Dynasty Rankings — RB, Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2028, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Dynasty value

value = Σ_{t over 2026–2028} VORP(t) × survival(t) × discount^t

VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).

Stated constants

Discount: 0.70 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon: 3 years (2026–2028)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves: by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94

Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by contender dynasty value

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the contender values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Half-PPR draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#	Player	Pos	Age	2026 VORP	3-yr value · 0.70	Balanced	Rebuild	Years of value left
Tier 1234.6–250.8
1	Jahmyr GibbsDET	RB	24.5	122.2 #1	250.8	368.5	416.7	3 yrs
2	Bijan RobinsonATL	RB	24.6	119.6 #2	244.4	356.3	401.2	3 yrs
3	De'Von AchaneMIA	RB	24.9	116.3 #3	234.6	335.0	372.8	3 yrs
Tier 2167.4–167.4
4	Jonathan TaylorIND	RB	27.6	99.6 #5	167.4	197.3	206.1	3 yrs
Tier 3122.9–147.4
5	Jeremiyah LoveARIrookie	RB	21.3	56.4 #16	147.4	267.4	337.0	3 yrs
6	Christian McCaffreySF	RB	30.2	97.1 #6	147.3	161.6	166.5	3 yrs
7	James CookBUF	RB	26.9	82.5 #10	142.5	168.2	175.9	3 yrs
8	Ashton JeantyLV	RB	22.7	58.7 #15	133.3	214.4	253.0	3 yrs
9	Kyren WilliamsLA	RB	26.0	67.4 #12	122.9	148.9	156.5	3 yrs
Tier 470.2–95.9
10	Chase BrownCIN	RB	26.4	56.0 #17	95.9	109.9	114.4	3 yrs
11	Bucky IrvingTB	RB	24.0	45.2 #25	91.8	127.8	137.4	3 yrs
12	Breece HallNYJ	RB	25.3	43.8 #26	80.6	97.0	101.9	3 yrs
13	Saquon BarkleyPHI	RB	29.6	55.4 #18	76.1	81.2	82.9	3 yrs
14	Derrick HenryBAL	RB	32.7	59.9 #13	70.8	73.1	73.9	2 yrs
15	Quinshon JudkinsCLE	RB	22.8	30.6 #36	70.2	108.9	122.8	3 yrs
Tier 543.7–61.2
16	Omarion HamptonLAC	RB	23.5	29.1 #37	61.2	85.2	91.6	3 yrs
17	Javonte WilliamsDAL	RB	26.4	34.4 #30	52.8	57.5	59.2	3 yrs
18	Cam SkatteboNYG	RB	24.6	25.4 #40	46.7	54.8	57.3	3 yrs
19	TreVeyon HendersonNE	RB	23.9	22.9 #46	45.1	56.7	60.0	3 yrs
20	Travis EtienneNO	RB	27.6	33.5 #32	43.8	46.0	46.7	2 yrs
21	D'Andre SwiftCHI	RB	27.6	33.5 #33	43.7	45.9	46.6	2 yrs
Tier 626.4–26.4
22	Jadarian PriceSEArookie	RB	22.9	11.1 #65	26.4	35.8	38.4	3 yrs
Tier 719.4–21.1
23	Jaylen WarrenPIT	RB	27.8	19.5 #51	21.1	21.4	21.5	2 yrs
24	Kenneth Walker IIIKC	RB	25.9	14.8 #56	19.4	20.4	20.8	2 yrs
Tier 810.5–12.4
25	Rico DowdlePIT	RB	28.2	12.4 #61	12.4	12.4	12.4	1 yr
26	RJ HarveyDEN	RB	25.6	9.3 #69	11.2	11.6	11.8	2 yrs
27	J.K. DobbinsDEN	RB	27.7	10.5 #66	10.5	10.5	10.5	1 yr
Tier 95.4–5.4
28	Tony PollardTEN	RB	29.3	5.4 #79	5.4	5.4	5.4	1 yr
Tier 10-0.7–0.0
