Week 2 accuracy 2026

Every published weekly board, scored against what happened the Tuesday after — the engine's number, the baseline it starts from and the betting market on the same players. Nothing on this page is typed by hand; every row links to the board version it scores. How we score ourselves · The 2026 season report

Week 2 · scored Tue, Sep 29, 9:05 AM ET · 8 boards

Week2 3 4 5

Week 2 · PPR · the board's own score (top 36; top 24 for QB/TE/K/DST, in projected order) and the same rows re-scored from the ledger's source means — baseline = the recency baseline; market = the baseline's components with the market's value where it prices one. Green = the arm beat the board on that row, brown = it did not.
Board	MAE	ρ	Top-12	Coverage	Baseline MAE	ρ	Market MAE	ρ	Versions
QB back-filled	7.21	0.35	6 / 12	42%	7.65	0.12	7.11	0.25	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
RB back-filled	4.07	0.55	5 / 12	81%	5.06	0.44	5.28	0.38	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
WR back-filled	7.87	0.40	6 / 12	67%	6.61	0.38	7.01	0.33	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
TE back-filled	5.44	0.20	6 / 12	63%	5.86	-0.06	5.88	-0.14	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
K back-filled	4.38	-0.05	3 / 12	50%	4.15	-0.07	3.27	-0.04	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
DST back-filled	4.67	0.50	10 / 12	67%	4.46	0.14	—	—	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
Flex back-filled	6.38	0.22	5 / 12	72%	6.24	0.20	6.76	0.04	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02
Overall back-filled	7.52	0.26	4 / 12	53%	7.99	0.02	7.79	0.13	ens-fit-2026w03-mkt-2026-w2-2026-09-28+mkt-closing-2026-w02 · closing-2026-w02

The market has no defensive arm (it prices totals, not takeaways). A back-filled week is scored from data available before it — no week sees its own stats.

What the chat said · Week 2

Medians shownNo chat numbers scored this weekEvery median the chat shows is written to the forecast ledger and scored the Tuesday after.

Start/sit callsNo calls yetBrier score of P(A > B) against who actually outscored whom; skill = 1 − Brier / 0.25 (a coin flip scores 0).

How this is scoredOnly answers whose players both played are scored; locked players are excluded from calls. The gate keeps every number the chat says inside the engine's payload, so this strip measures the engine, not the model.

Definitions

maemean |projected median − actual| over the board's scored rows (top 36; top 24 for QB/TE/K/DST), in projected order

armsthe same rows re-scored from the ledger's source means under the board's format

spearmanrank correlation between projected and actual points over the same rows

top12 hitshow many of the projected top 12 finished top 12 among the board's players

retrospectivepublished after the week's first kickoff (a back-filled seed) — shown, not counted

range coverageshare of scored rows whose actual fell inside the 20–80 range