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Dynasty Rankings — Rookies, Half-PPR

By Red Zone Rank engine · value over replacement for 2026–2031, discounted, with each position’s aging curve and the chance a player’s career continues · 12-team · 2026 values are the draft-time board’s

ScoringPPRHalfStandard
Dynasty value
value = Σt over 2026–2031 VORP(t) × survival(t) × discountt
VORP(t) = this season’s projection carried forward on the position’s aging curve, minus this season’s replacement level (held: a position is refilled by younger players); future seasons below replacement count 0. survival(t) = the chance his career is still going in year t. One year and a discount of 1 give back this season’s VORP exactly (a test).
Stated constants
Discount
0.90 a yearProposed default · Jon to confirm
Horizon
6 years (2026–2031)Proposed default · Jon to confirm
Curves
by position, fitted on nflverse 2006–2025 (11,984 player-seasons), the survivor curve × survival · fitted Sep 29, 2026QB 25→30 ×0.92 · survival 0.94RB 25→30 ×0.59 · survival 0.75WR 25→30 ×0.70 · survival 0.91TE 25→30 ×0.80 · survival 0.94
Your windowThe window changes the discount and the horizon: contender 2026–2028 at 0.70 a year, balanced 2026–2030 at 0.85 a year, rebuild 2026–2031 at 0.90 a year. The other two windows are columns below, so the effect is visible.Proposed defaults · Jon to confirm

Top 24 · by rebuild dynasty value, rookies only

Tiers: the engine’s rule (a drop more than twice the typical nearby drop and at least 2 points) on the rebuild values. 2026 VORP is the 12-team Half-PPR draft board’s, with its rank on that board. Years of value left = seasons in the window with projected VORP above replacement.
#PlayerPosAge2026 VORP6-yr value · 0.90ContenderBalancedYears of value left
Tier 1337.0–337.0
1Jeremiyah LoveARIrookieRB21.356.4 #16337.0147.4267.46 yrs
Tier 2158.8–158.8
2Carnell TateTENrookieWR21.610.2 #68158.849.2116.66 yrs
Tier 336.0–38.4
3Jadarian PriceSEArookieRB22.911.1 #6538.426.435.85 yrs
4Kenyon SadiqNYJrookieTE21.5-14.7 #12736.0-9.217.64 yrs
Tier 4-15.7–4.6
5KC ConcepcionCLErookieWR21.9-15.3 #1304.6-12.8-0.94 yrs
6Makai LemonPHIrookieWR22.2-15.0 #128-6.0-13.7-7.53 yrs
7Omar Cooper Jr.NYJrookieWR22.7-15.7 #132-15.7-15.7-15.70 yrs
Tier 5-31.1–-31.1
8Kaelon BlackSFrookieRB24.9-31.1 #175-31.1-31.1-31.10 yrs
Tier 6-40.0–-38.6
9De'Zhaun StriblingSFrookieWR23.7-38.6 #195-38.6-38.6-38.60 yrs
10Denzel BostonCLErookieWR22.7-38.9 #196-38.9-38.9-38.90 yrs
11Germie BernardPITrookieWR22.7-39.5 #199-39.5-39.5-39.50 yrs
12Fernando MendozaLVrookieQB22.9-40.0 #202-40.0-40.0-40.00 yrs
Tier 7-44.3–-42.2
13Marlin KleinHOUrookieTE24.0-42.2 #206-42.2-42.2-42.20 yrs
14Max KlareLArookieTE23.2-43.7 #212-43.7-43.7-43.70 yrs
15Nate BoerkircherJAXrookieTE25.0-44.3 #214-44.3-44.3-44.30 yrs
Tier 8-55.2–-54.1
16Eli RaridonNErookieTE22.6-54.1 #252-54.1-54.1-54.10 yrs
17Oscar DelpNOrookieTE23.1-54.3 #253-54.3-54.3-54.30 yrs
18Will KacmarekMIArookieTE23.6-55.0 #256-55.0-55.0-55.00 yrs
19Sam RoushCHIrookieTE23.0-55.2 #257-55.2-55.2-55.20 yrs
Tier 9-66.1–-58.6
20Mike Washington Jr.LVrookieRB23.2-58.6 #271-58.6-58.6-58.60 yrs
21Nicholas SingletonTENrookieRB22.7-59.3 #275-59.3-59.3-59.30 yrs
22Emmett JohnsonKCrookieRB22.9-60.2 #284-60.2-60.2-60.20 yrs
23Eli HeidenreichPITrookieRB23.1-60.7 #287-60.7-60.7-60.70 yrs
24Jonah ColemanDENrookieRB23.0-60.9 #288-60.9-60.9-60.90 yrs
Showing 24 of 99 · the top 99 of 99 with a value are in the page

Read itThe 2027 rookie class joins in item 10. 5 deep players without an age get no value. Rookie picks: what each slot has been worth; keepers on this basis: keeper calculator.

VersionsBoard dynasty · half_ppr · 12 · rebuild 0.9×6· season fit season-fit-2019-2025· table 2026-w01-roster· aging curves survivor · fitted 2026-09-29T08:35:55Z· engine build aabb2e5· Report a problem with this version