29	Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG	RB	26.8	0.0 #90	0.0	0.0	0.0	0 yrs
30	Rhamondre StevensonNE	RB	28.5	-0.7 #93	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	0 yrs
Tier 11-7.1–-4.0
31	Kenny GainwellTB	RB	27.5	-4.0 #99	-4.0	-4.0	-4.0	0 yrs
32	David MontgomeryHOU	RB	29.2	-5.7 #105	-5.7	-5.7	-5.7	0 yrs
33	Kyle MonangaiCHI	RB	24.2	-7.0 #107	-7.0	-7.0	-7.0	0 yrs
34	Aaron JonesMIN	RB	31.7	-7.1 #109	-7.1	-7.1	-7.1	0 yrs
Tier 12-15.4–-13.0
35	Woody MarksHOU	RB	25.7	-13.0 #122	-13.0	-13.0	-13.0	0 yrs
36	Alvin KamaraNO	RB	31.1	-13.1 #123	-13.1	-13.1	-13.1	0 yrs
37	Chuba HubbardCAR	RB	27.2	-13.6 #124	-13.6	-13.6	-13.6	0 yrs
38	Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS	RB	25.4	-15.4 #131	-15.4	-15.4	-15.4	0 yrs
Tier 13-18.4–-17.9
39	Josh JacobsGB	RB	28.6	-17.9 #136	-17.9	-17.9	-17.9	0 yrs
40	Rachaad WhiteWAS	RB	27.6	-18.4 #138	-18.4	-18.4	-18.4	0 yrs
Tier 14-32.5–-25.9
41	Kimani VidalLAC	RB	25.0	-25.9 #158	-25.9	-25.9	-25.9	0 yrs
42	Tyjae SpearsTEN	RB	25.2	-28.6 #167	-28.6	-28.6	-28.6	0 yrs
43	Jordan MasonMIN	RB	27.3	-29.3 #169	-29.3	-29.3	-29.3	0 yrs
44	Kaelon BlackSFrookie	RB	24.9	-31.1 #175	-31.1	-31.1	-31.1	0 yrs
45	Jonathon BrooksCAR	RB	23.1	-32.5 #179	-32.5	-32.5	-32.5	0 yrs
Tier 15-38.5–-36.9
46	Tyler AllgeierARI	RB	26.4	-36.9 #189	-36.9	-36.9	-36.9	0 yrs
47	Blake CorumLA	RB	25.8	-38.5 #193	-38.5	-38.5	-38.5	0 yrs
Tier 16-52.8–-44.4
48	Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX	RB	26.9	-44.4 #215	-44.4	-44.4	-44.4	0 yrs
49	Dylan SampsonCLE	RB	22.0	-45.9 #219	-45.9	-45.9	-45.9	0 yrs
50	Devin SingletaryNYG	RB	29.0	-48.1 #227	-48.1	-48.1	-48.1	0 yrs
51	Bhayshul TutenJAX	RB	24.5	-50.0 #234	-50.0	-50.0	-50.0	0 yrs
52	Emanuel WilsonSEA	RB	27.3	-51.0 #238	-51.0	-51.0	-51.0	0 yrs
53	Najee HarrisNYG	RB	28.5	-52.8 #246	-52.8	-52.8	-52.8	0 yrs
54	Bam KnightARI	RB	25.4	-52.8 #247	-52.8	-52.8	-52.8	0 yrs
Tier 17-65.0–-55.9
55	Sean TuckerTB	RB	24.9	-55.9 #260	-55.9	-55.9	-55.9	0 yrs
56	Brian RobinsonATL	RB	27.4	-56.9 #267	-56.9	-56.9	-56.9	0 yrs
57	Mike Washington Jr.LVrookie	RB	23.2	-58.6 #271	-58.6	-58.6	-58.6	0 yrs
58	Nicholas SingletonTENrookie	RB	22.7	-59.3 #275	-59.3	-59.3	-59.3	0 yrs
59	Samaje PerineCIN	RB	31.0	-59.6 #278	-59.6	-59.6	-59.6	0 yrs
60	Jaylen WrightMIA	RB	23.4	-59.6 #280	-59.6	-59.6	-59.6	0 yrs
61	Emmett JohnsonKCrookie	RB	22.9	-60.2 #284	-60.2	-60.2	-60.2	0 yrs
62	MarShawn LloydGB	RB	25.7	-60.5 #285	-60.5	-60.5	-60.5	0 yrs
63	Justice HillBAL	RB	28.8	-60.5 #286	-60.5	-60.5	-60.5	0 yrs
64	Eli HeidenreichPITrookie	RB	23.1	-60.7 #287	-60.7	-60.7	-60.7	0 yrs
65	Jonah ColemanDENrookie	RB	23.0	-60.9 #288	-60.9	-60.9	-60.9	0 yrs
66	Kaytron AllenWASrookie	RB	23.6	-61.3 #289	-61.3	-61.3	-61.3	0 yrs
