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Dynasty Rankings — QB, PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2031, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPRHalfStandard
Dynasty value
value = Σt over 2026–2031 VORP(t) × survival(t) × discountt
VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).
Stated constants
Discount
0.90 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon
6 years (2026–2031)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves
by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94
Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by rebuild dynasty value

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the rebuild values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team PPR draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#PlayerPosAge2026 VORP6-yr value · 0.90ContenderBalancedYears of value left
Tier 1186.6–188.3
1Drake MayeNEQB24.049.8 #26188.3101.8157.46 yrs
2Josh AllenBUFQB30.359.1 #18186.6116.3165.66 yrs
Tier 257.6–73.8
3Jalen HurtsPHIQB28.126.0 #4373.850.168.85 yrs
4Brock PurdySFQB26.724.7 #4773.647.266.66 yrs
5Bo NixDENQB26.522.6 #5265.142.859.56 yrs
6Caleb WilliamsCHIQB24.820.5 #5557.638.552.56 yrs
Tier 329.1–32.9
7Trevor LawrenceJAXQB26.914.6 #6232.925.831.34 yrs
8Matthew StaffordLAQB38.624.7 #4629.128.128.92 yrs
Tier 4-4.9–16.8
9Patrick MahomesKCQB31.011.9 #6916.815.716.52 yrs
10Jayden DanielsWASQB25.77.2 #7510.69.810.43 yrs
11Justin HerbertLACQB28.54.6 #805.55.35.52 yrs
12Jared GoffDETQB31.92.1 #862.12.12.11 yr
13Jaxson DartNYGQB23.30.0 #910.00.00.00 yrs
14Dak PrescottDALQB33.1-1.7 #95-1.7-1.7-1.70 yrs
15Lamar JacksonBALQB29.6-2.8 #96-2.8-2.8-2.80 yrs
16Baker MayfieldTBQB31.4-4.9 #101-4.9-4.9-4.90 yrs
Tier 5-12.4–-12.4
17C.J. StroudHOUQB24.9-12.4 #117-12.4-12.4-12.40 yrs
Tier 6-30.3–-25.9
18Jordan LoveGBQB27.8-25.9 #154-25.9-25.9-25.90 yrs
19Aaron RodgersPITQB42.7-29.0 #161-29.0-29.0-29.00 yrs
20Joe BurrowCINQB29.7-30.3 #165-30.3-30.3-30.30 yrs
Tier 7-40.0–-38.5
21Kyler MurrayMINQB29.1-38.5 #179-38.5-38.5-38.50 yrs
22Fernando MendozaLVrookieQB22.9-40.0 #188-40.0-40.0-40.00 yrs
Tier 8-47.8–-47.8
23Sam DarnoldSEAQB29.2-47.8 #208-47.8-47.8-47.80 yrs
Tier 9-54.0–-51.8
24Bryce YoungCARQB25.1-51.8 #224-51.8-51.8-51.80 yrs
Showing 24 of 94 · the top 94 of 94 with a value are in the page

Read itThe 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · ppr · 12 · rebuild 0.9×6· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version