WR 18%
3.08	11.1	7.0	0.0–13.2	11	RB 100%
3.09	11.1	19.5	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.10	5.7	5.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.11	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.12	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.13	5.7	2.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
3.14	5.7	12.2	0.0–0.0	11	RB 82% · TE 18%
Round 4
4.01	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.02	5.7	4.3	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
4.03	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · RB 46%
4.04	5.7	0.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 18% · QB 9%
4.05	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 18% · QB 9%
4.06	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 18% · QB 9%
4.07	5.7	12.6	0.0–7.2	11	TE 64% · QB 18% · RB 18%
4.08	5.7	1.8	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 27% · QB 9%
4.09	5.7	14.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 18% · QB 9%
4.10	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.11	5.7	21.9	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · RB 27% · QB 18%
4.12	5.7	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 46% · RB 36% · QB 18%
4.13	5.7	20.9	0.0–0.0	11	RB 36% · TE 36% · QB 27%
4.14	5.7	10.9	0.0–0.0	11	RB 46% · TE 36% · QB 18%

Showing 28 of 56 · rounds 3–4 are in the page

The classes, with namesThis page is the history a pick buys into; the class pages rank the real rookies in the same unit: the 2026 rookie class.

What the value isEach class is ranked the way a rookie draft ranks it — by the per-game points rookies of that position and NFL draft capital have scored, over the position’s replacement — and slot k takes the k-th. His value = Σ over his first 3 seasons of 0.85^t × (season points − that season’s replacement level), a season under replacement counting 0. A bust is worth 0, never less.

Read the small cells with care11 classes behind every slot (2,105 rookies in all), so neighbours can swap by luck — quote the smoothed column. Ranking by capital alone is blind to college production, landing spot and development: tight ends and receivers who grow into years 2–3 are under-ranked.

Rookie points per game · by NFL draft capital × position, PPR

the order above ranks these cells

Big number = points per game played in the rookie season (engine-scored, rookie seasons 2012–2025) · second line = over the position’s replacement per game in a 14-team league (what orders the class) · n = rookies and games behind the cell; “small” = fewer than 12 rookies.
NFL draft capital	QB	RB	WR	TE
Picks 1–12first round, top 12	14.7−0.7 over replacementn 33 · 418 games	14.9+5.6 over replacementn 9 · 137 games · small	11.5+1.8 over replacementn 21 · 295 games	6.8−1.3 over replacementn 4 · 57 games · small
Picks 13–32rest of round 1	12.0−3.3 over replacementn 10 · 114 games · small	10.7+1.4 over replacementn 10 · 140 games · small	9.8+0.2 over replacementn 35 · 455 games	7.9−0.2 over replacementn 10 · 141 games · small
Round 2	10.9−4.4 over replacementn 9 · 96 games · small	10.3+1.0 over replacementn 33 · 417 games	7.8−1.8 over replacementn 66 · 861 games	5.9−2.3 over replacementn 29 · 347 games
Round 3	10.7−4.7 over replacementn 18 · 105 games	7.7−1.6 over replacementn 45 · 524 games	5.9−3.8 over replacementn 70 · 830 games	4.9−3.3 over replacementn 30 · 284 games
Rounds 4–7	9.4−6.0 over replacementn 31 · 144 games	5.2−4.1 over replacementn 168 · 1,644 games	4.0−5.6 over replacementn 174 · 1,471 games	3.9−4.2 over replacementn 90 · 662 games
Undrafted	8.6−6.7 over replacementn 16 · 66 games	4.2−5.1 over replacementn 153 · 875 games	3.2−6.4 over replacementn 198 · 1,185 games	2.5−5.6 over replacementn 98 · 403 games
All rookies	12.0n 117 · 943 games	6.6n 418 · 3,737 games	5.8n 564 · 5,097 games	4.6n 261 · 1,894 games

Versionsrookie picks ppr · 14· classes 2012–2022· fitted 2026-09-29T08:40:32Z· rookie means season_params.json rookie [2012, 2025]· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version