67	Max BredesonMINrookie	RB	23.9	-61.3 #290	-61.3	-61.3	-61.3	0 yrs
68	Seth McGowanINDrookie	RB	24.9	-61.5 #291	-61.5	-61.5	-61.5	0 yrs
69	Demond ClaiborneMINrookie	RB	22.9	-61.7 #294	-61.7	-61.7	-61.7	0 yrs
70	Ty JohnsonBUF	RB	29.0	-63.4 #306	-63.4	-63.4	-63.4	0 yrs
71	Raheim SandersCLE	RB	24.2	-63.6 #308	-63.6	-63.6	-63.6	0 yrs
72	Emari DemercadoDAL	RB	27.6	-63.7 #310	-63.7	-63.7	-63.7	0 yrs
73	Braelon AllenNYJ	RB	22.6	-64.8 #314	-64.8	-64.8	-64.8	0 yrs
74	Kendre MillerNO	RB	24.2	-65.0 #315	-65.0	-65.0	-65.0	0 yrs
Tier 18-68.3–-67.2
75	Keaton MitchellLAC	RB	24.6	-67.2 #326	-67.2	-67.2	-67.2	0 yrs
76	Tank BigsbyPHI	RB	24.0	-67.2 #327	-67.2	-67.2	-67.2	0 yrs
77	Isaiah DavisNYJ	RB	24.5	-67.4 #329	-67.4	-67.4	-67.4	0 yrs
78	Brashard SmithKC	RB	23.4	-68.3 #332	-68.3	-68.3	-68.3	0 yrs
Tier 19-75.2–-70.9
79	Israel AbanikandaDAL	RB	23.9	-70.9 #348	-70.9	-70.9	-70.9	0 yrs
80	Ollie Gordon IIMIA	RB	22.6	-72.5 #353	-72.5	-72.5	-72.5	0 yrs
81	Ray DavisBUF	RB	26.8	-73.4 #357	-73.4	-73.4	-73.4	0 yrs
82	CJ DonaldsonNOrookie	RB	22.1	-73.5 #358	-73.5	-73.5	-73.5	0 yrs
83	DJ HermanMIArookie	RB	24.5	-75.2 #362	-75.2	-75.2	-75.2	0 yrs
Tier 20-81.2–-79.4
84	Zach CharbonnetSEA	RB	25.6	-79.4 #376	-79.4	-79.4	-79.4	0 yrs
85	DJ GiddensIND	RB	23.0	-80.2 #381	-80.2	-80.2	-80.2	0 yrs
86	Corey KinerNE	RB	24.6	-81.1 #387	-81.1	-81.1	-81.1	0 yrs
87	Jordan JamesSF	RB	22.4	-81.2 #388	-81.2	-81.2	-81.2	0 yrs
Tier 21-84.4–-84.4
88	James ConnerARI	RB	31.3	-84.4 #400	-84.4	-84.4	-84.4	0 yrs
Tier 22-108.3–-86.4
89	Kyle JuszczykSF	RB	35.4	-86.4 #408	-86.4	-86.4	-86.4	0 yrs
90	Ameer AbdullahJAX	RB	33.2	-87.3 #416	-87.3	-87.3	-87.3	0 yrs
91	LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX	RB	22.1	-88.0 #426	-88.0	-88.0	-88.0	0 yrs
92	Kaleb JohnsonGB	RB	23.0	-89.1 #442	-89.1	-89.1	-89.1	0 yrs
93	Chris BrooksGB	RB	26.6	-89.6 #447	-89.6	-89.6	-89.6	0 yrs
94	Audric EstiméNO	RB	23.0	-90.1 #451	-90.1	-90.1	-90.1	0 yrs
95	Hunter LuepkeDAL	RB	26.5	-90.5 #455	-90.5	-90.5	-90.5	0 yrs
96	Trey BensonARI	RB	24.1	-90.5 #456	-90.5	-90.5	-90.5	0 yrs
97	Isiah PachecoDET	RB	27.5	-91.5 #464	-91.5	-91.5	-91.5	0 yrs
98	Frank Gore Jr.BUF	RB	24.5	-92.4 #474	-92.4	-92.4	-92.4	0 yrs
99	Josh WilliamsTB	RB	26.2	-92.8 #478	-92.8	-92.8	-92.8	0 yrs
100	Devin NealNO	RB	23.1	-92.8 #479	-92.8	-92.8	-92.8	0 yrs
101	Lan LarisonNE	RB	24.9	-92.9 #480	-92.9	-92.9	-92.9	0 yrs
102	Roschon JohnsonCHI	RB	25.6	-93.0 #482	-93.0	-93.0	-93.0	0 yrs
103	Connor HeywardLV	RB	27.6	-93.0 #483	-93.0	-93.0	-93.0	0 yrs
104	Will ShipleyPHI	RB	24.0	-94.0 #488	-94.0	-94.0	-94.0	0 yrs
105	Ben VanSumerenKC	RB	26.3	-94.1 #490	-94.1	-94.1	-94.1	0 yrs
106	AJ DillonCAR	RB	28.3	-95.2 #500	-95.2	-95.2	-95.2	0 yrs
