Rookie-pick values — what a slot has been worth

NFL classes 2012–2022: each class ranked by its draft-time expectation, the k-th rookie’s first 3 NFL seasons scored by the engine, value over replacement discounted 0.85 a year · 10-team Standard · the history behind a rookie pick in a dynasty draft

ScoringPPR Half Standard

Teams10 12 14

The 1.01 has been worth 121.4 points over replacement in a rookie’s first three seasons, 20–80 10.4–225.9 over 11 classes; from the 1.03 on, at least a fifth of the picks returned nothing over replacement. Top-12 RBs are the best bet over replacement (11.9 points a game as rookies, +4.1 over the position’s replacement).

Slot values · 10-team, 1QB, 40 picks

Smoothed = the value to quote: the slot means made non-increasing in the pick (weighted isotonic) — 11 classes a slot make single slots noisy. Mean and the 20–80 band (bar; tick = mean) are the raw classes. Who was there = the positions taken at the slot.
Slot	Smoothed	Mean	20–80	n	Who was there
Round 1
1.01	121.4	121.4	10.4–225.9	11	RB 100%
1.02	101.2	101.2	49.4–145.9	11	RB 100%
1.03	65.2	65.2	0.0–111.0	11	RB 82% · WR 9% · TE 9%
1.04	42.4	42.4	0.0–110.6	11	RB 55% · WR 36% · TE 9%
1.05	40.7	40.7	0.0–55.3	11	WR 64% · RB 36%
1.06	27.6	27.6	0.0–29.9	11	WR 64% · RB 27% · TE 9%
1.07	26.7	12.3	0.0–17.9	11	WR 73% · RB 27%
1.08	26.7	15.7	0.0–31.9	11	WR 55% · TE 27% · RB 18%
1.09	26.7	21.8	0.0–27.2	11	WR 55% · TE 36% · RB 9%
1.10	26.7	11.4	0.0–18.3	11	RB 55% · WR 27% · QB 9%
Round 2
2.01	26.7	56.1	0.0–64.6	11	RB 64% · TE 18% · QB 9%
2.02	26.7	27.6	0.0–18.0	11	RB 55% · TE 18% · WR 18%
2.03	26.7	42.3	0.0–72.6	11	RB 46% · TE 36% · WR 9%
2.04	24.2	21.5	0.0–26.5	11	TE 36% · RB 36% · QB 18%
2.05	24.2	27.0	0.0–26.9	11	QB 36% · TE 27% · WR 18%
2.06	19.1	11.6	0.0–5.6	11	WR 36% · QB 27% · TE 27%
2.07	19.1	22.4	0.0–72.3	11	QB 36% · WR 36% · TE 27%
2.08	19.1	23.2	0.0–44.7	11	WR 46% · TE 27% · QB 27%
2.09	14.9	9.3	0.0–10.2	11	WR 55% · TE 27% · QB 18%
2.10	14.9	20.6	0.0–27.8	11	WR 64% · TE 18% · QB 18%
Round 3
3.01	8.6	2.9	0.0–0.0	11	WR 64% · TE 36%
3.02	8.6	14.2	0.0–8.2	11	WR 55% · TE 46%
3.03	8.6	2.7	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 27%
3.04	8.6	1.5	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · WR 27%
3.05	8.6	15.6	0.0–23.8	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
3.06	8.6	14.7	0.0–8.3	11	TE 82% · WR 18%
3.07	4.6	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · RB 9% · WR 9%
3.08	4.6	1.2	0.0–0.0	11	TE 91% · RB 9%
3.09	4.6	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · RB 18%
3.10	4.6	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 82% · RB 18%
Round 4
4.01	4.6	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	TE 73% · RB 27%
4.02	4.6	14.3	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 36%
4.03	4.6	7.2	0.0–0.0	11	TE 64% · RB 36%
4.04	4.6	0.6	0.0–0.0	11	TE 55% · RB 46%
4.05	4.6	5.1	0.0–0.0	11	RB 64% · TE 36%
4.06	4.6	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.07	4.6	3.8	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.08	4.6	23.4	0.0–0.0	11	RB 73% · TE 27%
4.09	2.3	2.3	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%
4.10	0.0	0.0	0.0–0.0	11	RB 91% · TE 9%

Showing 20 of 40 · rounds 3–4 are in the page

The classes, with namesThis page is the history a pick buys into; the class pages rank the real rookies in the same unit: the 2026 rookie class.

What the value isEach class is ranked the way a rookie draft ranks it — by the per-game points rookies of that position and NFL draft capital have scored, over the position’s replacement — and slot k takes the k-th. His value = Σ over his first 3 seasons of 0.85^t × (season points − that season’s replacement level), a season under replacement counting 0. A bust is worth 0, never less.

Read the small cells with care11 classes behind every slot (2,105 rookies in all), so neighbours can swap by luck — quote the smoothed column. Ranking by capital alone is blind to college production, landing spot and development: tight ends and receivers who grow into years 2–3 are under-ranked.

Rookie points per game · by NFL draft capital × position, Standard

the order above ranks these cells

Big number = points per game played in the rookie season (engine-scored, rookie seasons 2012–2025) · second line = over the position’s replacement per game in a 10-team league (what orders the class) · n = rookies and games behind the cell; “small” = fewer than 12 rookies.
NFL draft capital	QB	RB	WR	TE
Picks 1–12first round, top 12	14.7−2.4 over replacementn 33 · 418 games	11.9+4.1 over replacementn 9 · 137 games · small	7.5−0.4 over replacementn 21 · 295 games	4.2−1.5 over replacementn 4 · 57 games · small
Picks 13–32rest of round 1	12.0−5.0 over replacementn 10 · 114 games · small	8.6+0.9 over replacementn 10 · 140 games · small	6.4−1.5 over replacementn 35 · 455 games	4.8−0.9 over replacementn 10 · 141 games · small
Round 2	10.9−6.1 over replacementn 9 · 96 games · small	8.4+0.7 over replacementn 33 · 417 games	5.2−2.7 over replacementn 66 · 861 games	3.6−2.1 over replacementn 29 · 347 games
Round 3	10.7−6.4 over replacementn 18 · 105 games	6.1−1.6 over replacementn 45 · 524 games	3.8−4.1 over replacementn 70 · 830 games	3.0−2.7 over replacementn 30 · 284 games
Rounds 4–7	9.4−7.7 over replacementn 31 · 144 games	4.1−3.6 over replacementn 168 · 1,644 games	2.6−5.3 over replacementn 174 · 1,471 games	2.4−3.4 over replacementn 90 · 662 games
Undrafted	8.6−8.4 over replacementn 16 · 66 games	3.3−4.4 over replacementn 153 · 875 games	2.0−5.9 over replacementn 198 · 1,185 games	1.5−4.2 over replacementn 98 · 403 games
All rookies	12.0n 117 · 943 games	5.3n 418 · 3,737 games	3.8n 564 · 5,097 games	2.8n 261 · 1,894 games

Versionsrookie picks standard · 10· classes 2012–2022· fitted 2026-09-29T08:40:32Z· rookie means season_params.json rookie [2012, 2025]· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version