107	Tyler BadieDEN	RB	27.6	-95.2 #501	-95.2	-95.2	-95.2	0 yrs
108	Alec IngoldLAC	RB	30.1	-95.3 #502	-95.3	-95.3	-95.3	0 yrs
109	Tahj BrooksCIN	RB	24.3	-96.9 #506	-96.9	-96.9	-96.9	0 yrs
110	George HolaniSEA	RB	26.7	-97.3 #509	-97.3	-97.3	-97.3	0 yrs
111	Andrew BeckNYJ	RB	30.3	-97.5 #514	-97.5	-97.5	-97.5	0 yrs
112	Adam RandallBALrookie	RB	22.1	-98.0 #516	-98.0	-98.0	-98.0	0 yrs
113	Rasheen AliBAL	RB	25.5	-98.3 #517	-98.3	-98.3	-98.3	0 yrs
114	British BrooksHOU	RB	26.8	-99.4 #519	-99.4	-99.4	-99.4	0 yrs
115	Ronnie RiversLA	RB	27.6	-99.9 #520	-99.9	-99.9	-99.9	0 yrs
116	Adam PrenticeDEN	RB	29.6	-100.6 #523	-100.6	-100.6	-100.6	0 yrs
117	DeeJay DallasMIN	RB	28.0	-100.8 #525	-100.8	-100.8	-100.8	0 yrs
118	Julius ChestnutTEN	RB	25.8	-101.4 #527	-101.4	-101.4	-101.4	0 yrs
119	Jeremy McNicholsWAS	RB	30.7	-101.5 #528	-101.5	-101.5	-101.5	0 yrs
120	Michael BurtonCLE	RB	34.6	-101.9 #529	-101.9	-101.9	-101.9	0 yrs
121	Chip TrayanumNYJrookie	RB	24.7	-101.9 #530	-101.9	-101.9	-101.9	0 yrs
122	Patrick RicardNYG	RB	32.3	-102.3 #532	-102.3	-102.3	-102.3	0 yrs
123	Myles MontgomeryNErookie	RB	23.4	-102.6 #533	-102.6	-102.6	-102.6	0 yrs
124	Sione VakiDET	RB	25.1	-102.7 #535	-102.7	-102.7	-102.7	0 yrs
125	Ty ChandlerNO	RB	28.3	-102.8 #536	-102.8	-102.8	-102.8	0 yrs
126	Velus Jones Jr.SEA	RB	29.3	-103.5 #538	-103.5	-103.5	-103.5	0 yrs
127	Dylan LaubeLV	RB	26.7	-104.0 #541	-104.0	-104.0	-104.0	0 yrs
128	Kene NwangwuNYJ	RB	28.6	-104.1 #542	-104.1	-104.1	-104.1	0 yrs
129	Malik DavisDAL	RB	27.8	-104.9 #546	-104.9	-104.9	-104.9	0 yrs
130	Reggie GilliamNE	RB	29.0	-105.0 #548	-105.0	-105.0	-105.0	0 yrs
131	Jacob SaylorsDET	RB	26.5	-105.2 #549	-105.2	-105.2	-105.2	0 yrs
132	Brady RussellSEA	RB	28.0	-105.3 #550	-105.3	-105.3	-105.3	0 yrs
133	Brittain BrownCHI	RB	28.9	-105.5 #551	-105.5	-105.5	-105.5	0 yrs
134	Scott MatlockLAC	RB	26.2	-106.0 #554	-106.0	-106.0	-106.0	0 yrs
135	Chris CollierLV	RB	26.4	-106.0 #555	-106.0	-106.0	-106.0	0 yrs
136	Trevor EtienneCAR	RB	22.1	-107.3 #564	-107.3	-107.3	-107.3	0 yrs
137	Isaac GuerendoSF	RB	26.2	-107.8 #567	-107.8	-107.8	-107.8	0 yrs
138	Robbie OuztsSEA	RB	24.0	-108.2 #571	-108.2	-108.2	-108.2	0 yrs
139	Trey SermonATL	RB	27.6	-108.3 #572	-108.3	-108.3	-108.3	0 yrs

Showing 24 of 139 · the top 139 of 139 with a value are in the page

Read itDerrick Henry (RB, 32.7) is #13 on this season’s board and #14 here; TreVeyon Henderson (RB, 23.9) goes the other way, #46 → #19. The same 2026 VORP buys different futures, and the dynasty column is where they part. The 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · half_ppr · 12 · contender 0.7×3· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version